Future projection of the Ocean Dynamic Sea Level over the Irish-Nordic-Arctic Seas under different global warming thresholds

The Arctic is a complex system in which ocean, sea ice, land, and atmosphere all interact. Poleward energy transport is crucial for climate variability in the Arctic and is controlled by atmospheric transport at the middle-high latitudes. The ocean has been rising non-uniformly under global warming. The future state of the ocean on a regional scale is uncertain. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides different scenarios (SSPs 1.26, 2.45, 5.85) that give insights into this uncertainty across the chosen regions under different global warming thresholds. Here, we show that with every degree change in the global warming threshold, there is a corresponding change in the ocean dynamic sea level (DSL). The Arctic, Irish and Norwegian coasts respond at different scales under the global warming thresholds. This study provides insight into the Irish-Nordic-Arctic Sea's future state, which is necessary for policy formulation and planning.