Climate change impacts on the Arctic tundra-forest ecotone – present and future

The forest-tundra ecotone (FTE) is the transition zone between the northern boreal forest and Arctic tundra. In response to climate warming, boreal forests may, as in the past, migrate northwards with potential consequent increases in tree growth, canopy density, and stand productivity. Or they may perhaps remain stationary or even retreat. Such outcomes may then influence energy balance as well as above and below ground carbon stocks and hence feedback to Earth’s climate system. 

The Fennoscandian Arctic climate spans from predominantly oceanic in the west to continental in the east. Forest advance may not be uniform across this east-west transition. How climate and microclimate interact leading to advance, stationarity, or retreat of the boreal forest is being investigated. Approaches include a novel combination of remote sensing, terrestrial laser scanning plus microclimate data in combination with machine learning and ecological models is utilised to predict future forest extent under climate warming.