Industrial production is built on machinery and equipment capital, which comprises the vast range of tools essential to many industries. As automation and robotics accelerate, service sectors also rely more on machinery. Meanwhile, the shift toward sustainable energy systems and circular economies highlights the importance of machinery that includes wind turbines, batteries, and waste-sorting robots. Using input–output analysis, we found that one-third of the world’s metal production is used for machinery and equipment, contributing to 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Our empirical analysis has examined the material and carbon footprints of machinery capital, yet we still lack a clear understanding of how much machinery will be needed in the future and the resulting material and carbon implications. Important demand drivers are the industrialization of developing countries, which today exhibit much lower machinery stocks than industrialized countries, beginning automation in the service sectors, and the needs of the energy transition.
In the pursuit of a climate-neutral society, machinery production merits careful attention due to its dual role. While it serves as a key enabler of technological transitions, producing and operating machinery can also result in significant environmental impacts.
To address these concerns, we developed a scenario-based model that explores machinery’s future material and carbon impacts, supported by the Circular Economy Modelling for Climate Change Mitigation (CircoMod) project. This approach provides a common framework for integrating existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with NTNU’s forward-looking multi-regional input–output (MRIO) scenarios, EXIOFUTURE. Our work applies existing shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios and a CircoMod baseline, integrating transformative change and capital dynamics in the industrial sector. Through this modeling, we aim to better identify circular economy and climate mitigation solutions for society’s most significant uses of metals, machinery, and equipment, and to build stronger material demand scenarios. Although still in the early stages, our findings shed light on how machinery production might evolve to support a more sustainable and climate-neutral future.
How to cite: Hertwich, E., Jiang, M., Liu, Y., Della Bella, S., and Wood, R.: Representing material stocks and flows for machinery and equipment in scenario models capturing circular economy and resource efficiency opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6952, 2025.
Steel, cement, and chemical products, which serve as the foundation of economic development and daily life, account for 70% of annual greenhouse gas emissions of global basic material production and 16% of total anthropogenic emissions. Emission reduction is urgently needed to meet climate targets. However, these sectors are considered hard-to-abate: Mitigation options for primary production of material such as hydrogen- and bio-based processes, or carbon capture and storage (CCS) are indispensable, but face challenges such as high costs, often low technological maturity and sometimes limitations in their sustainable potential. This causes substantial uncertainty with respect to their short-term availability and long-term feasibility. Therefore, circular economy (CE) approaches - which reduce primary material demands through measures like material substitution, light-weighting, and recycling - are promising complementary alternatives partially due to their scalability, economic viability, and sometimes potential for early implementation. Moreover, they come with the co-benefit of mitigating other adverse effects of primary material production chains such as water use and pollution. Previous scenario modeling studies have explored material transition opportunities through two main approaches: technological substitution in production processes, and strategies from CE such as improvements in material efficiency and enhanced recycling and reuse. To fully capture these transformation options, as well as their interactions, the two research communities of scenario modeling and industrial ecology have increasingly collaborated in recent years. Here, we present REMIND Materials, an integrated approach that couples the integrated assessment model (IAM) REMIND with a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) framework. REMIND links a macroeconomic general equilibrium model with a bottom-up engineering-based energy system model. REMIND Materials adds process-based modeling of steel, cement, and chemical production. The MFA framework, represented by the in-house SIMSON model, captures demand, use, and recycling dynamics, enabling the representation of circular economy (CE) strategies such as recycling, reuse, and material efficiency improvements. This integration provides a comprehensive lifecycle perspective on energy-intensive industry pathways to carbon neutrality, including production process transformations, demand-side mitigation measures, and end-of-life strategies. This facilitates not only to investigate each single strategy’s impacts and potentials, but also to demonstrate the strong synergies and economic interactions between different mitigation options. The holistic approach provides decision-makers with critical insights to shape transition pathways that balance climate goals with economic feasibility.
