Anthropogenic amplification of the Arctic near-surface wind speed

The near-surface wind speed in the Arctic plays an increasingly critical role in shaping local air-sea interactions and ensuring the safety of trans-Arctic shipping. However, its potential changes under a warming climate and the underlying mechanisms driving these changes remain unclear. By analyzing reanalysis data and model simulations, we demonstrate that Arctic surface wind speed has significantly increased since the 1960s, with the most pronounced acceleration occurring over the Arctic Ocean basins adjacent to the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Historical simulations from CMIP6 models indicate that this acceleration is primarily driven by greenhouse gas induced warming, which is particularly prominent during the cold seasons. On one hand, the rapid surface warming in the Arctic disrupts the temperature inversion over sea ice, reducing atmospheric stability in the lower troposphere and enhancing thermal turbulence in the Arctic boundary layer. On the other hand, Arctic warming raises the height of the boundary layer, allowing stronger turbulence to mix high-altitude wind speed down to the surface, thereby intensifying near-surface wind speeds. Furthermore, CMIP6 models project a robust increase in Arctic NWS under various warming scenarios throughout the 21st century. This increase is especially prominent near the Kara Sea and the Beaufort Sea, with stronger wind speeds projected under higher SSP scenarios.