- 1Geoscience Environnement Toulouse (GET), CNRS, UMR5563, Toulouse, 31400, France
- 2V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Russia
- 3Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC), Jaca, Spain
- 4Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère, Université de Toulouse, CNRS/CNES/IRD/INRA/UPS, Toulouse, France
- 5INRAE UMR 1114 EMMAH, Domaine Saint Paul, Site Agroparc, 84914, Avignon Ceux 09, France
- 6Institute of Fluid Mechanics (IMFT), National Polytechnic Institute of Toulouse, Toulouse, 31400, France
- 7CNRS, IMFT, Toulouse, France
- 8LSCE/IPSL (CNRS-CEA-UVSQ), LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France
- 9BIO-GEO-CLIM Laboratory, Tomsk State University, Tomsk, Russia
Quantitative simulation of permafrost dynamics, both under current climatic conditions and future climate change scenarios, presents significant challenges. These include, but are not limited to, long computation times, the construction of accurate surface boundary conditions, and the estimation of transfer properties for soil, organic matter, and vegetation layers that cover (sub-)Arctic regions. The challenges of permafrost simulation are exemplified by the broad range of scenarios for near-surface permafrost evolution under climate change, as indicated by climate models. These range from minimal changes by 2100 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario to complete disappearance as early as 2080 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (IPCC, 2022). The HiPerBorea project (hiperborea.omp.eu) has developed and applied innovative methodologies to address these challenges. This includes leveraging high-performance computing (Orgogozo et al., 2023; Xavier et al., 2024) and experimental characterizations with X-ray computed tomography (Cazaurang et al., 2023, Cazaurang, 2023). Results will be presented for case studies at two environmental monitoring sites in Siberia: a continuous permafrost area with boreal forest in Central Siberia and a discontinuous permafrost-bearing area with peatlands in Western Siberia. For instance, in the Central Siberia study site, a 40 km2 headwater catchment, projected increase of the active layer depth by 2100 under scenario SSP5-8.5 corresponds to a ∼350 km southward shift in current climatic conditions (Xavier et al., 2024). As another example of results, the hydraulic conductivity of the tens of cm thick moss cover of the Western Siberia site has been shown to be higher than previously reported in the literature (Cazaurang et al., 2023). The associated applications and perspectives for further development will also be discussed.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2022. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964
Cazaurang S. et al., 2023. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 431–451, 2023 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-431-2023
Cazaurang S., 2023. PhD thesis of Toulouse INP.
Orgogozo L. et al., 2023. Computer Physics Communications 282 (2023) 108541 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpc.2022.108541
Xavier T. et al., 2024. The Cryosphere, 18, 5865–5885, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5865-2024
How to cite: Laurent, O., Thibault, X., Anatoly, P., Esteban, A.-G., Simon, G., Simon, C., Manuel, M., Michel, Q., Stéphane, A., Liudmila, S., Antonin, M., Emmanuel, M., Sergey, L., Artem, L., and Oleg, P.: Numerical and experimental studies of coupled heat and water transfers in permafrost-bearing continental surfaces: advances of the HiPerBorea project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6315, 2025.
