The Mekong Basin faces significant challenges in integrated management of the water-energy nexus amidst the growing pressures of climate change. Rapid urbanization and industrial growth are escalating the demand for energy and water for both food production and industrial use. Hydropower development, a key energy source in the region, further complicates water flow and threatens ecosystem health. Climate change impacts, including erratic rainfall patterns, droughts, and flooding, exacerbate the stability of both water and energy systems. While research on the Water-Food-Energy (WFE) nexus has expanded in the past decade to better understand the interconnections across sectors and borders, the academic discourse surrounding the Water-Energy-Climate (WEC) nexus remains limited. This study assesses the knowledge gaps in implementing the WEC nexus in the Mekong Basin through a systematic review. A total of 3,399 manuscripts were identified from databases such as PubMed, IEEE, IWA Publishing, SpringerLink, ProQuest, and ScienceDirect, published between 2012 and 2024. Out of these, 60 manuscripts were included in the analysis, along with two relevant reports from the Mekong River Commission. The analysis reveals a steady increase in publications, with the highest number in 2021, indicating growing scholarly interest in the interlinkages between water, energy, and climate systems. The study identifies key knowledge gaps, including governance-related, technological and engineering challenges, ecosystem and nature-based solutions, and issues related to Gender Equality, Disability, and Social Inclusion (GEDSI). A major finding is the lack of coordinated and integrated planning across the Mekong countries, which hinders effective management of the WEC nexus. Insufficient technologies to support fish migration and maintain environmental flows threaten downstream ecosystems vital to local communities. Moreover, addressing climate change while optimizing water and energy use requires deeper exploration of comprehensive solutions. Socio-cultural norms also limit women’s participation in leadership and technical roles within water, energy, and climate management. Without applying a gender-inclusive approach, nexus governance risks deepening existing inequalities. The study concludes that addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced regional collaboration, improved governance and integrated policy frameworks, strengthened capacity-building efforts, better data-sharing mechanisms, advanced WEC modeling capabilities, and a more holistic approach to policy-making aligned with the sustainable development goals of the Mekong countries.
How to cite: Piman, T., Thanh, V. Q., and Krittasudthacheewa, C.: Assessment of knowledge gaps in implementing Water-Energy-Climate Nexus in the Mekong Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15850, 2025.
Despite being historically water-abundant, many mountain regions of the world are forced to adapt to a drier and hotter climate. Adaptation in the water sector calls for a revision of policies, the introduction of new regulations, and changing water allocation priorities, which in turn rely on a sound understanding of water supply-demand balance. In investigating water allocation issues, it is paramount to consider the interconnectedness of water-dependent sectors, i.e. water supply, energy, food, and ecosystems (the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems – WEFE - Nexus), so that trade-offs between sectoral objectives are minimised and synergies built. In this study, we assess the magnitude and seasonality of trade-offs and synergies between hydropower production, irrigation, and ecological flows for the Orco watershed, a mountainous sub-basin of the Po River in Northern Italy. A water resources management model is built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) software tool and integrating simulation of hydrological processes with a priority-based, cross-sectoral allocation model. The model is used to perform an ex-post assessment of water management strategies adopted in the period 2011-2022, considering thus both wet and dry years conditions, including the extreme drought in summer 2022. Baseline conditions of water allocation across sectors are informed by a review of water policies and interviews with local stakeholders, while alternative management scenarios are built based on assigning different priorities to hydropower production and irrigation, and by increasing ecological flow requirements. The impact of alternative water management strategies on meeting sectoral water demands is thus simulated to reveal trade-offs across sectors (e.g., hydropower-irrigation, irrigation-ecological flows) and between agricultural upstream and downstream water users. Results show the Orco watershed faced recurrent water scarcity conditions in the simulated period with the most downstream irrigation consortium having experienced a supply deficit in most years. Trade-offs between hydropower and irrigation typically occur in late July and August when agricultural water demands exceed reservoirs’ outflow needed for hydropower production. If irrigation needs had been prioritised over hydropower production in the management of reservoirs, our study indicates that the supply deficits experienced by irrigation consortia would have been significantly lowered in the period 2011-2021, leading, however, to a moderate loss of hydropower production in autumn and winter. In 2022, the benefits gained from a different operation of reservoirs would have been significantly smaller due to the large supply deficit already manifested at the start of the irrigation season (April - May) and very low levels in reservoirs throughout the 2022 hydrological year. Finally, the upstream positioning of agricultural water users is shown to have a drastic impact on the frequency and magnitude of supply deficits faced by irrigation consortia and on the impact of stricter ecological flow requirements on agricultural water withdrawals. Through the modelling of WEFE Nexus trade-offs and synergies we provide evidence that can help public authorities and water users further assess the impact of regulatory and infrastructural developments in mountainous watersheds.
How to cite: Lucca, E., Castelli, G., Wenninger, J., Villani, L., Sušnik, J., Masia, S., and Bresci, E.: Modelling Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Nexus Trade-offs and Synergies in a meso-scale watershed in the European Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16217, 2025.
Water, energy and food (WEF) security is required for general human health and well-being, quality of life and livelihoods, and thus, ultimately, sustainable development [1, 2]. To improve WEF security, sustainable resource management is required, particularly in the context of climate change and its spatial variations. The WEF nexus is an approach to ensure this by accounting for and understanding the interrelations, synergies and trade-offs between WEF systems [1]. It is used to design appropriate solutions to WEF insecurity. For that, the state of WEF security must be assessed and the underlying causes to insecurity identified. Previous research conducting quantitative WEF nexus assessments has focused on i) creating national WEF indices [3, 4]; ii) technical assessments of infrastructural and biophysical aspects of WEF security [2, 5]; or iii) context-specific WEF security and linkages in case-study areas [5]. While these are valuable in providing macro-level understanding of WEF security and linkages, they do not account for socio-economic dimensions of security [2] or spatial heterogeneity within countries [3]. Sectoral approaches encompass a more comprehensive set of security aspects, such as the framework covering availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability (the so-called “four As”) originating in energy security literature [6], but these have not been applied to the nexus nor spatially explicitly.
Our objective is to develop a framework mapping WEF security along these four As and to apply the framework at a national level to identify hotspots of WEF insecurity within a country. We cover twelve domains of WEF security: each a combination of one of the four As and one of the three WEF resource systems. For each, household-level indicators were selected that can be quantified for countries at a high spatial resolution (e.g., municipality-level) by using data present in population and household surveys, supplemented with other open-source datasets (e.g., agricultural statistics, hydrological measurements, national utility prices, etc.). Resulting indicator scores for the twelve domains were subsequently combined and spatial patterns analysed to identify WEF insecurity hotspots (i.e., areas where there is concurrence of low scores across multiple domains).
The framework was applied to South Africa, a country with high spatial inequality. Data from national surveys were used to assess the spatial patterns in the WEF security domains across South Africa’s 257 municipalities. Preliminary results indicate concurrence of relatively low scores on several security domains, especially in municipalities in the east of Eastern Cape province, in KwaZulu-Natal, the north-eastern municipalities of Northern Cape and in parts of North West province. These areas are thus hotspots of multi-faceted WEF insecurity and should be prioritized for interventions. The framework proved suitable in highlighting sub-national patterns in WEF security and can thus be applied to other countries to quantify WEF security spatially explicitly.
References:
[1] Mabhaudhi et al. (2019). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162970
[2] Biggs et al. (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.08.002
[3] Nkiaka et al. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2021.100655
[4] Nhamo et al. (2019). https://doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0359.v1
[5] Walker et al. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-91223-5.00006-X
[6] Yao & Chang. (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.047
How to cite: Ossentjuk, I., Straatsma, M., Karssenberg, D., and van der Hilst, F.: Spatial quantification framework for Water-Energy-Food security – Applied to South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4755, 2025.
Sugarcane cultivation is a major agricultural sector in Maharashtra, India, contributing significantly to the state’s economy and rural livelihoods. It is a leading state in terms of average production and recovery, with a sixfold increase in its cultivated area from 0.89% in 1960-61 to 5.34% in 2022-23. However, sugarcane is a highly water-intensive crop with a water productivity of 4.48 kg/m3 in the state. About 79.5% of the total sugarcane of Maharashtra is cultivated in drought-prone regions of the state. High profitability, provision of electricity subsidies and Fair and Remunerative Prices (FRP), and a high number of sugar mills are the main factors behind sugarcane cultivation in Maharashtra that have resulted in many environmental consequences. Sugarcane is regarded as an ideal crop for providing both food and bioenergy (ethanol) production due to its large biomass yield in both solid and liquid forms. However, the sustainable management of water, energy, and food (WEF) resources is challenged by the rapid expansion of water-intensive sugarcane, which depletes the water resources and decreases irrigation and production of major food crops. The inherent interactions among the WEF systems result in trade-offs as well as synergies under various policies and decisions.
To address these challenges, we developed an integrated model to investigate the complex interdependencies within the WEF nexus in sugarcane farming using a system dynamic modeling approach. The model is developed using Vensim with a causal loop diagram (CLD) effectively represents the interconnections and cause-effect dynamics among WEF systems. The model is applied to a case study in the district of Maharashtra state, India. The primary data is collected through a survey of farming households. By incorporating data on water availability, energy consumption, crop productivity, and socio-economic factors, the model evaluates the impacts of various management practices and policy interventions. The sensitivity of the model output to the input parameters is analyzed using a one-at-a-time analysis, while the Monte Carlo technique is used for uncertainty assessment and to test the validity of the model. Furthermore, future scenarios are analyzed to assess the impacts of different socio-economic and climatic drivers on WEF resource dynamics. The model highlights the varying degrees of sensitivity, trade-offs, and synergies within the WEF systems under various drivers, including energy-intensive irrigation, food security constraints, and promoting bioenergy production through supportive policies.