Figure. REMIND Material Model Framework Overview
How to cite: Zhang, Q., Dürrwächter, J., Hosak, M., Weiss, B., Pehl, M., Chen, W., and Ueckerdt, F.: REMIND Materials: Coupling IAM and MFA to Model Synergies of Circular Economy and Decarbonization of Energy-Intensive Industries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17254, 2025.
Building construction and use are major drivers of climate change. To avoid these impacts, research is exploring the potential of narrowing material and energy cycles (“narrow” strategies) by reducing floor area per capita. Yet, integrated assessment models (IAM) have mostly overlooked material stocks and flow, service levels, and geospatial location of buildings. Thus, they have only limited capacity in modelling such floor area dynamics which are dependent on urbanization trends and changes in dwelling preferences. Current modelling of narrow strategies in IAMs, where available, is therefore focused on normative targets of overall reduction in floor area per capita without consideration of local building stock limitations. Inspired by recent advances in urban metabolism studies of representing urban form in material and energy flow modelling, we propose an integration of detailed geospatial building and material stock accounts with IAMs. Specifically, we demonstrate how the open-source building stock database EUBUCCO can inform the modelling of narrow strategies in the building sector model MESSAGEix-Buildings by adding subnational detail and urban density parameters. EUBUCCO is the first near-complete 3D model of individual buildings including building footprints, heights, usage types and material content in Europe. The database is a collection of government, volunteered, and satellite-derived data, and missing attribute values are inferred with machine learning. Material content is based on the globally harmonized material intensity database RASMI. MESSAGEix-Buildings is a framework to model the material stocks and flows and energy demand of buildings at national or larger scales in future scenarios. Embedding material flow analysis for stock turnover accounting and energy demand modelling at sectoral level, the framework is soft-linked to the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM IAM to account for demand and supply sides interactions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different climate policies. EUBUCCO is integrated in MESSAGEix-Buildings by differentiating building and material stocks, as well as demographic trends and climate, at NUTS2 level and degree of urbanicity. This enables for improved representation of floor area and urban form-related aspects, and their regional distributions. With this geospatially informed IAM module, we can model the effect of regionally differentiated floor area reduction pathways, consider population-trend-dependent urban mining potentials, and effects of reverse urbanization such as revitalization of rural building stocks. Ultimately, this integrated module can inform prioritization of such reuse and reduce strategies for climate change mitigation in the housing sector.
How to cite: Kopp, M. and Mastrucci, A.: Narrowing cycles but where? Geospatial material and building stocks in IAMs to inform reduce and reuse pathways , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12127, 2025.
In the global push to address climate change, bulk materials play a critical role due to their significant energy use and CO₂ emissions. While supply-side strategies are emphasized, they are also frequently criticized for unrealistic techno-optimism. Hence, there is increasing recognition, supported by authoritative sources including IPCC reports, that demand-side strategies are equally essential. Demand-side strategies—including more intensive use, extended lifetimes, material-efficient design, and optimized end-of-life processes—offer promising pathways to decarbonize bulk materials by reducing consumption without compromising quality of life. Additionally, demand-side exert systemic impacts on supply chains, investment trends, production costs, and broader environmental factors such as land use, water resources, and pollution. Therefore, an integrated assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of demand-side strategies, as well as the synergies between demand- and supply-side approaches, is crucial for developing effective decarbonization pathways.
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are well-established tools for evaluating the systemic impacts of decarbonization strategies. While traditional IAMs offer detailed representations of supply-side technologies, their demand forecasts—especially for material demand—are often based on socio-economic assumptions and historical data. This sector-specific, isolated approach for material demand projections could result in inconsistent, detail-lacking forecasts that may violate conservation of matter. Addressing these limitations requires a unified framework for demand forecasts that ensures sectoral consistency and aligns with harmonized assumptions, thereby accurately capturing material flows driven by social demand.
