Advancing Flood Forecasting in Ireland: Development and Implementation of an Operational Fluvial Forecasting System

In response to significant flood events, the Irish Government initiated the development of a national flood forecasting service in 2016. A key milestone in this initiative is the establishment of the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) within Met Éireann, which provides critical flood forecasting and advisory services to local authorities and emergency management stakeholders.

Met Éireann is currently advancing an operational fluvial flood forecasting system. The system integrates the HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model, developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, with the Delft-FEWS platform. Hosted on Microsoft Azure’s cloud computing service, this system utilizes real-time observational hydrometeorological data and ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts from Met Éireann (Harmonie) and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). These ensemble forecasts enable the generation of probabilistic river discharge forecasts at multiple locations with lead times of up to seven days.

This poster highlights the core components of the fluvial forecasting system, detailing the development, calibration, and real-time operational workflow. Additionally, it explores system outputs, the role of ensemble forecasting, and future advancements, including the development of a robust verification system to evaluate forecast performance. This work represents a critical step forward in enhancing Ireland’s resilience to flood risks through robust and actionable forecasting capabilities.