How to cite: Mhaskar, M. D. and Udmale, P. D.: Trade-offs and synergies in the water-energy-food nexus: The case of sugarcane farming in Maharashtra, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-925, 2025.
In spite of the well-known interconnections found between water, energy, food and ecosystems, an integrated management of such components is seldom employed. On the contrary, several institutions at different levels (national, regional, local) take care of each component, which implies the existence of different (sometimes even opposite) interests that hinder a proper management of the WEFE nexus. Furthermore, drivers at multiple scales (e.g., energy prices, ecosystem protection standards) must be considered to enable a thorough WEFE evaluation. Hydroeconomic modelling can accommodate multi-level economic information while doing justice to the modelling detail required at the river basin scale.
This contribution combines hydroeconomic modelling, ecological (native fish habitat) modelling and continental economic projections to enable a comprehensive WEFE evaluation in the Jucar River Basin (Spain). This basin is characterized by intensive water use in agriculture, the existence of multiannual droughts, and a strong influence of European markets on agricultural goods. The Jucar river system is represented by a hydroeconomic simulation model that considers reservoirs and aquifers, urban and agricultural demands, hydropower plants, native fish habitat in selected fish streams and the water balance of the Albufera wetland, one of the most iconic water-dependent ecosystems in Spain. Climate projections from CMIP6 are used. These climate scenarios are transformed into hydrological projections using the fully distributed 250-m resolution TETIS eco-hydrological model. Urban demands are modelled using demand curves derived employing the point expansion method. Agricultural demands are addressed through the FAO33 methodology using the current crop mosaic and future crop water needs estimated using the AQUACROP model (herbaceous) and the FAO56 method combined with soil water balance modelling (citrus), both forced by the CMIP6 climate projections but assuming fixed CO2 concentrations. Native fish habitat is estimated using hydraulic models and fish preference curves, transformed into streamflow – habitat (WUA) curves for selected streams. Crop and energy prices were obtained from the continental CAPRI and PRIMES models, respectively.
Our results show that surface water resources would decrease in the future, while crop water needs will increase. Nonetheless, the Jucar river system would hold a satisfactory performance level for climate projections referred to the SSP1_2.6 scenario. However, challenges in agricultural benefits and surface water use could arise in the SSP3_7.0 scenario, while the most pessimistic SSP5_8.5 scenario depicts a situation in which the system is heavily challenged and shows negative impacts for the whole WEFE nexus components. It can be concluded that the system’s sustainability would only be likely if the 2oC degree limit set by the Paris Agreement holds (SSP1_2.6). Otherwise, adaptation options would be required to guarantee sustainable WEFE management.
Acknowledgements: This study has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the GoNEXUS project (grant agreement No 101003722)
How to cite: Pulido-Velazquez, M., Macian-Sorribes, H., de León Pérez, D., Carricondo-Anton, J. M., Martinez-Capel, F., Garcia-Prats, A., and Frances-Garcia, F.: Assessment of climate change impacts on the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus in the Jucar River Basin (Spain) using hydroeconomic and ecological modelling, and continental-scale economic projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16755, 2025.
The sustainable management of water, energy, food, and ecosystems sectors is fundamental for ensuring societal well-being, economic stability, and environmental integrity. Sardinia is a Mediterranean region with diverse socioeconomic and landscape conditions, currently facing escalating challenges in managing the intertwined system between Water, Energy, Food, and Ecosystems, shaped by climate variability and pressing sectoral demand, especially during the dry months. This research applies the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) Nexus approach to assess the resource interdependencies, trade-offs, and synergies across the seven hydrographic districts of the Sardinia region, with both qualitative and quantitative tools for the holistic assessment of the WEFE system. The qualitative assessment was complemented by Hoff WEF nexus analytical framework, and Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to identify the sectoral challenges and capture the dynamic interactions between WEFE sectors. The qualitative tools shaped the structure and parameters of the quantitative (R-WEFE Nexus platform) tool enhancing their ability to reflect the real-world dynamics and interactions within WEFE sectors. The R-WEFE Nexus platform was validated to analyse the impacts of sectoral dynamics, socioeconomic and climate change projections, and strategic management policies on nexus performance. The validated system dynamic-based R-WEFE Nexus platform was applied to the seven (Coghinas-Mannu-Temo, Liscia, Posada-Cedrino, Tirso, Sud-Orientale, Sulcis and Flumendosa-Campidano) hydrographic districts of Sardinia region, to simulate integrated trends over the historical (1981-2014) and future (2015-2070) periods by considering the socioeconomic and climate change scenarios under SSP126 and SSP585.
The findings show a critical decline in reservoir water levels, projected prevalent warning conditions of reservoir status indicators (0.15-0.3) in most of the hydrographic districts under SSP126 and SSP585, and often falling below emergency threshold (< 0.15) during the peak seasonal water demand. This heightened vulnerability is expected from the combined effect of escalating irrigation for agriculture and the substantial rise in water demand associated with heightened tourist influxes during the summer months. Water quality is expected to be further compromised by elevated nitrate concentration in surface water largely attributable to agricultural runoff, affecting aquatic ecosystems. The increasing energy demand, fostered by increasing demand and degraded resources, does withstand growing development potential in the Sardinia region for integration of renewable energy sources (Solar and Wind) as a key strategy for reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels and significantly reducing CO2 emissions.
The study emphasized the critical need for cross-sectoral collaboration and integrated governance to effectively tackle resource management challenges. Such efforts are important for ensuring sustainable development, and ecosystem integrity and enhancing resilience to the impact of socio-economic pressure and climate change, paving the way for advancing resource efficiency and long-term sustainability.
How to cite: Aslam, M. F., Masia, S., Debolini, M., Susnik, J., Borgo, A., Mereu, S., and Trabucco, A.: Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus approach for holistic resource assessment in Sardinia region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18049, 2025.
The Amazon Basin, the world’s largest watershed, plays a critical role in regulating the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Given its importance, addressing the region’s growing environmental, social, and economic challenges requires an integrated approach to sustainable development. This study documents the development and application of an integrated water-energy-food nexus model to support the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in evaluating infrastructure and policy interventions in the basin. The nexus model allows for multi-sectoral analysis, providing a framework to quantify interdependencies and trade-offs across water, energy, and food systems in face of climate change, land-use dynamics, and socioeconomic uncertainties.
Three scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), “Extractive,” and “Sustainable”, are analyzed. The BAU scenario serves as a baseline, while the Extractive scenario maximizes natural resource exploitation through hydropower and irrigation. In contrast, the Sustainable scenario emphasizes resource preservation, limiting deforestation and promoting yield improvement policies. These intervention scenarios are assessed under uncertainty scenarios derived from stakeholder consultations, combining climate change and socio-technical factors.
The key findings of the study are:
- The Amazon region faces minimal trade-offs between water uses due to its water abundance and limited consumptive water activities, such as irrigation, which only accounts for 3.9% of cultivated land. Access to water is more constrained by financial, institutional, or quality issues rather than water availability.
- Although the Amazon might experiences significant seasonal changes in precipitation (up to -50% in some months), its high rainfall and the timing of dry seasons minimize climate change impacts on seasonal crops. However, temperature changes and "savannafication" could reduce forest areas and, consequently, precipitation. Livestock production, dependent on year-round grazing, might face greater risks.
- Hydropower, despite water abundance, remains vulnerable to climate variability. Most planned Amazonian plants are run-of-the-river systems, relying on past climate conditions. Climate change could reduce hydropower output by up to 10%, particularly during already dry months when demand peaks. This could diminish hydropower’s value, especially in a future energy mix reliant on intermittent sources like wind.
- Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Amazon are predominantly linked to land-use changes. Particularly deforestation for cattle ranching and crop cultivation, which account for 50-80% of emissions under different scenarios, while direct cattle emissions contribute by 10-30%. Addressing GHG reductions requires a holistic approach, given the inter-sectoral trade-offs, especially concerning biofuel crop expansion, which competes with food crops and forests, is sensitive to climate change, and impacts the energy system's emissions.
The study highlights the necessity of integrated planning to optimize resource use, mitigate trade-offs, and promote synergies among sectors. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing uncertainties and ensuring equitable, transboundary decision-making across the basin’s eight countries. The findings provide valuable insights for ACTO, IADB, and national governments to guide feasibility studies and prioritize investments for the Amazon River Basin.
How to cite: Payet-Burin, R., Santos da Silva, S., Moreda, F., Pereira-Cardenal, S., and Miralles-Wilhelm, F.: Development of a Regional Hydrological Platform and a Water-Energy-Food Nexus Model for the Amazon Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19460, 2025.
The Pinios River Basin (PRB), located in Thessaly, Central Greece, faces significant challenges in identifying sustainable solutions for managing its limited resources in a Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus context due to conflicting priorities among stakeholders. To address these challenges, an integrated tool—the Planning Kit for the PRB—was developed under the REXUS project of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program. The Planning Kit aims to provide stakeholders with an overview of the WEFE nexus dynamics.
The PRB Planning Kit was co-developed with local stakeholders through workshops and working sessions to promote more informed and inclusive decision-making. It synthesizes the results of alternative management options as proposed by the stakeholders, utilizing the results of numerous trusted, detailed process-based models and supplementary literature reviews, enabling stakeholders to explore the summarized outcomes of pre-calculated scenarios and strategies without directly interacting with the underlying complex models.
