Modelling emission-driven air-quality changes over Central Europe

In this study, we explore how changes in emissions affect future air quality in the Central European region while assuming that climate changes are minimal. For this, we used two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2026-2035 and 2046-2055. With advanced modelling tools, we simulated the current and future air pollution levels.

Five simulations have been conducted so far: one with present-day conditions (2010-2019) and four with future emission scenarios. The present-day conditions were validated by comparing the simulated results for pollutants like oxides of nitrogen, ozone and particulate matter with observed data. The validation revealed that the models generally underestimated pollutant levels (except for ozone).

The analysis of future projections indicate a general decrease in most pollutants’ concentrations. Some exceptions occur, however, such as with ozone during the winter months. Despite the uncertainties intrinsic to the modelling process, this study helps understand how reductions in emissions can lead to improved air-quality.