A high-fidelity physics-based approach towards contrail and contrail cirrus persistence and longevity

We present a brief outcome of our research with focus on recently developed persistence modeling framework referred to as AP3 “Accuracy Preserving Physics-based Persistence” model. The purpose of this framework is to predict the evolution of contrail to contrail cirrus and cirrus cloud over the course of >12hrs with preserved accuracy from the formation throughout its lifetime. The model captures nucleation of ice on  particles through Gibbs-Free-Energy (GFE)-based classical nucleation theory (CNT) and accounts for particles coating and morphology on their nucleation propensity, which allows a physics-based representation of the dynamics of ice formation and growth post-sublimation. Other features of the model include,  a DNS-based subgrid model for cloud-turbulence interaction, a source-based approach to account the impact of the cloud on surrounding atmospheric flow and a computationally efficient approach to track the cloud in earth-frame. AP3 is the learning machine for the PIML forecaster that is being developed as part of the ARPA-e CONFIRMMS program.