The PRB Planning Kit is designed to facilitate the interpretation of data and modeling results by providing stakeholders with a comprehensive overview through a single, accessible interface. It highlights the interconnected nature of stakeholder responsibilities by demonstrating trade-offs and showing how decisions within one sector can influence other sectors in the WEFE nexus. Lastly, its sustainability after the project's completion is trusted to the local team, who has the expertise to refine local models’ application and play a pivotal role in the development of the PRB Planning Kit.
How to cite: Hermawan, T., Pisinaras, V., Babakos, K., Panagopoulos, A., and Penning, E.: The Planning Kit of Pinios River Basin, Greece:An Integrated Approach to Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20236, 2025.
The widespread uncertainty regarding future changes in climate, socioeconomic conditions, and population growth has increased interest in water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus-based frameworks for analysis of water resources due to the imbalance in supply and demand. To address this imbalance, one should consider sectors in which there is direct or indirect utilization of water. There still exists unclearness in understanding how the ecosystem sector should be coordinated with the water-energy-food nexus (WEF Nexus). Here, we propose an analytical framework to integrate services provided by the ecosystem into WEF Nexus and analyzed their behavior. The proposed framework was applied to Mahi Basin, India, from 1995-2010 which has experienced significant blue water scarcity and agriculture water scarcity issues in past years. The framework is constituted by 28 indicators from all water, food, energy and ecosystem sectors and their behavior was analyzed based on a set of equations which determine the inter-connection between each of them. The coefficients of behavioral equations define synergy and a trade-off between sectors and inter-connections. The results explain the complex relationship and heterogeneity among the different regions in the basin and sectors, indicating a gradual improvement in synergy between water consumption and food production, while declining with soil retention especially in northern regions of the basin. Water subsystem sustainability has a significant positive impact on other ecosystem services except for food production. The study provides relationship-based, location-based management measures such as ecological protection and restoration, and strict water resources management in the basin.
How to cite: Ge, N. and Sharma, A.: Behavioral Assessment of Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus of Mahi Basin in India , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19548, 2025.
The exceptional low water inflows and the inadequate water allocation during the early 21st century led to a crisis in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). The crisis revealed the vulnerability of the system and the needed of changes of the water policies. Climate change worsen water scarcity and increase the risk of extreme drought events, with impacts on the water-dependent economic sectors in the USA and Mexico. Water management requires policy interventions to address the emerging conditions resulting from climate change. The submitted paper analyzes the risk and economic impacts of climate change in the CRB. Using a hydro-economic model (HEM), we compare the economic benefit of the current allocation rules with alternative policies: cap-and-trade and social planner allocations. The HEM incorporates hydrology, agriculture (39 crops across 2.2 million acres distributed in 40 irrigation districts), urban water use (379 cities, 33.4 million people), and hydropower generation (9 plants, 10,225 gigawatt-hours annually). Future runoff simulations are based on climate change projections and a statistical method called copula, which generates synthetic time series of water inflows with similar characteristics to the projections. The model operates on a monthly temporal scale over a simulation window of 30 years. The model operates on a monthly timescale over 30 years, with 100 simulations for each policy under both historical and projected climate conditions.
The results are interpreted statistically to provide a range of potential outcomes and their likelihood. The analysis reveals the probabilistic distribution of water curtailments and their impacts on different users and regions. The analysis provides insights into the basin's vulnerability to climate change. The economic benefits of the social planner water allocation are compared under the current policy and a cap-and-trade policy to assess the costs associated with each. The analysis explores the potential benefits of water trade among sectors, states, and Tribal Nations, identifying potential cooperative arrangements among stakeholders. Inter-state cooperation and economically beneficial arrangements among stakeholders could enhance water use efficiency. The rigidity of the current system can lead to maladaptation to climate change. The agricultural sector is examined to identify potential crop pattern changes for adaptation. Additionally, the analysis assesses risks within urban areas. The shadow price of water in the border between the USA and Mexico is estimated as a proxy of the compensation from water users in United States to those in Mexico.
How to cite: Crespo, D., Nemati, M., Dinar, A., and Frankel, Z.: Evaluation of Water Policy Interventions in the Face of Climate Change: Insights from the Colorado River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21077, 2025.
Orals: Thu, 1 May | Room 3.29/30
The role of hydropower generation in power grid operations is set to expand with the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources like wind and solar. Thus, understanding how hydropower dispatch decisions vary under evolving hydrologic and electricity demand conditions is essential for effective management of water and energy resources. However, modeling hydropower dispatch decisions is challenging because such decisions are influenced by the state of the hydrological and electrical systems in which dams operate. Traditional modeling approaches based on soft coupling are ill-suited to capture these complex dynamics—as well as their feedback mechanisms—because they implement one-way information flow from one model to another. In this study, we introduce a novel model coupling framework that hard-couples a multi-reservoir system model (VIC-Res) with a power system model (PowNet), and thus captures operational decisions based on the states of both systems. Specifically, VIC-Res accounts for the representation and optimization of hydropower reservoirs, while PowNet simulates the unit commitment and economic dispatch of large-scale power systems. The coupler acts as the model orchestrator, managing the sequential exchange of information between models at each time step and checking the convergence of hydropower generated by VIC-Res and PowNet to advance to the next time step. The framework is tested on the Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration Project (LTMS-PIP), which largely relies on the hydropower produced by the Mekong and Chao Phraya river basins. Our modeling effort involves four instances of PowNet (one for each power grid) and two of VIC-Res (one for each basin). Over a 10-year simulation horizon, we show that accounting for the state of both hydrological and electrical systems when dispatching hydopower is key to improve the overall system performance, which we measure in terms of grid operating costs and CO2 emissions.
How to cite: Galelli, S., Eldardiry, H., and Bunnak, P.: Towards real-time operation of interconnected water-energy systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7249, 2025.
Integrated assessment of multi-sector water systems, such as interlinked river basins and energy systems, can help achieve more resilient and economically efficient resource systems. Fast scalable simulators allow exploring both the risks and synergies inherent in large multi-sector water systems. Simulators can also be linked to AI tools to enhance planning and management, making interdependencies amongst systems a positive factor rather than just a source of risk. This talk will demonstrate several uses of an integrated river basin model linkable to energy system simulation: the open-source Python water resources (Pywr) and Python energy resources (Pyenr) simulators. These simulation codes explicitly address the interconnections of large multi-sector systems to achieve efficient and appropriate spatial and sectoral benefits distribution across systems. We show several applications at national and regional scales in Ghana, East Africa and Central Asia. In all cases, we analyse how changes to the water system will impact other resource systems linked to it, including the environment. Results highlight how considering the spatiotemporal multi-sector dynamics of resource systems helps identify synergistic designs and management options.
How to cite: Harou, J., Gonzalez Cabrera, J., and Tomlinson, J.: Fast scalable open-source simulation of multi-sector water mega-systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20606, 2025.
Recent climate changes, including rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, pose a significant threat to global water, food, and energy security. In particular, the acceleration of global warming has resulted in water scarcity, reduced crop yields, and unstable energy supplies, impacting not only human livelihoods but also various industries. Although water, energy, and food have traditionally been managed independently, they are closely interconnected, and changes in one sector can directly influence the others.
It is vital to manage the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus in an integrated manner and anticipate potential resource shortages in advance. In this context, introducing the concept of a water footprint enables the development of efficient, water-centric management strategies that systematically measure and manage water usage across energy and food production.
This study applies a water footprint approach to factors related to water, energy, and food, calculates the Water Stress Index (WSI), Energy Stress Index (ESI), and Food Stress Index (FSI), thereby assessing each resource’s vulnerability. Specifically, an Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)-based WEF nexus model was developed for Chungcheongnam-do in South Korea to evaluate nexus interactions using historical observation data. Furthermore, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were employed to project resource fluctuations under future climate change.
To validate the model, a Walk-Forward Validation Fold method was used, yielding an R² of 0.88 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.67—indicating satisfactory predictive accuracy. By setting 2030 as the target year, the model showed that WSI could range from -168% to +16%, ESI from -690% to +69%, and FSI was projected to decrease by -113% to -87%. Notably, reduced precipitation was identified as having a significant impact on energy production, underscoring the need for strategies to ensure a stable energy supply.
Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (NRF-RS-2023-00280330).
How to cite: Kim, J., Kim, M., and Kim, T.: Development of Long Short-Term Memory-Based Water-Energy-Food Nexus for Assessing Resources vulnerability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16341, 2025.
Water footprint assessment is a critical tool for understanding the sustainability of energy production within the water-energy-food nexus. This study presents a detailed methodology for quantifying the water footprint of various energy sources, including coal, oil, natural gas, and renewable energy systems such as solar, hydropower, and bioenergy. The methodology incorporates water usage across all stages of energy production: extraction, processing, and power generation. Additionally, it emphasizes the need to unify the measurement units across the water, energy, and food sectors by leveraging the water footprint concept, enabling a more integrated analysis of the nexus model.
Key factors considered in this study include water demand per unit of energy (e.g., m³/GJ), type of cooling technology (open-loop, closed-loop, and dry cooling), regional water stress indices, and energy conversion efficiencies. A life-cycle assessment (LCA) framework is adopted to evaluate the environmental impact of each energy source, with adjustments made for region-specific water availability and climatic conditions. While much evaluation of water footprints has been carried out in water and food sectors, energy-related water footprint studies are still limited.
This study highlights the potential for reducing water consumption and improving resource efficiency in energy production through systematical calculations and comparison of water footprints across sectors. The unified water footprint metric facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the interdependencies within the water-energy-food nexus, allowing for the identification of trade-offs and synergies. This approach also provides policymakers and resource managers with critical data to prioritize sustainable strategies for energy production and resource allocation, particularly in water-stressed regions. The findings underscore the importance of integrating water footprint data into nexus modeling and decision-making processes to ensure a balanced and sustainable approach to resource management in the face of growing global demand.
Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (NRF-RS-2023-00280330).
How to cite: Kim, M. J., Kim, J. E., and Kim, T.-W.: Quantifying Energy Water Footprints for Unified Analysis in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14156, 2025.
This paper analyses the impacts of a water-for-energy swap agreement that has been negotiated between Israel and Jordan in recent years, on the Israeli economy. According to the agreement Israel will supply 200 million m³ of desalinated water to Jordan in exchange for electricity to be produced in a new 600-megawatt solar power plant to be built in Jordan (Mansour & Reiffenstuel, 2022).
Given the nexus character of water and energy, which are strongly interlinked with other parts of the economy, we investigate the implications of this agreement using an economy-wide simulation model. Specifically, a water-focused computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is calibrated to a recent, detailed social accounting matrix for Israel, which includes 46 economic sectors, 43 production factors, and 10 household types differentiated according to income level and ethnic group. The model includes a detailed depiction of water supply and demand, considering alternative water sources, such as desalination and reclamation of wastewater, with differing cost structures. To capture price discrimination and other water-related policies applied by the entities investigated, the model includes different water-related taxation instruments and water satellite accounts which allows for keeping track of water quantities.
It is expected that Israel will gain from the additional electricity provided, which reduces production costs of energy-intensive sectors, including desalination, a major contributor to municipal water supply. Additionally, there are also gains outside the pure economic modeling: electricity production in the region will become greener and the increased interdependency between the two states will contribute to stabilizing relations and thus peace in the region. Therefore, this agreement can earn a triple dividend covering all aspects of the sustainability triangle.
Source
Mansour, H., & Reiffenstuel, A. (2022). KAS Studies on Jordan Jordan Office The Jordan, Israel, and UAE Water-for-energy Deal: Potential and Pitfalls of Energy and Water Sharing-Agreements in the Middle East, https://www.kas.de/en/web/jordanien/single-title/-/content/the-jordan-israel-and-uae-water-for-energy-deal.
How to cite: Luckmann, J.: The Water-for-Energy Swap between Jordan and Israel - An economy-wide analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16698, 2025.
The paper examines how upstream dam construction impacts freshwater levels downstream, affecting salinity intrusion and agricultural productivity in the delta. The study combines historical records of dam construction on the Mekong River, water level observations, and agricultural productivity statistics, with satellite data as proxies for salinity index and vegetation coverage. The findings show that increased reservoir capacity significantly reduces downstream freshwater discharge, decreases rice yield, and intensifies saltwater intrusion, while annual electricity output partially mitigates these effects. These impacts are most severe during dry seasons and closer to the shore. Two mechanisms are identified: the disruptive but temporary ”filling effect” in the first-year post-dam completion, and the persistent, smaller ”operational effect” over time.
How to cite: Vu, H.: Impact of Dams on Salinity Intrusion and Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Mekong River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20779, 2025.
Sustainable management of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus presents a significant challenge, especially in transboundary ecosystems such as river basins, where competing national interests often intersect with the supply and demand of essential resources. The Tigris-Euphrates River (TigER) basin, a vital lifeline for Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, exemplifies these challenges. Increasing water demand, agricultural expansion, and energy needs—intensified by climate change and geopolitical tensions—place unprecedented pressure on this critical transboundary system, threatening regional sustainability and development. Using an integrated scenario-based approach to address future challenges and opportunities, this study investigates the interconnections between water, food, and energy systems in the TigER basin. A suite of plausible and consistent scenarios was developed based on a systematic literature review of the WEF nexus studies in the TigER basin, capturing critical uncertainties and drivers such as population growth, water rights, large-scale dam construction, shifting water availability, energy policies, and agricultural practices. This review synthesised insights from existing research at regional and basin-wide scales, highlighting key trends and challenges in resource management across the four riparian countries. Preliminary findings underscore the potential of scenario-based approaches to highlight strategies addressing water security under various future conditions. These scenarios reveal how shifts in water availability could cascade through the food and energy sectors, emphasizing the necessity of coordinated responses to safeguard water access. They demonstrate the importance of exploring adaptive policies and governance mechanisms that can respond to uncertain future conditions while fostering resilience across the TigER basin's interconnected systems. This research addresses the interdependencies within the water-food-energy nexus, offering actionable insights for sustainable management in transboundary river basins. By developing future scenarios, it provides a foundation for adaptive governance and policy interventions to balance competing demands across sectors. These contributions enhance the understanding of nexus interconnections and offer a roadmap for strengthening system resilience in the face of global change.
How to cite: Sedighi, E., Fath, B., Kharrazi, A., and Rovenskaya, E.: Scenario-Based Exploration of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6453, 2025.
The growing frequency and severity of extreme and compound events will pose unprecedented water scarcity challenges. These challenges are not only driven by changes in water resource availability, but also in water demands and quality, and can affect both arid and non-arid regions. As a consequence, trade-offs between rural and urban water uses across multiple sectors intensify. Behaviors, infrastructures, and institutions in many historically water-abundant regions are not adapted to efficiently allocate water under critical levels of scarcity. The resulting water scarcity risks so far receive insufficient attention. We integrate hydro-economic models in order to assess the potential for increasing trade-offs between rural and urban water use under socio-economic and climate change scenarios in a case study in Germany. We find that a multiplication in irrigation water demands in the relatively precipitation-scarce eastern part of the country threatens to compete with urban water consumption peaks under droughts and heat waves. Enhancing resilience for these water conflicts will require adaptation measures that equally account for human and natural scarcity drivers and that consistently consider the value of water across all rural and urban sectors.
How to cite: Klassert, C., Heilemann, J., Werner, S., Nagpal, M., Digman, E., Klauer, B., and Gawel, E.: Rural-urban water scarcity risks in historically water-abundant regions: The role of intensifying human-natural systems variability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18310, 2025.
Efficient water management in irrigated agriculture is crucial for sustaining food production and addressing water scarcity in semi-arid basins. In the Tapi basin, India, an imbalance between water withdrawals and agricultural water demand (AWD) has led to constant deficits and severe water scarcity. Using the SPHY-WA framework, this study quantified water withdrawals, consumed water, and water scarcity for irrigated croplands from 2003 to 2020. Average agricultural withdrawals were 12.0 BCM/year, primarily sourced from groundwater (83%), while AWD was estimated at 39.0 BCM/year, resulting in an average water deficit of 26.0 BCM/year. Consumed water averaged 8.0 BCM/year, with 4.0 BCM/year contributing to return flows. The Water Scarcity Index (WSI) analysis revealed severe to extreme water scarcity (WSI > 1) across the basin, with critical hotspots in Nashik, Jalgaon, Buldana, Aurangabad, and Dhule districts. Temporal trends showed declining withdrawals and stable demand, widening the supply-demand gap, particularly during dry years. Inefficient irrigation, excessive blue water evapotranspiration, and extensive cropland acreage were identified as key contributors to water scarcity. This study underscores the need for improving irrigation efficiency and optimizing water use in agriculture. The integration of WSI into the SPHY-WA framework enhances spatiotemporal analysis, providing actionable insights for sustainable water resource management in water-stressed regions.
How to cite: Patle, P. and Sharma, A.: Quantifying Agricultural Water Scarcity and Demand-Supply Dynamics in the Tapi Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14743, 2025.
Freshwater is fundamental to Earth system processes, yet its global dynamics are often overlooked in water governance. With half of all terrestrial precipitation originating from land evaporation, the global interdependencies of atmospheric moisture flows remain underrepresented in policies addressing water security and climate adaptation. In particular, its impacts on global supply chains have not been assessed so far. Therefore, we here assess the interactions between the global network of atmospheric water with the international trade network, which we quantify by virtual water trade embedded in agricultural commodities. We conceptualise country-scale dependencies across three dimensions:
i) Geopolitical, examining how countries source and receive water through interconnected moisture networks;
ii) Physical, relating water scarcity and hydrological stress to network characteristics;
iii) Virtual, revealing dependencies and potential impacts from atmospheric moisture transport to virtual water flows.
In this work, we build on a previous dataset of bilateral atmospheric moisture flows, which has been reconciled to close the water balance, as well as an established virtual water trade network to construct global networks that quantify countries' roles and vulnerabilities in the hydrological cycle through network measures. Preliminary findings highlight key hubs and dependencies within these coupled networks, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture flows underpin both regional water security and global water governance. Our study advances the understanding of the interconnectedness of atmospheric and virtual water flows, linking physical and economic water systems to support sustainable water resource management globally.
How to cite: Fahrländer, S. F., Andersen, L. S., Gerten, D., Tuninetti, M., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Staal, A., Rockström, J., and Wunderling, N.: Exploring global interdependencies from the hydrological cycle to virtual water flows through a network analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15699, 2025.
Water is an essential resource for the development of any economy as well as for human well-being. However, recent environmental crises, such as long periods of drought, are increasingly jeopardising the availability of this resource. The water footprint is caused not only by productive activity but also by household consumption. Thus, households also have a responsibility to be aware of their consumption, as their consumption patterns will produce a certain water footprint.
It is in this context that we propose this article. Using a socially (different income groups) as well as environmentally (blue and green water footprint) extended multi-regional and multi-sectoral input-output model, we aim to analyse the per capita blue water footprint of European households for the year 2021. Not only that, but through a spatial structural decomposition analysis, we aim to investigate the disparities in the water footprint of European households, trying to find out what factors lie behind these differences. We intend to do this research not only for the total number of European households, but also for their income quintiles.
