Evaluating the Role of Climate Services in Maladaptive Lock-in Processes: A Socio-Hydrological Modelling Approach

The interplay between human decision-making and hydrological processes shapes the resilience and vulnerability of coupled human-water systems. This study employs a socio-hydrological system dynamics model to investigate maladaptive feedbacks arising from competing short- and long-term adaptation strategies. To this end, we developed a synthetic model where agricultural expansion and ecological restoration vie for limited water resources under varying climate service scenarios. The model highlights how biases favouring short-term responses exacerbate hydrological vulnerabilities and hinder transformative adaptation, creating path dependencies that lock systems into unsustainable trajectories. By integrating variables that simulate decision-making under different typologies of climate services, we simulate scenarios that reveal the trade-offs between immediate economic gains and long-term system sustainability. Our work contributes to advancing hydro-social and socio-hydrological research by providing actionable insights into feedback dynamics, risk management, and governance strategies. It underscores the value of interdisciplinary approaches for understanding complex human-water interactions and designing adaptive water management policies that focus on long-term sustainability and resilience.