Inequities in Water Access: Challenges of an Emerging Indian Megacity

Pune, near Mumbai, is India’s is 9^th most populated city. As an emerging megacity, Pune is projected to grow from 7.4 to 11.4 million residents by 2050. At that time, a two-year drought under moderate climate change would lead to extraordinary water supply challenges, especially for the urban poor. Without policy interventions by mid-century, the low-income urban population will be unduly affected by water shortages as indicated by a water supply Gini coefficient exceeding 0.4. This inequity occurs as low-income households experience unaffordable water costs (10%-15% of income), and most receive <40 liters per capita per day, typically lasting for over >6 continuous months. Using a coupled human-natural systems model, we explored various measures aimed at alleviating this catastrophe. While many actions are shown to be ineffective, a comprehensive suite of supply-side and demand-side interventions can reduce inequity, cutting the future Gini coefficient in half, and reducing water expenditures from 15% to 5% of income.  The single most effective action comes from a water-market structure that enables surrounding agricultural groundwater to be pumped and provided to the city during drought periods. However, further measures are needed to secure this expensive water for the urban poor, as it can be readily captured by wealthy urban households.