The first results show that households in the most developed European economies have the largest per capita blue water footprint. Behind this footprint is the fact that the intensity effect distances these powers from the European average. On the other hand, the consumption patterns of these economies are more water intensive than the average European region, especially in domestic terms. This would lead us to highlight the importance of developing measures to raise consumer awareness of water consumption in these countries.
How to cite: Miranda Buetas, S., Duarte Pac, R., and Sarasa Fernández, C.: Blue and Green Water Footprint disparities of European households: A spatial structural decomposition analysis approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18436, 2025.
The complex interactions between water and food systems are central to global sustainability challenges. Agriculture, the largest consumer of freshwater, plays a pivotal role in shaping water quantity and quality worldwide. The intensification of food production has led to widespread environmental damages, including groundwater depletion, nutrient pollution and biodiversity loss. Integrated and inter-disciplinary approaches are essential to address these interconnected issues. This presentation explores the global-scale interactions between water resources and food systems, focusing on agricultural water demand, virtual water trade, and the impacts of nutrient pollution on aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity.
Virtual water trade, which accounts for the transfer of water embedded in traded agricultural goods, has become a crucial component of global food systems. The effects of food trade on water resources is variable, with sometimes an overall efficient, water-saving outcome, and in other cases, increasing depletion of local water resources in exporting nations. Besides, land-use and land-use change driven by the expansion of agricultural activities are significant contributors to terrestrial biodiversity loss, due to habitat conversion and climate change.
In addition to water quantity, the quality of water resources is severely impacted by agricultural inputs, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. Excessive nutrient application can lead to eutrophication, algal blooms, and hypoxic zones, threatening aquatic biodiversity and the associated ecosystem services.
This presentation will discuss findings from hydrological, agricultural, and life cycle assessment (LCA) models to evaluate the global-scale impacts of agricultural practices on water availability, quality, and ecosystem health.
Our results reveal that current agricultural practices are unsustainable for many regions, with high water-use intensity and excess fertiliser application leading to significant water scarcity and biodiversity loss. The findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable interventions, including adopting more drought-resistant crop varieties and livestock species, optimizing fertilizer application, shifting diets towards less resource-intensive products, and leveraging virtual water trade to reduce stress in vulnerable regions.
This research contributes to understanding the global interplay between water and food systems, supporting mitigation interventions. By aligning with the session's objectives to address large-scale water management challenges, it advocates for interdisciplinary collaboration and scalable solutions that integrate advanced modelling, policy frameworks, and sustainable practices. This approach is vital to preserving aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity, ensuring food security, and achieving long-term water sustainability.
How to cite: Dalin, C., Benitez, B., Boakes, E., Chapman, A., Guilbert, M., and Jwaideh, M.: Water and food: sustainability of global agricultural systems and their impacts on water resources and aquatic biodiversity. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2541, 2025.
Nitrogen (N) supports food production, but its excess causes water pollution. We lack understanding of the boundary of N for water quality while considering complex relationships between N inputs and instream N-concentrations. Our knowledge is limited in regional reduction targets to secure food production. Here we aim to derive a spatially-explicit boundary of N inputs to rivers for surface water quality using a bottom-up approach, and to explore ways to meet the derived N boundary while considering the associated impacts on both surface water quality and food production in China. We modified a multi-scale nutrient modelling system simulating around 6.5 Tg of N inputs to rivers that are allowed for whole of China in 2012. Maximum allowed N inputs to rivers are higher for intensive food production regions and lower for highly urbanized regions. When fertilizer and manure use is reduced, 45-76% of the streams could meet the N water quality threshold under different scenarios. A comparison of ‘water quality first’ and ‘food production first’ scenarios indicates that trade-offs between water quality and food production exist in 2-8% of the streams, which may put 7-28% of crop production at stake. Finally, we modelled the surface water quality of N for 2050 under climate change and explored the associated management scenarios. The results indicate that N pollution in surface water could be avoided in China while ensuring food security by spatial planning of livestock production combined with state-of-art N management technologies. Clearly, our insights could support region-specific policies for improving water quality.
How to cite: Chen, X., Strokal, M., van Vliet, M., Liu, L., Bai, Z., Ma, L., and Kroeze, C.: Keeping Nitrogen Use in China within the Planetary Boundary Using a Spatially Explicit Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16542, 2025.
Consumption behaviors exert pressure on water resources both locally and globally through interconnected supply chains, hindering the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 6 (Clean water and sanitation) and 12 (Responsible consumption and production). However, it is challenging to link hotspots of water depletion across spatial scales to final consumption while reflecting intersectoral competition for water. Here, we estimate the global exceedance of regional freshwater boundaries (RFBs) due to human water withdrawal at a 5-arcmin grid scale using 2015 data, enabling the identification of hotspots across different spatial scales. To reduce uncertainty, we use average estimates from 15 global hydrological models and 5 environmental flow requirement methods. We further attribute the hotspots of exceedance to final consumption across 245 economies and 134 sectors via a multi-region input-output model, EMERGING. Our refined framework reveals previously unknown connections between regional hotspots and consumption through international trade. Notably, 24% of grid-level RFB exceedance (718.0 km3/yr; 95% confidence interval of 659.2-775.5 km3/yr) is outsourced through trade, with the largest flows (51.8 km3/yr; 95% confidence interval of 47.1-56.0 km3/yr) from water-stressed South-Central Asia to arid West Asia. The demand for cereals and other agricultural products dominates global consumption-based RFB exceedance (29.0%), while the exports of textiles and machinery and equipment exacerbate territorial exceedance in manufacturing hubs within emerging economies. Our analysis facilitates tracing global hotspots of water scarcity along the supply chain, and assigning responsibilities at finer scales.
How to cite: Zhao, X. and Hou, S.: Tracking grid-level freshwater boundary exceedance along global supply chains from consumption to impact, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19118, 2025.
The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus is a highly complex system that is difficult and time-consuming to construct models for. Yet these models are often necessary to assess how impacts from different control variables—such as policy-, population-, climate-, and land use changes—propagate through the WEF Nexus. Here we look at this problem through the lens of control systems theory, where control refers to how we manipulate or disturb the system.
Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and its many variants have shown promise in modelling ever-more complex dynamical systems based entirely on measurement data. In this study, we specifically look at DMD with control (DMDc) and evaluate how it may be used to assess policy impacts within the WEF nexus based entirely on data. DMDc takes state data and control input data and constructs a linear dynamical system. The resulting model allows for easy interpretation and manipulation of the control variables to investigate how the system evolves under e.g., different policies.
To assess the performance of DMDc for WEF Nexus purposes, we use an existing high-dimensional System Dynamics Model (SDM) of the WEF nexus to generate different policy-driven data scenarios, which are used to benchmark the DMDc method. DMDc shows promise at reconstructing and attributing the impacts of policies based on data generated by the SDM, despite the data being extremely underdetermined. However, there are several caveats and questions that remain, which we believe newer DMD variants may address.
How to cite: Jonsson, E., Sušnik, J., Masia, S., Francisco, A., Todorovic, A., Grabs, T., and Teutschbein, C.: Policy attribution based on data-driven control, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18715, 2025.
Transboundary aquifers (TBAs) are crucial for global food production, supporting about a quarter of the world’s irrigated cropland. However, they remain inadequately regulated, with fewer than 10 international treaties addressing shared groundwater. This lack of regulation raises concerns about potential international tensions stemming from water competition and the premature depletion of these vital resources.
Analyzing data from 170,000 wells, we found that while TBAs are not significantly more overexploited than non-transboundary aquifers, wells located near international borders exhibit higher depletion rates. This pattern aligns with increased competition driven by transboundary interactions. New spatial data on irrigated cropland reveals that competition is concentrated in about half of the country pairs sharing an aquifer, where irrigated cropland is situated close enough to borders to cause cross-border groundwater drawdown. In most of these cases, the TBA extent is small and contributes only a minor portion of national irrigation, which raises the potential for negotiated management. However, about 20% of the cases represent high-priority hotspots due to strong transboundary interactions and the strategic importance of the aquifer, which overlays a substantial portion of both countries’ irrigated cropland. Implementing zone-based pumping restrictions could alleviate competitive pressures in these areas, making them key targets to consider for ongoing efforts to support transboundary groundwater cooperation.
How to cite: Muller, M. F.: Groundwater Depletion and water competition in transboundary aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9316, 2025.
Irrigation is a land management practice with major environmental impacts. However, global energy consumption and carbon emissions resulting from irrigation remain unknown. We assess the worldwide energy consumption and carbon emissions associated with irrigation, while also measuring the potential energy and carbon reductions achievable through the adoption of efficient and low-carbon irrigation practices. Currently, irrigation contributes 216 million metric tons of CO2 emissions and consumes 1896 petajoules of energy annually, representing 15% of greenhouse gas emissions and energy utilized in agricultural operations. Despite only 40% of irrigated agriculture relies on groundwater sources, groundwater pumping accounts for 89% of the total energy consumption in irrigation. Projections indicate that future expansion of irrigation could lead to a 28% increase in energy usage. Embracing highly efficient, low-carbon irrigation methods has the potential to cut energy consumption in half and reduce CO2 emissions by 90%. However, considering country-specific feasibility of mitigation options, global CO2 emissions may only see a 55% reduction. Our research offers comprehensive insights into the energy consumption and carbon emissions associated with irrigation, contributing valuable information that can guide assessments of the viability of irrigation in enhancing adaptive capacity within the agricultural sector.
How to cite: Qin, J. and Duan, W.: Global Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in Irrigated Agriculture: Challenges and Pathways, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1622, 2025.
