PICO
The space-time dynamics of floods are controlled by atmospheric, catchment, riverine and anthropogenic processes, and their interactions. The natural oscillation between flood-rich and flood-poor periods is superimposed on anthropogenic climate change and human interventions in rivers and catchments, such as the construction of reservoirs, alterations in river morphology, water retention capacity and land use. In addition, flood risk is further shaped by continuous changes in exposure and vulnerability. In this complex setting, it remains unclear what is the relative contribution of each factor to the space-time dynamics of flood risk. The scope of this session is to report when, where, how (detection) and why (attribution) changes in the space-time dynamics of floods occur. The session particularly welcomes presentations on attributing different drivers to observed changes in flood risk. Presentations on the impact of climate variability and change, land use transitions, morphologic changes in streams, and the role of pre-flood catchment conditions in shaping flood risk are also welcome. Furthermore, contributions on the impact of socio-economic factors, including adaptation and mitigation of past and future risk changes are invited. The session will further stimulate scientific discussion on the detection and attribution of flood risk change. Specifically, the following topics are of interest for this session:
- Long-term changes in rainfall patterns and flood occurrence;
- Process-informed extreme value statistics;
- Interactions between rainfall distribution and catchment conditions in shaping flood patterns;
- Detection and attribution of flood hazard changes, such as atmospheric drivers, land use controls, natural water retention measures, reservoir construction, and river training;
- Changes in flood exposure: economic and demographic growth, urbanisation of flood prone areas, implementation of multi-scale risk mitigation measures (particularly structural defences);
- Changes in flood vulnerability: changes of economic, societal and technological aspects driving flood vulnerability and private precautionary measures;
- Multi-factor decomposition of observed flood damages combining the hydrological and socio-economic drivers;
- Future flood risk scenarios and the role of adaptation and mitigation strategies.