Rock slope evolution under climate change: the influence of atmospheric temperature change on the stability of the near-surface zone

Rock slopes worldwide are subject to the influence of atmospheric temperature variations, which affect the evolution of stresses and strains on short and long-time scales. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regimes of rock slopes, possibly exacerbating processes related to mechanical weathering and gravitational dynamics. Although the current thermal and mechanical conditions of a rock slope can be quantified using in-situ monitoring, forecasting their future evolution is still a great challenge. We have used in-situ thermal and joint displacement data to calibrate a semi-coupled thermo-mechanical model of the rock slope “Pastýřská stěna” (Děčín, Czechia). The calibrated model was then exposed to the expected temperature change over the next hundred years, analysing its stress-strain evolutive trend. The results show that gradual atmospheric warming leads to an irreversible acceleration of joint aperture trends, highlighting how future climate changes may affect the stability of rock slopes in temperate latitude environments.