Figure 1 Conceptual framework of coupled model
In this study, we couple dynamic Material Flow Analysis (MFA) with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enhance material demand forecasts. We use steel as the representative bulk material due to its significant energy use, emissions, and strong links to key end-use demands affected by demand-side strategies. As illustrated in Figure 1, the coupled modeling approach begins with harmonized socio-economic assumptions, such as population and social wealth, ensuring consistency inside the coupled model. Using historical data on in-use product stocks, the model projects future product stocks across sectors including transportation, buildings, machinery, and others. These projected product stocks are then aligned with the end use demand in IAMs, including mobility and housing requirements. The projected product stock translates into future material inflows through stock-driven modeling, lifetime functions, and material intensity factors. Material outflows, including end-of-life scrap, are accounted for as secondary production through recycling processes. The remaining material demand necessary to sustain societal well-being is aligned with the industrial production demand represented in IAMs, while material inflows are dynamically adjusted based on endogenous material prices within the IAM.
This soft linking between IAMs and dynamic MFA establishes a coupled modeling framework to evaluating the systemic impacts of demand-side strategies on bulk materials. Beyond directly reducing product consumption and material production, demand-side strategies can substantially alleviate the burden on supply-side transformations needed to meet emission targets. This, consequently, can shift production roadmaps, reducing both investment and production costs. By integrating demand- and supply-side strategies, this framework offers a cost-effective pathway to decarbonize the bulk material loop and achieve societal emission targets.
How to cite: Song, J., Cao, Z., Dai, H., and Ou, Y.: Evaluating the Systemic Impacts of Demand-Side Strategies on Bulk Materials through Coupled Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Integrated Assessment Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-641, 2025.
As global wealth and population have grown, the world’s demand for materials has tripled since 1970, raising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from material production, extraction and use due to their intensive energy requirements (United Nations Environment Programme, 2024). The circular economy (CE) is considered a novel approach to production and consumption systems that emphasises cyclical, renewable arrangements that extend the life and usefulness of materials and resources (Korhonen et al., 2018), drawing extensively from work undertaken in the Industrial Ecology (IE) field. The transition to a CE is anticipated to have a profound impact on GHG emissions (Khalifa et al., 2022) across various sectors (Cantzler et al., 2020). Given this mitigation potential, calls have been made for Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to better integrate modelling of material stocks and flows (Pauliuk et al., 2017), enabling more comprehensive representation of material efficiency and CE strategies (Ünlü et al., 2024).
However, both IAMs and CE scholars have faced significant criticism for their inadequate consideration of the so-called “Global South”. IAMs have been shown: to be insensitive to developmental needs (van Ruijven et al., 2008); to poorly interpret low-income economic and energy dynamics (Lucas et al., 2015); and to underrepresent Global South participants in scenario and model development (Miguel et al., 2019). Meanwhile, the Global South has been relatively obscured from dominant narratives of CE predicated on corporate leadership, technocratic solutions (Kirchherr et al., 2017) and decoupling growth from environmental impacts (Ghisellini et al., 2016). Global South circularity is shown to be more often necessity- and value-driven, building on bottom-up adaptive community and informal economic practices that respond to limited services and material scarcity (Korsunova et al., 2022; Schröder et al., 2019). Critically, there is now an opportunity within the IAM community to respond to these differing manifestations of circularity as model development is underway, widening the relevance of IAMs to academics and decision-makers operating in the Global South.
In this paper, we aim to understand how process-based IAMs can better integrate the unique contexts and processes of the Global South while developing and extending modelling frameworks to better assess material cycles and CE strategies for climate change mitigation. First, we review the literature on Global South CE for climate change mitigation from which we derive five major modelling challenges for Global South circularity in IAMs, namely scalability, informality, applicability, developmental trade-offs and measurability. Then, we conduct interviews with IAM developers working on CE-related or Global South-based modelling to understand (1) the major factors involved in integrating material stocks and flows into process-based IAMs and (2) how these factors interact with the five aforementioned major challenges for modelling Global South circularity. We combine the insights from both the literature review and expert interviews to suggest improvements for modelling the Global South in IAM-material models from both theoretical and technical perspectives. Overall, our paper contributes actionable recommendations for modellers seeking to redress concerns around the equity and representativeness of climate mitigation models and scenarios and their applicability to diverse socioeconomic contexts.
