Merging industrial ecology tool and optimization model into energy system planning- A case study of assessing metal constraints under China’s large-scale development of wind-power and PV

Energy transition is essential to halt the rise in global temperature. However, energy system may step into a new era of resource dependence, for instance on land, biomass, water and metal. Neglecting resource constraints may compromise the quickly ramp-up of renewables that are required by strict climate targets. Hence, it is vital to adapt cross-system way when conducting energy system planning. In this work, we put forward a framework that can merge industrial ecology tool and optimization model into energy system planning. The dynamic material flow analysis tool is used to quantify the metal requirement in energy scenario, while the linear programming model is used to optimize the energy pathways considering metal availability. We prove the effectiveness of this framework by assessing the metal constraints under China’s large-scale development of wind-power and PV. The results show that: (1) Overall metal requirement of China’s wind-power and PV sector is around 1 billion tons up to 2060, while recycling could conserve 20% of primary metal demand. (2) Copper, Nickel, Dysprosium, Tellurium, Zinc and silver could constraints the development of China’s wind-power and PV. (3) Adjusting the pathways to “first slow then fast” can eliminate the cumulative demand of Ag, Cu, Dy by 15%, 8% and 3% respectively. We highlight that the energy-metal nexus relationship should be treated as an endogenous module in the integrated assessment model. The side effect of increasing metal demand due to energy transition should be assessed in the future to decarbonize the metal supply process.