Modelling material-energy feedback loops in fast energy transitions

Increasing climate urgency mandates accelerating the phasing out of fossil fuels. The energy transition needs materials and mobilizing materials needs energy. Consequently, building the succeeding renewable energy infrastructure faster will require to significantly upscale material supply chains, increasing energy demand and associated environmental impacts. Depending on from where, how fast, and how much materials are mobilized, transition pathways can develop very differently when constrained by the dynamic material availability. Traditionally, energy transition models do not endogenously include the induced material demand and neglect material supply constraints; however, for accelerated transitions dynamic material supply constraints may become defining. This contribution presents essential elements of modeling this feedback loop, applying industrial ecology principles to transition modelling. The presentation will show results on the example of how Aluminum constrains ambitious transition pathways and develops effective strategies for reducing supply constraints and thus accelerating the transition.