How to cite: Haswell, F., Edelenbosch, O., Piscicelli, L., Straub, L., and van Vuuren, D.: Global South circularity for climate change mitigation: insights into Integrated Assessment Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19348, 2025.
Climate scenario results are increasingly being used by a wide range of stakeholders outside traditional climate policymaking, such as bankers assessing ESG disclosures or companies planning sustainability strategies. However, the broad, global, and generalized nature of these scenarios often leads to misinterpretation or misuse, highlighting the importance of high-resolution, sector-specific representation for more practical applications.
Based on the technology-rich process modeling of the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, we present the updated version with high-resolution endogenized demand sectors (MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_2.0_BMT, where B represents Building, M for Material, and T for Transport) that will be able to: i) capture energy and material flows through the full supply chain across regions; ii) apply scenarios with sector-level policies/standards that target upstream and downstream emissions or resource use; iii) reveal final energy consumptions induced by demand changes (including demand-side mitigation options such as behavioral changes); iv) identify the role of recycling in the decarbonization transition.
IAMs have relied heavily on input from Life Cycle Assessment to refine their process modeling. With such inputs (e.g., sources and regional flows of raw materials), additionally we were able to spotlight the material and energy embedded in energy and non-energy capacities/infrastructures in the full picture that an IAM can provide. The scenario result set will be more relevant to sector-level policymakers and stakeholders, as it shows how the technology shift of one sector occurs within a system supported by all capacities, infrastructure, and investment along the supply chain, rather than presenting a simplified dynamic as if this sector evolved in isolation.
How to cite: Ju, Y., Van Ruijven, B., and Kishimoto, P.: Extraction to End-Use: Revisiting the Representation of a Dynamic Full Supply Chain with High-Resolution Endogenized Demand Sectors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6537, 2025.
Energy transition is essential to halt the rise in global temperature. However, energy system may step into a new era of resource dependence, for instance on land, biomass, water and metal. Neglecting resource constraints may compromise the quickly ramp-up of renewables that are required by strict climate targets. Hence, it is vital to adapt cross-system way when conducting energy system planning. In this work, we put forward a framework that can merge industrial ecology tool and optimization model into energy system planning. The dynamic material flow analysis tool is used to quantify the metal requirement in energy scenario, while the linear programming model is used to optimize the energy pathways considering metal availability. We prove the effectiveness of this framework by assessing the metal constraints under China’s large-scale development of wind-power and PV. The results show that: (1) Overall metal requirement of China’s wind-power and PV sector is around 1 billion tons up to 2060, while recycling could conserve 20% of primary metal demand. (2) Copper, Nickel, Dysprosium, Tellurium, Zinc and silver could constraints the development of China’s wind-power and PV. (3) Adjusting the pathways to “first slow then fast” can eliminate the cumulative demand of Ag, Cu, Dy by 15%, 8% and 3% respectively. We highlight that the energy-metal nexus relationship should be treated as an endogenous module in the integrated assessment model. The side effect of increasing metal demand due to energy transition should be assessed in the future to decarbonize the metal supply process.
How to cite: Ren, K., Tang, X., and Höök, M.: Merging industrial ecology tool and optimization model into energy system planning- A case study of assessing metal constraints under China’s large-scale development of wind-power and PV, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-282, 2025.
Understanding the environmental implications of new technologies in the early stages of development is critical. It shapes investment decisions and has become a prerequisite for securing funding, similar to the financial due diligence (DD) process. However, early-stage lifecycle assessment (LCA) and ex-ante LCA methods that predict a mature technology’s environmental impacts provide limited understanding of market potential. It is even harder to use those methods when considering investments across different technological domains and sectors. Therefore, a mix of assessment approaches, including early-stage LCA and feasibility analyses with a consequential approach and integrated assessment models (IAMs), is key to justifying investment in early-stage technology implementation.
