Advancing sustainable agricultural water management in agribusiness systems: a case study of the chtouka plain, morocco

The rapid proliferation of plastic-covered greenhouses (PCGs) in Morocco’s Souss-Massa region has significantly intensified groundwater depletion, posing severe risks to local water resources and threatening the sustainability of agricultural livelihoods. This study evaluates the evolving water demand driven by agricultural expansion and investigates the role of a desalination plant in mitigating groundwater overexploitation in the Chtouka plain. An integrated methodology combining remote sensing data, CropWat modeling, and field surveys provides a comprehensive assessment of current and future water needs. Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery spanning 1990 to 2023 was utilized to monitor the growth of PCGs, employing both object-oriented (OB) and pixel-based (PB) classification techniques. The analysis demonstrated that object-oriented classification yielded a high accuracy of 89.35% and a Cohen’s kappa coefficient of 0.78 in 2023, underscoring its effectiveness in mapping PCG expansion. The analysis revealed greenhouse areas of 11,468 hectares in 2015, 19,474 hectares in 2020, and 20,695 hectares in 2023. Projections based on the quadratic trend estimate the greenhouse area will reach approximately 31,658 hectares by 2050, with annual growth rates of 2.06% (2020–2025) and 1.90% (2025–2030), providing a solid foundation for understanding and planning future expansion. On the other hand, the CropWat model further estimated crop irrigation requirements (CIR) under current and future scenarios, emphasizing the vital role of the desalination plant in reducing reliance on groundwater resources. Initially designed to produce 275,000 m³/day, with 125,000 m³/day allocated for agricultural purposes, the plant currently supplies 200,000 m³/day, amounting to 48.62 million cubic meters (Mm³) annually for irrigation. By 2050, desalination output is projected to reach 80 Mm³/year, covering 60% of total crop irrigation requirements. However, as future demand is forecasted to rise to 73 Mm³/year, additional measures will be necessary to close the water deficit. To address the impending shortfall, the study advocates for the adoption of advanced irrigation techniques, the enforcement of stricter groundwater extraction regulations, and the expansion of desalination infrastructure. Additionally, promoting farmer education and training in sustainable water practices is emphasized as a vital component for long-term resource preservation and agricultural resilience.
Keywords : Sustainable water practices, Desalination plant, Crop irrigation requirement (CIR), Plastic-covered greenhouses (PCGs).