Changing precipitation extremes on the global domain

Global warming is reshaping the water cycle, driving changes in the intensity, seasonality and timing of precipitation extremes. These shifts have far-reaching consequences for flooding, soil erosion, landslides, and debris flow, requiring a comprehensive analysis of both historical trends and future projections. The research presented here integrates historical observations, advanced statistical methods and climate model simulations to assess global and regional changes in precipitation extremes. The work reveals how the timing and seasonality of historical precipitation extremes have already shifted in many regions. Future projections suggest a robust increase in the magnitude of precipitation extremes, particularly under high emission scenarios, and that the rarest extremes are expected a further intensification compared to more common ones. The results show large spatial variability, emphasizing the importance for regional climate adaptation strategies.