In this study, we introduce an environmental due diligence process (DD) for the evaluation of new products and technologies within their applied market space. We combine different industrial ecology tools and innovation management methods in support of investment decision-making in early development stages. We showcase the applicability of the environmental DD framework using the case of construction materials. We examine the potential of lower carbon cement production and illustrate the source of data, the market assessment process, the DD process and the results. We then discuss the potential and challenges in using this data for performing national assessment impacts using integrated assessment models such as the MESSAGEix-Buildings and MESSAGEix-Materials developed by IIASA.
Our research is important because it interconnects industrial ecology, impact investing and integrated assessment models. It proposes a new DD process, generic enough to adapt across industries, TRL stages, and market sectors. This approach is robust and sufficiently established to lower the barrier for using LCA data, creating a high impact for environmental considerations in early design processes while modeling large scale implications across sectors.
How to cite: Yoffe, H. and Blass, V.: From Lab to Market: Environmental Due Diligence using LCA and IAM tools, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20747, 2025.
The adoption of a uniform carbon price within and across nations is widely regarded as the most efficient pricing mechanism. However, discrepancies between regional preferences for carbon price levels and the mandated uniform carbon price can lead to households in some regions bearing a disproportionate carbon burden. In this study, we developed an expanded Multi-Regional Input-Output model, newly parameterizing seven key types of power generation within the power sector, and linked it to the Global Change Assessment Model for China (GCAM-China) to identify regionally unequal residential carbon burdens. We employed an empirical approach based on actual carbon prices between countries to determine the carbon pricing preferred by each province under a national carbon emission constraint in the GCAM-China model. The results indicate that between 2030 and 2050, 47% to 87% of provinces will experience carbon burdens exceeding their anticipated levels due to the uniform carbon pricing mechanism, even in provinces where preferred carbon prices are higher than the unified rate. The analysis reveals that while carbon revenue recycling is effective in mitigating these inequitable outcomes, relying solely on the benefits accrued by provinces from the uniform carbon pricing mechanism for transfer payments is insufficient. This study provides insights into regional inequalities in carbon pricing mechanisms for both China and the global community.
How to cite: Yin, Z. and Lu, X.: The Unintended Equity Costs of a Nationally Uniform Carbon Price, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7784, 2025.
Achieving climate commitments and advancing sustainable development in the Global South hinge critically on the transition to clean energy technologies. This study employs a global framework integrating the Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) with the air quality model (TM5-FASST) to explore adaptive technological transition pathways for regions lagging in sustainable development. We first examine the impact of regional clean energy policies implemented since the Paris Agreement on the most pressing sustainable development goals in these regions, within the broader context of meeting climate targets. We then propose tailored pathways that enhance synergies between climate action and sustainable development. Our findings reveal that current transition strategies are misaligned with regional SDG priorities. However, region-specific clean energy planning can amplify these synergies—particularly in improving the affordability of clean energy in energy-poor regions, conserving water resources in arid areas, and significantly reducing air pollution and related mortality in highly polluted regions—while also making the technology transition more cost-effective. This study highlights the key trade-offs in existing policies and underscores the urgent need for regionally adaptive strategies to achieve both climate and development goals.
How to cite: Jia, W., Li, D., and Li, J.: Context-specific clean energy transitions for synergizing climate action and sustainable development in the Global South, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-746, 2025.
Among the strategies for the low-carbon transformation of building system, the strategy of promoting the transformation of building structure to wooden building has received increasing attention due to reasons such as not reducing the satisfaction of building demands, exerting the carbon sink potential of buildings, and reducing the carbon emissions produced by building materials.
However, in the assessment of wooden building strategy, existing studies rarely consider the impact of wood supply constraints in different regions on the viability of wood buildings, the dynamics of forest carbon sinks under wood supply, the further carbon-reducing effects of wood recycling and diversion to sub-markets, impact of the wood transition in buildings on building performance, and the feedback effects of fluctuating prices of wood and other building materials on building structure change due to changes in production of those materials, which leaves a great deal of uncertainty in the assessment of how much effects the wood building transition strategy can have within the whole life cycle of the building system.
