Exploring the suitability of European tea cultivar growth in future UK climates.

Tea is a globally important crop, that is highly sensitive to variations in climate. While the UK has traditionally imported tea from regions such as China, India, and Sri Lanka, there are now several tea producers established across the UK. However, the potential impacts of future climate change on the suitability of different regions of the UK for tea cultivation is currently poorly understood.

This study evaluates the future climate suitability for tea cultivation across the UK. Comparing the current climate from various continental European tea growing regions with UKCP climate projections under the four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, we analyse where in the UK European cultivars could feasibly be grown over the century. A ranking approach was employed, incorporating closeness between European current, and UK future climates, including temperature (Tmin and Tmax), precipitation, and humidity projections, to identify regions most conducive to tea growth. Results indicate that the southeast of the UK may provide optimal growing conditions in the future, contrasting with the west, where current tea farms are predominantly located.

These findings have implications for the strategic planning of tea farming in the UK, particularly due to the long lifespan of tea plants, highlighting the need for potential adaptation to shifting climate conditions such as importing cultivars that are more suitable for the future UK climate. Furthermore, the methodology offers a framework that could be extended to assess the viability of tea gardens outside the UK, and other crops under changing climatic regimes, supporting resilient agricultural practices.