Despite relevant environmental, social, and financial risks, developing countries are increasingly pursuing hydropower development, including 300 new hydropower projects planned in Africa for a total of around 100 GW of new installed capacity. African rivers, however, are among the most biodiverse ecosystems. Their unique biodiversity might be in peril as hydropower projects are generally designed according to techno-economic considerations, with limited consideration of environmental aspects.
In this work, we develop an integrated modeling framework to explore synergies and trade-offs associated with alternative hydropower development strategies in Africa. Specifically, we first investigate alternative options for hydropower development through the soft-link of a surface water quality model (i.e. DYNQUAL) with an energy system planning model (i.e. OSeMOSYS-TEMBA). The former simulates river discharge and water temperature at a 5-arcminutes resolution across the African continent; the latter identifies least-cost power capacity expansion plans where hydropower generation is conditioned on the simulated water availability at each power plant site. Then, we combine the DYNQUAL model simulations incorporating the selected hydropower projects to estimate the regulated dynamics of river discharge and temperature with the GLOBIO-Species model, which allows assessing the impacts on African freshwater fish biodiversity. The analysis is conducted for historical as well as projected socio-economic and climate conditions using a multi-model ensemble that includes different combinations of Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways.
Preliminary results show that fish biodiversity has been already impacted by the existing hydropower infrastructures. Over the next decades, these negative impacts will be amplified. Most of these impacts can be attributed to the increasing water temperature associated with climate change, while the construction of additional hydropower plants appears less important.
How to cite: Giuliani, M., Capponi, S., Pelicci, A., Bonato, V., Bonserio, T., Sutanudjaja, E., Barbarossa, V., Schipper, A., Bierkens, M., and Castelletti, A.: Elucidating hydropower impacts on fish biodiversity across African rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13905, 2025.
This study addresses the pressing need for sustainable energy infrastructure in the Eastern Nile Basin region, focusing on the integration of Floating Solar Photovoltaics (FPVs) in long-term energy planning. FPVs offer advantages over land-based photovoltaics, such as reducing capital costs by utilizing existing infrastructure at hydropower dams and reducing evaporation. Given the region's growing population and high competition for water, our research introduces a novel framework that explores the dual benefits of water conservation and reduced land use, alongside policy targets for lowering carbon emissions through increased integration of renewables in the power mix.
The study advances existing models by incorporating FPV technology into the OSeMOSYS tool, an open-source model for optimizing national energy generation mixes. Our research presents a spatially explicit framework for long-term energy system planning that integrates land use and water conservation metrics at reservoirs within the energy planning process. The role of FPVs in the region’s energy pathways is evaluated by endogenizing the costs of CO2 emissions and land use, while considering water savings. Our analysis develops and implements a new methodology for land-use accounting and pricing, and assesses the potential of FPVs to reduce evaporation across a network of hydropower reservoirs. This expanded modeling framework is then utilized to analyze various scenarios, including different hydrological regimes under CMIP climate change projections and policy measures such as the introduction of taxes on carbon emissions and land-use, and regional electricity trade links.
Results indicate that FPVs can cost-effectively provide up to 3% of the region's electricity generation by 2065, saving up to 376 million cubic meters of water annually. Scenarios introducing carbon and land-use taxes increase FPV's share in the power generation mix to 4.5% and enable earlier FPV deployment. While climate impacts minimally affect FPV's role, the technology slightly reduces CO2 emissions (0.4%) and land use (1.6%) in the baseline scenario without taxes. A carbon tax alone reduces emissions by 11-23% but raises land use by up to 8% due to increased wind, hydro, and solar deployment. Land tax alone reduces land use by 5-8% with minimal impact on emissions. However, combining land and carbon taxes reduces emissions (by 12% to 22%) and land use (a decrease of 1.6% or an increase of 1.2%). The optimal locations for FPV deployment are identified as Lake Nasser (2.1 GW), Renaissance Dam (6.4 GW), and Merowe Dam (1.2 GW), leveraging existing hydropower infrastructure. These findings demonstrate that FPVs represent a promising adaptation strategy for energy planning offering multiple co-benefits including reduced water evaporation, efficient land use, and emissions mitigation, particularly when supported by appropriate environmental pricing policies.
How to cite: Abraham, E. and Pieruzzi, A.: Integrating Floating Photovoltaics in Long-term Energy Planning of Eastern Nile Basin Countries: Synergies Between Water Conservation, Land Use, and Emissions Reduction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17072, 2025.
Solar energy is projected to become the main player in the clean energy transition. This will inevitably lead to the construction of utility scale photovoltaic plants, which can generate local competitions for land, especially with agriculture, compounding with other pressures on the agricultural sector such as climate change and demographic increase. From a Water-Energy-Food-Environment Nexus perspective, the superposition of panels and croplands on the same land, often referred to as agrivoltaics, can transform this competition into a synergy, thanks to the mutual provision of benefits between plants and panels. Under which conditions these synergies occur has been extensively studied at the local scale, while large-scale studies bridging the gap between the global energy transition challenge and its local limitations are still an emerging line of research. Here we quantify the current competition between photovoltaic and agriculture by cross-referencing high-resolution global datasets, and we assess the impact of shading from panels on water-stressed rainfed agriculture globally. To do so, we force a spatially distributed crop specific agro-hydrological model with different levels of solar radiation attenuation, and assess changes in water stress and biomass production rates to derive the associated yield response. Finally, we combine these results with a multi-criteria filtering approach and tolerance thresholds on yield losses to identify global croplands convertible to agrivoltaics. We find that 13%-16% of the global ground-mounted photovoltaic plants can be directly associated with a loss in croplands, while for 22% to 35% of the global rainfed croplands agrivoltaics would provide negligible damages if not benefits. In particular in arid and hot climates, agrivoltaics can reduce water stress, improving water use efficiency and yields. While such a study cannot be used as a feasibility study for agrivoltaic plants locally, it helps identifying regions where agrivoltaics can be a promising solution worth further investigation. This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)
How to cite: Galli, N., Curioni, M., Capone, F., Manzolini, G., and Rulli, M. C.: Co-location of agriculture and solar energy from a global WEFE-Nexus perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18291, 2025.
Posters on site: Wed, 30 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall A
Natural resources are under significant pressures, such as increasing population, consumption patterns, land use changes and global warming. Neglecting the pressures and the interactions of resources increases the competition between urban, agricultural and industrial sectors. In addition, water stress affects ecosystem functionality, economic development and social equity. Thus, it is essential to develop integrated water management alternatives considering various objectives. Sustainable approaches should support the success of long-term policies while reducing environmental risks. One of them, the Circular Economy (CE) aims to minimize the gap between supply and demand across the sectors and can be effective in sustainable future development. The Porsuk Watershed in Türkiye is a semi-arid region covering an area of 10,825 km2. The watershed hosts a rich biodiversity while anthropogenic activities pose a threat to ecosystem services. The Porsuk Stream, a tributary of the Sakarya River, has a length of 448 km and is the main source of urban water supply, irrigation water and industrial production. In addition, there is a significant dependence on groundwater across the sectors. The aim of this study is to assess strategies of sustainable water resources management to enhance security and reliability by comparing the performances of Circular Economy models such as Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Replenish. Thus, understanding the complex synergistic and trade-off relationships in resource management within the watershed will contribute to stakeholders in the decision-making process. A hydrological model of the Porsuk stream is created using Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) software between 2004-2022. The most preferred water allocation alternatives are selected according to environmental and economic indicators using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Scenarios are performed at multiple demand sites in the hydrological model. Accordingly, Reduce alternatives helps to reduce water deficit levels and affect water allocation in the watershed. With the Reuse, Recycle and Replenish scenarios, pressures of agriculture and industry sectors on the groundwater aquifer are mitigated. In addition, the change in environmental flows is compared according to business-as-usual (BAU) and different scenario combinations.
How to cite: Şipal, S., Şenocak, İ., Yapan, B. İ., and Alp, E.: Assessment of Sustainable Water Management Strategies in Porsuk Watershed Using Hydrological WEAP Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-918, 2025.
Reservoir hydropower offers a compelling combination of stability and flexibility services for modern water and power grids. However, its operating flexibility is poorly characterized in energy system planning, missing opportunities to cost-effectively uptake variable renewable energy (VRE) for a clean energy transition. In this study, we have developed a fully coupled reservoir operation and energy expansion model to quantify the economic and environmental benefits attained from adaptive hydropower operation in a high VRE future. Our case study of the China Southern Power Grid reveals that, in a 2050 net-zero grid, simply adapting hydropower operations to balance VRE can reduce 2018–2050 total system costs by 7% (that is, US$28.2 billion) and simultaneously save 123.8 km3 of water each year (that is, more than three times the reservoir capacity of the Three Gorges Dam). These vast, yet overlooked, cost- and water-saving potentials highlight the importance of incorporating balancing-oriented hydropower operation into future pathways to jointly decarbonize and secure power and water grids.
How to cite: He, X. and Liu, Z.: Balancing-oriented hydropower operation makes the clean energy transition more affordable and simultaneously boosts water security, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2970, 2025.