Based on this, this research attempts to establish a bottom-up model (IMED TEC) of the building system with an internal coupling of multi-sector material and energy flows. By doing so, we can simulate the nonlinear influence mechanism among the production of multiple energies and materials, and building services under cost-based decision-making. Furthermore, based on this model, we will attempt to couple it with the GLOBIOM. This will enable us to evaluate the impact of the demand for wooden materials in the building system transformation on global forest carbon sinks and land use. Additionally, we can assess the price of wooden materials under the corresponding supply and further feed this back into the building system model.
Our research will analyze the impacts of building systems transformation across multiple stages and sectors, as well as the dynamics of forest carbon sinks, in order to comprehensively assess the carbon-reducing and other impacts of wood building transformation strategy,
How to cite: Xiao, Y. and Dai, H.: The carbon reduction effect and carbon sink potential of the global wooden building transformation with the multi-sector impacts within the whole life cycle, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2983, 2025.
Many economies set climate mitigation targets for 2020 at the 2009 15th Conference of the Parties conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen. Yet no retrospective review of the implementation and actual mitigation associated with these targets has materialized. Here we track the national CO2 emissions from both territory and consumption (trade adjusted) perspectives to assess socioeconomic factors affecting changes in emissions. Among the 34 countries analysed, 12 failed to meet their targets (among them Portugal, Spain and Japan) and 7 achieved the target for territorial emissions, albeit with carbon leakage through international trade to meet domestic demand while increasing emissions in other countries. Key factors in meeting targets were intensity reduction of energy and the improvement of the energy mix. However, many countries efforts fell short of their latest nationally determined contributions. Timely tracking and review of mitigation efforts are critical for meeting the Paris Agreement targets.
How to cite: Li, S., Meng, J., Hubacek, K., Eskander, S., Li, Y., Chen, P., and Guan, D.: Revisiting Copenhagen climate mitigation targets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3269, 2025.
Increasing climate urgency mandates accelerating the phasing out of fossil fuels. The energy transition needs materials and mobilizing materials needs energy. Consequently, building the succeeding renewable energy infrastructure faster will require to significantly upscale material supply chains, increasing energy demand and associated environmental impacts. Depending on from where, how fast, and how much materials are mobilized, transition pathways can develop very differently when constrained by the dynamic material availability. Traditionally, energy transition models do not endogenously include the induced material demand and neglect material supply constraints; however, for accelerated transitions dynamic material supply constraints may become defining. This contribution presents essential elements of modeling this feedback loop, applying industrial ecology principles to transition modelling. The presentation will show results on the example of how Aluminum constrains ambitious transition pathways and develops effective strategies for reducing supply constraints and thus accelerating the transition.
How to cite: Desing, H.: Modelling material-energy feedback loops in fast energy transitions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4524, 2025.
Scenario storylines play a vital role in the multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment of future long-term low carbon transition pathways. However, the national and sectoral heterogeneity is not well depicted by the global scenario framework, such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), representative concentration pathways (RCP), and Shared climate policy assumptions(SPA). In this study, we propose a new energy scenario framework, and employ an innovative scenario coupler to identify the basic characteristics of alternative plausible pathways so as to identify a series of narratives of future macroscopic context. It will benefit for setting the exogenous assumption condition and logic boundary of energy sector modeller in China Carbon Neutral Vision.
How to cite: Song, W.: A new scenario framework for low carbon transition pathway research: multi-level matrix architecture, narratives, and implications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4727, 2025.
The Paris Agreement seeks to combat climate change by limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with aspirations of restricting it to 1.5°C by the end of the century. However, substantial uncertainties persist regarding the pace and direction of energy transitions required to achieve these goals, particularly in reducing fossil fuel dependence and determining the social cost of carbon dioxide (CO2). This study examines the impact of uncertainties in the terrestrial carbon cycle on mitigation strategies and energy transition pathways. Using simulations from 11 models within the TRENDY Model-Intercomparison Project, we incorporated these results into the Hector simple climate model, which is coupled with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a multisector integrated assessment model. Focusing on scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C, we evaluated energy trajectories and carbon price projections. Our findings indicate that uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle projections significantly influence the pace of global energy transitions. Specifically, the phase-out of unabated coal power generation is projected to occur by 2050 ± 7 years, while the ensemble simulations estimate a carbon price of $170.25 ± 38.84 per tCO2e (2010$) by 2100. These results underscore the critical need to enhance terrestrial carbon cycle representations in integrated assessment models to improve projection reliability. Addressing these uncertainties is essential for guiding effective climate policy, enabling informed decision-making, and supporting the implementation of strategies to meet long-term climate objectives.
