Scenario-Based Exploration of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin

Sustainable management of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus presents a significant challenge, especially in transboundary ecosystems such as river basins, where competing national interests often intersect with the supply and demand of essential resources. The Tigris-Euphrates River (TigER) basin, a vital lifeline for Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, exemplifies these challenges. Increasing water demand, agricultural expansion, and energy needs—intensified by climate change and geopolitical tensions—place unprecedented pressure on this critical transboundary system, threatening regional sustainability and development. Using an integrated scenario-based approach to address future challenges and opportunities, this study investigates the interconnections between water, food, and energy systems in the TigER basin. A suite of plausible and consistent scenarios was developed based on a systematic literature review of the WEF nexus studies in the TigER basin, capturing critical uncertainties and drivers such as population growth, water rights, large-scale dam construction, shifting water availability, energy policies, and agricultural practices. This review synthesised insights from existing research at regional and basin-wide scales, highlighting key trends and challenges in resource management across the four riparian countries. Preliminary findings underscore the potential of scenario-based approaches to highlight strategies addressing water security under various future conditions. These scenarios reveal how shifts in water availability could cascade through the food and energy sectors, emphasizing the necessity of coordinated responses to safeguard water access. They demonstrate the importance of exploring adaptive policies and governance mechanisms that can respond to uncertain future conditions while fostering resilience across the TigER basin's interconnected systems. This research addresses the interdependencies within the water-food-energy nexus, offering actionable insights for sustainable management in transboundary river basins. By developing future scenarios, it provides a foundation for adaptive governance and policy interventions to balance competing demands across sectors. These contributions enhance the understanding of nexus interconnections and offer a roadmap for strengthening system resilience in the face of global change.