The European Commission’s Zero Pollution Action Plan sets ambitious goals to reduce air, water, and soil pollution by 2050, including a 55% reduction in premature deaths from air pollution by 2030. In 2022, fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and ozone (O₃) caused 239,000, 48,000, and 70,000 premature deaths, respectively. The interaction between climate change and air pollution presents significant challenges for achieving these ambitious goals. Rising temperatures, frequent heatwaves, and drought conditions enhance the production of O₃ and the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA), increasing PM₂.₅ levels by up to 5% in some regions. These compounded effects heighten health and environmental risks.
The Mediterranean Basin, a recognized climate change hotspot, faces particularly severe challenges. Under high-warming scenarios (+4°C), intensify emissions of O₃ precursors and wildfire activity in southern Europe. The “climate penalty” — the additional burden of air pollution under changing climate conditions— could at least partly offset the benefits of current mitigation measures. For example, projections indicate a 15% increase in O₃-related premature mortality and respiratory hospitalizations in southern Europe by mid-century. However, uncertainties remain regarding the isolated contribution of climate change to these trends.
The INSPEnCaT project addresses these critical challenges by quantifying the air pollution climate penalty across Europe, focusing on the influence of climate change under present-day and future emission scenarios.The study outlines three key objectives: (1) to develop a regional climate-chemistry modeling system for Europe, (2) to assess the air pollution climate penalty under different abatement scenarios, and (3) to quantify impacts on policy-relevant metrics, including human and vegetation exposure and associated health effects. More specifically, we are developing a modeling chain coupling global chemistry-climate simulations with the EC-Earth3-AerChem model with regional weather-chemistry simulations with the MONARCH model. Simulations will focus on two 10-year periods (2005–2014 for present-day and 2045–2054 for future conditions). These simulations will isolate the effect of climate change on air quality under present-day and future emission scenarios for that, two scenarios will be performed: (1) present-day emissions with present-day climate (2005–2014) and (2) present-day emissions with future climate under SSP2-4.5 scenario (2045–2054). MONARCH model will downscale these simulations to a 20x20 km² resolution, providing detailed air quality projections across Europe based on different air pollution abatement scenarios. Regarding anthropogenic emissions, EC-Earth3-AerChem relies on CMIP6 historical and projected emissions under the SSP245 for present-day and future, respectively. MONARCH relies on the CAMS-REG-APv4.2 for present day while different policy emission scenarios will be used for the future (i.e. Current legislation, maximum feasible reduction). In this contribution, we will present and discuss the preliminary results of atmospheric composition obtained under these different long-term emission scenarios.
The results of this study will offer valuable insights into the climate penalty’s effects on air pollution in key hotspot regions across Europe. INSPEnCaT results will support policymakers to design more effective strategies to mitigate air pollution and its associated health risks, ensuring alignment with ambitious European objectives such as the Zero Pollution target by 2050.