Forecasting Changes on Vulnerable Shorelines: Methodological Approaches for Developing a Coastal Vulnerability Index in Southeast Cyprus

Coastal erosion is a long-standing global concern. It affects a growing number of coastal sites and constitutes a major threat to coastal zones, with the most significant natural factor driving this phenomenon being sea level rise. In this context, the development of a reliable predictive model for future coastline changes has become increasingly important, particularly in areas such as the eastern Mediterranean façades, where the interplay between rising sea levels, coastal environment dynamics, and human activities is dramatically altering the coastline.
A characteristic case is the broader area of Southeast Cyprus, where substantial changes in the low-relief coastal zone are observed, posing a major risk to a significant portion of its coastal space. This results in direct socio-economic, environmental, and other consequences for the region. 
This research explores these challenges by proposing an innovative methodological approach for developing a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) tailored to the coastal zone of Ayia Napa, Southeast Cyprus. To achieve this, the study establishes the chronological framework of sea transgression (past shoreline positions) and the sedimentation regimes in the selected coastal area-an accomplishment that has not been pursued before. Subsequently, the evolution of the coastal zone is assessed in the short and long term, and a risk assessment is conducted using a systematic and integrative approach to identify and quantify the physical characteristics of the area, backed by the analysis of historical archives on coastal erosion. Building upon these findings, the CVI incorporates seven variables: geomorphology, grain size analysis, coastal slope, relative sea level change, mean tidal range, mean wave height and wind direction regime. The reliability of the proposed CVI is checked by examining the rate of historical shoreline movement. 
Finally, the CVI is applied, utilizing the produced analytical data under three different sea level rise scenarios (current, 2050, and 2100). This leads to the development of a series of digital maps (for each scenario), depicting both the future shoreline positions and the vulnerability of the coastal zone in response to rising sea levels.
This research introduces methodological advancements by building upon the extensive application of CVIs and incorporating new variables with a novel methodological approach, providing new insights to the scientific community. Hence, this study not only addresses a research challenge within the chosen coastal area, but also opens new horizons for the integrated management of coastal zones elsewhere.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No 101034403.