Extraction to End-Use: Revisiting the Representation of a Dynamic Full Supply Chain with High-Resolution Endogenized Demand Sectors

Climate scenario results are increasingly being used by a wide range of stakeholders outside traditional climate policymaking, such as bankers assessing ESG disclosures or companies planning sustainability strategies. However, the broad, global, and generalized nature of these scenarios often leads to misinterpretation or misuse, highlighting the importance of high-resolution, sector-specific representation for more practical applications.

Based on the technology-rich process modeling of the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, we present the updated version with high-resolution endogenized demand sectors (MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM_2.0_BMT, where B represents Building, M for Material, and T for Transport) that will be able to: i) capture energy and material flows through the full supply chain across regions; ii) apply scenarios with sector-level policies/standards that target upstream and downstream emissions or resource use; iii) reveal final energy consumptions induced by demand changes (including demand-side mitigation options such as behavioral changes); iv) identify the role of recycling in the decarbonization transition.

IAMs have relied heavily on input from Life Cycle Assessment to refine their process modeling. With such inputs (e.g., sources and regional flows of raw materials), additionally we were able to spotlight the material and energy embedded in energy and non-energy capacities/infrastructures in the full picture that an IAM can provide. The scenario result set will be more relevant to sector-level policymakers and stakeholders, as it shows how the technology shift of one sector occurs within a system supported by all capacities, infrastructure, and investment along the supply chain, rather than presenting a simplified dynamic as if this sector evolved in isolation.