The Arctic region has undergone drastic changes over the last decades, with sea ice decline being the most obvious and prominent example. The ice cover has become thinner and more fragile, drifting faster and more freely. Extreme temperatures are now more common, with 2023 recording the warmest summer temperatures ever. The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, accelerating ice sheet melting, sea ice loss in the Kara and Laptev Seas, permafrost thawing, glacier retreat, and forest fires. The resulting changes in the Arctic Ocean include an increased freshwater volume, heightened coastal runoff from Siberia and Greenland, and greater exchanges with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, all of which have significant consequences for the fragile Arctic ecosystems.
As global temperatures continue to rise, model projections suggest that the Arctic Ocean could become seasonally ice-free by mid-century, raising critical questions for the Arctic research community: What could the Arctic Ocean look like in the future? How will the present changes in the Arctic affect and be affected by the lower latitudes? Which oceanic processes drive this sea-ice loss and how will they change in a sea ice-free Arctic? What aspects of the changing Arctic should observational, remote sensing and modeling programs prioritize?
In this session, we invite contributions from a variety of studies on the recent past, present and future Arctic. We welcome submissions that explore interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice; Arctic processes and feedbacks; small-scale processes, internal waves, and mixing; and the interactions between the Arctic and global oceans. We especially welcome submissions that take a cross-disciplinary approach, focusing on new oceanic, cryospheric, and biogeochemical processes as well as their connections to land.
We want to spark discussions on future plans for Arctic Ocean measurement, remote sensing, and modeling strategies, including the upcoming CMIP7 cycle and ways to validate and improve models using observations. We encourage submissions on CMIP modeling approaches and recent observational programs like MOSAiC, the Nansen Legacy Project and the Synoptic Arctic Survey. We also welcome anyone involved in planning the upcoming International Polar Year 2032-33 to participate in our session and contribute to the discussions.