Driven by water resources scarcity, Inter-Basin Water Transfer (IBWT) projects have emerged and evolved, shaping our current water supply framework. As these IBWT unfolded, they gradually acquired network characteristics, giving rise to the IBWT network. What impact will the development of IBWT networks have on water supply patterns? Analyzing the spatial and temporal growth pattern of IBWT networks through the lens of complex network theory can help answer this question. In this study, we establish a framework for analyzing IBWT networks based on complex network theory. Within the framework, we analyze the spatial and temporal development characteristics of the IBWT network, quantifying its global properties across three dimensions: Efficiency, Elasticity, and Coordination. To measure the significance of individual nodes, six centrality indicators are employed. Lastly, the Infomap method is employed for network community detection. The results demonstrate that the CNA-based framework effectively captures the comprehensive development of the IBWT network, which has undergone six stages from inception to high-speed, close-range, and long-range Stages. IBWT network efficiency, elasticity, and coordination all show growth. The growth is most pronounced in 2013-2022, where Scaled global efficiency, Network efficiency, Average node connectivity, and Average Betweenness centrality metrics all grew by a factor of greater than 4. Importantly, the total percentage of centrality greater than 0.2 in the Huang-Huai-Hai-Chang Basin is 63.0%. The 125 IBWT projects in the past of the IBWT network detected 58 communities, and the subsequent future construction of 57 projects added only 12. Since the fourth phase, new IBWT network projects have tended to join existing communities.
How to cite: Wang, L., He, F., and Zhao, Y.: How to Develop Inter-Basin Water Transfer Networks: From the Perspective of Complex Network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2200, 2025.
Between two and three billion people experience water scarcity for at least one month per year, posing severe risks to livelihoods. Inter-basin water transfers (IBWTs) have been used to address water scarcity, supporting the economic development of recipient basins. IBWTs often provide water for multiple sectors, such as drinking water supply and food, energy and industrial production. However, IBWTs have significant adverse impacts during and after their construction, including community displacement, depletion of water resources in donor basins, introduction of invasive species and environmental pollution. Furthermore, it is recognized that these transfers can be energy intensive when water is pumped uphill to cross mountain ranges from donor to recipient basins, resulting in localized energy demands at pumping stations. Yet, a detailed analysis of their energy consumption at the global scale is currently lacking.
In this research, we therefore aimed to build a framework to calculate the energy consumption of IBWTs globally. We collected data concerning the paths, topography and infrastructure of 40 such megaprojects across the globe to quantify the elevation changes traversed by each IBWT. Then, a novel dataset with modelled time series of monthly reservoir discharge (1979-2023) was matched onto the transfer paths to evaluate the amount of water that was moved over time. We use these data as inputs for a physical model of energy consumption for water pumping of IBWT.
Results obtained with the newly developed model framework enable us to understand the influence of infrastructure development on the energy consumption of IBWTs in various regions globally. The gridded outputs of our model framework can be used for the spatial representation of energy consumption of IBWTs in Integrated Assessment Models and Energy Supply Models. Future work aims to expand the dataset to smaller scale inter-basin water transfers, and evaluate the tradeoffs between expanding global clean water provision and mitigating anthropogenic climate change.
How to cite: Magni, M., de Pauw, K., Steyaert, J. C., and van Vliet, M. T. H.: Global energy consumption of inter-basin water transfer megaprojects, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2819, 2025.
In recent years, Taiwan has encountered several severe drought events, with 2021 marking the most extreme drought in over half a century. Our main food crop, paddy, relies on a stable and consistent water supply. To mitigate dependence on reservoir systems, rainwater harvesting has been identified as a promising decentralized water resource management strategy. This study integrates the distribution of paddy fields across cities in Taiwan with daily rainfall grid data from 2003 to 2022. By inputting different agricultural land areas (1,000 m² and 7,000 m²) under first or second crop seasons, along with daily domestic water demand, into the Yield-After-Spillage model, the study calculates water savings, volumetric reliability, satisfied days, and time reliability. This study also employs a rational formula to estimate the added values of rainwater tanks by flood reduction volumes. Finally, the water savings are used to calculate the cost-effectiveness, including net present value and payback period. This study discusses the impact of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall on the reliability and water savings of first and second rice cropping periods, as well as analyzes the economic feasibility by cost-effectiveness of varying rainwater tank sizes across different regions under diverse water pricing scenarios. The findings of this research provide practical references for both policymakers and farmers. Policy-makers can evaluate the economic feasibility of the rainwater harvesting systems based on simulation results and then formulate subsidy policies or technical guidelines to promote the efficient use of rainwater resources. Based on the study's recommendations, farmers can select rainwater harvesting solutions tailored to their needs, improving irrigation reliability and cost efficiency.
Keywords: Rainwater Harvesting; Rainwater Tank Size; Cost-effectiveness; Water Savings; Reliability; Flood Reduction.
How to cite: Lo, H. C. and Chen, P.-Y.: Assessing the Economic Feasibility of Rainwater Harvesting in Paddy-irrigation Water Savings and Flood-reduction Potentials in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3451, 2025.
The projected decrease in summer precipitation and the increase of harsher weather extremes will translate into a change in annual patterns of flood and drought (EEA, 2021); the “new normal” calls for solutions necessary to increase water resilience, ensuring water availability to preserve the ecological status of rivers, human health, and economic activities.
In recent years, the Po basin has provided a taste of how the new climate normality in the region could look like, with more severe droughts alternated with floods and flash flood episodes. The area is vital to the Italian economy, supporting 40% of GDP, 55% of national electricity generation, and 40% of food production. Even under normal conditions, balancing water resources in the area is complex due to competing demands from agriculture, industry, energy, human consumption, and ecological preservation.
Between 2021 and 2023 the Po basin experienced its worst drought in history: agriculture production decreased by 10%, for an estimated loss around 6 billion euros, energy production dropped by 37% with some thermoelectric plants shut down due to the lack of cooling water. Meanwhile floods and flash flood episodes have been increasing and foreseen to increase, causing fatalities and billions in damages. Between 2023 and 2024, the Emilia Romagna region experienced four devastating floods, causing 16 fatalities and damages for around 8 billion euros for the 2023 events only.
Under such a scenario, it becomes increasingly important to foster water resilience by enhancing our capacity to buffer flow extremes and sustainably retain water in the landscape. Nature-based solutions (NBS) may prove cost-effective by delivering benefits on multiple water and ecosystem processes. Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRM) in particular, are NBS that can help ‘keep the rain where it falls’ and comply with the hydraulic-hydrologic invariance (HHI) principles, which guides regional regulations.
In this contribution, we present an analysis of how NBS may help cope with the expected hydrological extremes in the Po basin.
We combined high-resolution data on flood risk, land economic value, and Natura 2000 to identify areas suitable for the creation of NBS. These areas could serve as a multipurpose, low-cost solution for storage, habitat restoration, and mitigating the effects of droughts and floods by storing water during high-flow events and releasing it during droughts.
We used the LISFLOOD model (De Roo, Wesseling, and Van Deursen, 2000), configured as the European Flood Forecasting System (EFAS 5) at 1 arcminute resolution (~1.4 km), to reproduce past high/low flow events. This allowed us to estimate the extent to which high flow (flood) volumes could have been partly detained and stored to make water resources available during low flow (drought) periods.
We identify areas suitable for the implementation of NWRMs following economic, landscape-ecological and hydraulic criteria, and we simulate how these NBS placed on the suitable identified areas, could cater for the needs of water management that we expect under climate change in the coming decades.
How to cite: Moschini, F. and Pistocchi, A.: Living with drought and floods in the Anthropocene: a case study on nature-based adaptation , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4745, 2025.
Countries with limited water resources are believed to be able to deal with water scarcity problems with the help of international trade. Instead of producing water-intensive products by themselves, importing water-intensive products can increase their access to global water resources and their water footprint per capita. Water embodied in international trade is called virtual water flows. However, recent studies show that international virtual water flows are composed of a significant amount of scarce water as well. Countries may face additional water scarcity problems because of this. It remains unclear whether or not the countries actually have more or less water scarcity problems due to international trade. We conducted a time series analysis for each country considering the scarce water in their water footprint from 1990 to 2019. The scarce water includes not only the scarce water consumed within the country but also the scarce water imported via international trade. We used a crop model, hydrological model, and input-output analysis to estimate water consumption, water scarcity, and virtual water flows. Our results advance our understanding of the dynamic relationship between international trade and water scarcity.
How to cite: Su, H., Mialyk, O., J. Hogeboom, R., and Berger, M.: Does international trade help us deal with water scarcity problems?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5651, 2025.
Increasing world population, economic development, and agricultural irrigation are leading to a steadily rising per capita demand for water. Climate change exacerbates water scarcity and affects the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Irrigation and improved water management practices can help mitigate climate change impacts by optimizing water use. However, these practices can also impact the local and regional climate. For instance, large-scale irrigation changes humidity and can influence circulation patterns. Therefore, a coupled socio-hydrological and climate modeling system is required to thoroughly investigate the complex interplay between climatic and socio-economic changes.
To improve the analysis of water-climate interactions, we are developing climate CWatM (C-CWatM) - a flexible modelling tool that can be coupled to (regional) climate modelling systems. Based on the socio-hydrological model CWatM, the new tool enables the simulation of hydrological quantities (e.g., discharge), sectoral water use, groundwater, and water reservoirs as part of climate model simulations. C-CWatM is designed as a standalone Python model that can be integrated into various climate modelling systems as it operates on standard climate and land surface variables.
Here, we present first results of combined simulations of C-CWatM and the regional climate model REMO in Europe. While a one-way coupling can provide water use estimates as part of the climate model output, full coupling offers the transfer of water use information to the climate model. For example, the water amount available for irrigation can be used to constrain existing irrigation routines in REMO, enabling more realistic simulation of the effects of extensive irrigation on local and regional climate processes. These analyses offer valuable insights for future water management strategies and climate change adaptation.
How to cite: Schmitt, A. and Greve, P.: Integrating socio-hydrological and climate models for improved water management under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6605, 2025.
