Climate modelling of the Reynoutria japonica Houtt. distribution for 14 European countries. Impact on biodiversity, the need for risk management

Modelling of the current and potential distribution of Reynoutria japonica Houtt. in the territories of 14 European countries, including Ukraine, has been conducted using the maximum entropy approach in the Maxent software package. The changes in the distribution area and ecological niche have been forecast based on two climate change scenarios up to 2100. Based on 19 170 records R. japonica of the database GBIF, it has been demonstrated that Europe is suitable for the establishment of this taxon, including mountainous areas. The distribution of species in Germany and Ukraine by biotopes depending on climate change has been studied. It has been found that the range will expand into northern zones by 13.6% or 17.0%, depending on the scenario. However, the contraction of the distribution area in the southern regions amounts to 26%, resulting in a slight contraction of the range (by 9-13%) by 2100 due to a reduction in the distribution areas in the southern regions of Europe, where maximum air temperatures will increase. The most important climatic variables affecting distribution are temperature variability throughout the year (seasonality) due to the significant difference in temperatures in summer and winter, the average temperature of the driest quarter, isothermality (the ratio of the mean annual temperature to the mean annual temperature range), the average temperature and precipitation of the warmest quarter, particularly the temperature variability throughout the year and precipitation in the warmest quarter, which are limiting factors for distribution. The minimum temperature of the growing season will affect the distribution in forecasts up to 2060, but this parameter does not have a limiting effect under current climate conditions. An assessment and forecast of the increasing harmful impact of Reynoutria taxa on ecosystems and biodiversity, considering climate changes and the impact of military actions in Ukraine, has been given. A general algorithm for controlling Reynoutria Houtt invasions have been developed, which can be used at the state and interstate levels. The risks of Reynoutria taxa invasions have been assessed, including specific threats to the territory of Ukraine, which will contribute to significant invasions of representatives of this genus in the future. The results are important for early detection, assessment and monitoring, management of the spread of the taxon in protected areas, and urban green infrastructure.

For the first time, a risk assessment and climate modelling of the distribution of R. japonica have been conducted in Europe and Ukraine and are important for threat assessment and effective ecosystem management and prevention of threats to the destruction or restructuring of biodiversity.