How to cite: Chen, M., Qiu, H., Cui, R., Zhao, X., Edwards, M., and Pan, M.: Uncertainty in Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Challenges the Assessment of Energy Transition Pathways, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14189, 2025.
Posters virtual: Mon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 4
EGU25-2811 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS16
Addressing Renewable Energy Waste: Scale, Challenges, and Recycling ImpactsMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP4.6
The rapid expansion of global renewable energy systems has led to a significant increase in raw material extraction, manufacturing and the potential generation of substantial new types of waste. However, a comprehensive analysis of future trends and distribution of emerging renewable energy waste (ReWaste) is lacking. This study introduces an integrated model, GCAM-ReWaste, which incorporates global change analysis model (GCAM) with material flow analysis (MFA) to address this gap, covering 20 renewable energy technologies across 30 regions worldwide. Additionally, the model integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) to explore the environmental and economic impacts of treating the upcoming ReWaste streams under three recycling scenarios. The results reveal a 37-fold surge in global ReWaste, rising from 2.8 million metric tons (Mt) in 2020 to 102.7 Mt by 2050, cumulating in a staggering total of 1,094 Mt to achieve the net-zero emissions target. China, the United States, the European Union, and India will account for 66% of the global ReWaste total. The ReWaste is expected to contain substantial recyclable materials, which could potentially cover 45%-75% of their demand by 2050. The thriving ReWaste recycling market could reach a value of US$780–1,223 billion and contribute to a reduction in carbon emissions by as much as 900–2,082 Mt CO2-equivalent. Our findings highlight the challenges associated with ReWaste management, including the dispersed distribution of waste generation, the diversity and ongoing evolution of renewable technologies, financial viability and the immaturity of recycling technologies and policies. We advocate for concerted efforts from all stakeholders throughout the entire lifecycle of renewable energy, including manufacturers, recyclers and policy-makers, to effectively address the impending surge in ReWaste.
How to cite: Yang, Y. and Wang, P.: Addressing Renewable Energy Waste: Scale, Challenges, and Recycling Impacts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2811, 2025.
EGU25-5507 | Posters virtual | VPS16
Rethinking Future Travel Demand in China: Integrating IAM with Local Context for Sustainable Future MobilityMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP4.7
Urban mobility is undergoing significant technological transformations, with the application of sharing and autonomous driving technologies. It will reshape people's travel behavior patterns. However, the direction of the change is heavily influenced by urban spatial features, including the density of population, the distance between residents and job, the public transportation infrastructure, the diversity of local place, as well as the urban form. In response to this evolving landscape, this study integrates macro-level predictions from IAM with micro-level features of urban space to reassess the trends in travel demand in China up to the years 2030 and 2060. The findings indicate that, when considering the micro-features of existing urban spaces, projections based on future comprehensive system evaluation models may significantly overestimate the volume of car travel, so as to the demands on private cars. Variations between different regions and within the same city, particularly between new and old neighborhoods, further reveal the substantial potential for reducing car travel through urban planning and management. Consequently, this research proposes the design and experimentation of new business models for intelligent and shared mobility that align with the micro-spatial configuration of cities. It explores more sustainable pathways for the low-carbon transformation of urban transportation, aiming to harness the unique spatial attributes of cities to foster innovative solutions.
How to cite: Tong, X. and Wang, T.: Rethinking Future Travel Demand in China: Integrating IAM with Local Context for Sustainable Future Mobility, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5507, 2025.
