A socio-hydrological model to explore water resource exploitation in relation to population and salary dynamics

In the last decades, water resource exploitation has become one of the most complex and challenging issues for managers and policy makers, that need to guarantee strategic development with a sustainable use of water resources. Climate, population density and the financial ability to invest in hydraulic infrastructures play a significant role in shaping water resources availability at country level. To ensure sustainable water management, it is, hence, fundamental to understand and reproduce how population and wealth dynamics affect and are affected by water availability, considering different climates and their potential future variability. In this framework, an agent-based socio-hydrological model has been proposed to simulate water exploitation in relation to climate, population and salary dynamics, considering the mutual interactions among these factors. The aim of the model is to explore how water availability is linked to long-term economic and population growth, with a particular focus on the consequences of investments to store surface water. Results highlight the strong mutual dependence of water availability with population density and salary dynamics. Additionally, the proposed socio-hydrological model enables also to identify steady scenarios, that starting from selected rainfall, population density and salary, ensure stable socio-economic conditions for long-term simulations.