The increasing demands for food and renewable energy are placing unprecedented pressure on water and land resources, a challenge further exacerbated by climate-induced declines in surface water availability. Globally widespread cropland abandonment presents a unique opportunity for strategic, multi-benefit land repurposing to enhance sustainable water, food, and energy management. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) offers a promising strategy to augment groundwater supplies for agriculture and ecosystems, while water-efficient variable renewable energy (VRE), such as wind power and solar photovoltaic (PV), offers potential to reduce surface water use for hydropower, allowing more water allocation for irrigation and MAR. Despite these promising synergies, the large-scale feasibility and socio-economic value of integrating MAR and VRE development on abandoned cropland remain unclear. In this study, we develop a multi-scale spatial optimization framework to identify priority locations for MAR and VRE expansion, aiming to enhance water, food, and energy security, particularly during droughts. We evaluate the benefits and trade-offs of repurposing global abandoned cropland under various strategies (i.e., MAR only, VRE only, and integrated MAR-VRE) across different climate conditions and spatial scales (local, regional, and global). Our findings highlight that multi-objective spatial optimization and cross-scale coordination are crucial for maximizing synergies and minimizing conflicts between MAR and VRE development. Our study reveals the untapped potential of abandoned cropland for water and energy expansion and proposes a scalable framework to support multi-benefit land management strategies that boost water-food-energy sustainability.
How to cite: Li, M. and He, X.: Strategic Repurposing of Abandoned Cropland for Aquifer Recharge and Renewable Energy Boosts Water-Food-Energy Sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6824, 2025.
Storage hydropower systems are pillars in clean energy production, especially in mountainous regions and higher altitudes where water availability is abundant. With the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, which are highly weather-dependent and often misaligned with energy demand, the role of hydropower reservoirs, which conversely can act as water batteries, is becoming more significant.
Modelling these systems within hydrological frameworks provides reliable tools for testing energy and water management policies. However, the missing knowledge of characteristics and regulation rules hampers the implementation of accurate human system modules into the modelling frameworks, especially over larger spatial domains.
As a case study, we select the Italian Alpine Region (IAR), characterised by a complex mountainous topography and significantly altered by the presence of human systems. This area covers Italy's entire northern mountain chain and houses over 300 large hydropower systems (i.e., with installed power above 3MW), representing up to 75% of all installed hydropower systems in Italy.
In this context, the study aims to simulate the hydroelectric system over IAR by introducing a new comprehensive inventory of hydropower-related infrastructures tailored to model the interaction between natural and human systems. In addition, we introduced a dynamic operating rule for the storage reservoirs, allowing us to simulate both storage and pumped-storage hydropower systems.
This modeling framework rule has been implemented in HYPERstreamHS, a hydrological model capable of simultaneously simulating hydropower production and assessing river network flow alteration. Our results show that the modelling framework, using accurate and detailed representations of hydropower systems and their operations within a hydrological model, not only robustly simulates hydroelectric systems behavior in IAR but also improves streamflow simulation.
How to cite: Zarghami Dastjerdi, S., Avesani, D., Galletti, A., and Majone, B.: Large-scale integrated hydrological modelling for hydroelectric generation in the Italian Alpine Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12858, 2025.
Climate change is intensifying water supply challenges, leading to extreme events that disrupt the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus. Addressing these interconnected issues requires sustainable pathways and innovative solutions, which require multidimensional data collection. Given the complexity of climate-induced challenges, such as droughts and floods, a comprehensive approach is essential to ensure sustainable water management solutions. Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents a powerful tool for analyzing vast datasets and understanding the complex interrelationships among these sectors. Despite the recent advances in the field of AI applied to water resources management, the methods focused on the WEFE nexus have been poorly understood. Thus, this research systematically reviews AI methodologies applicable to water resources management by structuring research questions, defining search terms, and applying rigorous inclusion and exclusion criteria to ensure relevant document selection. A multi-step screening process, guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework, was applied to publications from 2012 to 2021. This process resulted in the selection of 83 original papers, which were categorized into four distinct topics: water (37 papers), energy (24 papers), food (5 papers), and ecosystems (17 papers) seeking to answer the following research question: how can AI enhance decision-making processes for water security in different sectors? Preliminary results indicate that effective AI integration can significantly reduce economic losses in critical sectors, boost productivity, and foster sustainable societal development. For example, AI-driven models can improve water demand forecasting, optimizing energy usage in irrigation, and supporting the design of resilient food production systems. Climate challenges, like extreme weather unpredictability and data scarcity, complicate water management. However, AI offers opportunities by analyzing complex datasets to predict scenarios and enhance decision-making. Furthermore, these technologies provide valuable insights for ecosystem preservation by monitoring biodiversity and assessing environmental impacts, enabling more sustainable and proactive strategies. The findings underscore the potential of AI to bridge gaps in data availability for maintaining the activities in each sector of the nexus and enhance real-time decision-making. They also highlight the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and capacity building to maximize AI's benefits. These insights offer a pathway to enhanced resilience, adaptive capacity, and long-term sustainability in WEFE management under changing climate conditions, which is in accordance with Sustainable Development Goals 6 (water), 7 (energy) and 13 (climate action).
Keywords: WEFE nexus (Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem); Artificial Intelligence (AI); Water security; Climate change adaptation; Sustainable development.
How to cite: Silva, P. G. C. D., Benso, M. R., Baviskar, G., Silva, G. M. E., Mendiondo, E. M., and Krol, M. S.: Artificial intelligence for water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus management under climate change: insights and implications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13079, 2025.
Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in human well-being, providing resources, regulating and maintaining environmental processes, as well as offering cultural and recreational benefits. Different studies have assessed Mountain Ecosystem Services (MESs) through both qualitative and quantitative methods. However, significant gaps remain, particularly in understanding the trade-offs and synergies among MESs and their influence on the demand and supply dynamics of water, energy, and food (WEF) resources.
This study focuses on the ecosystem services of the Orco Valley in Piedmont, Italy, combining biophysical, economic, and sociocultural dimensions. The primary MESs provided by the watershed were classified following the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) framework. Their quantification was achieved through a combination of regional datasets and modeling with the INVEST tool, where applicable. These MESs were subsequently assigned an economic value using the Total Economic Value (TEV) framework. Spatial representation and analysis were conducted using GIS, while statistical methods were employed to explore the interconnections and interactions among the various services
Our findings underscore the potential of MESs as a framework to quantify WEF interconnections and resource dynamics in mountain watersheds. Scenario analyses reveal strategies to maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs among WEF resources, with economic feasibility assessments providing actionable guidance. For instance, while hydropower production supports energy supply, it often reduces in-stream water availability, impacting biodiversity and ecological balance. Similarly, water releases optimized for energy generation can conflict with downstream agricultural demands.
By analyzing the impacts of anthropogenic factors on MESs, the study aims to provide practical insights for policy and decision-making, focusing on how MESs can contribute to addressing the intricate linkages within WEF systems and advancing sustainable management of mountain watershed resources.
How to cite: Alfano, M. E., Savoldi, L., and Poggi, D.: Mountain Ecosystem Services as a Framework for Water-Energy-Food Nexus Management: Insights from the Orco Valley, Piedmont, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15211, 2025.
Agriculture accounts for the majority of global freshwater consumption, underscoring the importance of accurate crop water footprint (WF) estimation to ensure sustainable water use and secure food supplies. Given agriculture’s extensive reliance on freshwater resources, precise WF assessments are crucial for effective resource management and policy-making. Variations in crop WF estimates arise across fields, basins, regions, and countries due to differing methodologies, agro-climatic conditions, regional agricultural practices, and data availability. Most studies have focused on estimating only green and blue WF, often overlooking the water quality dimension (grey WF) and the distinctions among the individual footprints (green, blue, and grey). These variations are critical for understanding diverse water uses and their impacts on both water quantity and quality. This study assessed the variation in all three WFs and measures to address this variability under different WF estimation approaches and scales. Five significant WF estimation approaches were considered: field crop water requirement (FCWR), field soil water balance (FSWB), regional water balance (RWB), remote sensing (RS), and field measured water balance (FMWB). The WF variation for wheat, rice, maize, potato, and sugarcane was assessed from 2002 to 2023. The analysis suggests that the FSWB approach has less variability in WF estimation than the FCWR approach, with the coefficient of variation (CV) for rice, wheat, and maize under the FSWB approach being 45.25%, 61.16%, and 86.21%, respectively. RWB and RS approaches show higher accuracy and feasibility at regional, basin, and country scales. The FMWB approach is the most accurate at the field scale and exhibits the lowest variation in WF estimate, with CVs of 32.23% for rice and 24.49% for wheat. Additionally, the FMWB approach can be used to calibrate and validate other large-scale approaches due to its limitation of upscaling and advantage of higher accuracy. A case study was also performed to estimate WF using the FCWR approach for sugarcane and wheat crops in the Hindon River basin in India to assess the variability in WF estimation. The total WF of sugarcane and wheat was 266.93 m³/t and 1506 m³/t, respectively, showing variation as these values are nearly equal to, more than, or less than many national and international studies. This variation could be due to scale, data availability, methodology, agro-climatic conditions, and regional agricultural practices. It is recommended that the effects of scale, data accuracy, and suitability of WF estimation approaches for specific crops be considered when making regional water policies based on WF estimation.
Keywords: Water Footprint, Methodology, Scale variability, Crop, Sustainable Agriculture
How to cite: Yadav, B., Koradia, A., Pandey, A., Chowdary, V., and Kk, C.: Exploring the Sensitivity of Crop Water Footprints to Scale and Estimation Methods in Sustainable Agriculture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-98, 2025.
