A Multi-Risk Storyline Framework for Urban Disaster Risk Management: the case of Genoa

This study introduces a multi-risk storyline framework with the municipality of Genoa as a case study. Risk storylines are narrative-based tools that describes how hazards interact, evolve, and cause cascading impacts in a specific context. They can provide a holistic, accessible understanding of multi-hazard scenarios especially within dense and complex urban environments, helping policymakers and stakeholders prepare for and mitigate cascading events. The research contributes to advancing the understanding of risks posed by extreme natural events in relation to urban settlements, a key pillar of the 2015 UNDRR Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. The necessity of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) to anticipate the exacerbation of natural hazards due to climate change further underscores the importance of this work. The study was developed within the Extended Partnership (EP) RETURN initiative, focusing on enhancing multi-risk science to build resilient communities in a changing climate.

Genoa, a coastal metropolitan area characterized by a complex topography, dense urbanization, and susceptibility to a range of climatic, hydraulic, and geophysical hazards, serves as case study for the application of the storyline framework. Sequential and compounding events such as heatwaves, thunderstorms, floods, landslides, and earthquakes are analyzed within this context, highlighting their interactions and cumulative impacts: The urban heat island effect intensifies heatwave-related risks, particularly for vulnerable populations residing in poorly ventilated or retrofitted buildings, thunderstorms frequently trigger surface flooding due to impermeable urban surfaces and overwhelmed drainage systems, while hydrogeological instability in hilly peri-urban areas leads to landslides. The cascading effects of these hazards amplify damage when followed by moderate earthquakes, particularly in historical and ageing structures. This study identifies key vulnerabilities in Genoa, including ageing infrastructure, poorly maintained or retrofitted buildings, flood-prone urban areas, and limited emergency response capabilities due to a fragmented transportation network. These vulnerabilities exacerbate risks such as damage to buildings and infrastructure, increased morbidity and mortality, displacement, economic losses, and environmental degradation. Furthermore, cascading impacts strain public health systems and critical services, creating long-term socio-economic challenges for residents and businesses alike. Aligned with RETURN’s core objective of fostering resilient communities, the study emphasizes the need for integrated urban planning and multi-risk management strategies, suggesting recommendations to upgrade critical infrastructure, retrofit vulnerable buildings, improve emergency response systems, and leveraging participatory approaches to engage stakeholders across public, private, and academic sectors. By applying the risk storyline framework, the study not only improves DRM strategies in Genoa but also provides a replicable model for other urban areas facing compounding risks.