A new scenario framework for low carbon transition pathway research: multi-level matrix architecture, narratives, and implications

Scenario storylines play a vital role in the multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment of future long-term low carbon transition pathways. However, the national and sectoral heterogeneity is not well depicted by the global scenario framework, such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), representative concentration pathways (RCP), and Shared climate policy assumptions(SPA). In this study, we propose a new energy scenario framework, and employ an innovative scenario coupler to identify the basic characteristics of alternative plausible pathways so as to identify a series of narratives of future macroscopic context. It will benefit for setting the exogenous assumption condition and logic boundary of energy sector modeller in China Carbon Neutral Vision.