Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Vineyard Ripening and Water Dynamics: A Case Study from the Taurasi DOCG in Southern Italy

Climate change poses long-term risks to agriculture, driven by shifts in temperature, precipitation, and increased extreme weather events. Rising temperatures shift growing seasons, while altered precipitation affects water availability. Extreme weather, including intense rainfall, increases the risk of soil erosion and runoff. These changes are particularly important for vineyards, where grape ripening timing, crucial for wine quality, is affected. Vineyards, often located in hilly regions, also face soil degradation, impacting not only production but sectors like eno-tourism.

In this study - under the AGRITECH PNRR project - an experimental vineyard at Tenuta Donna Elvira in Montemiletto (AV), located in the Taurasi DOCG district (southern Italy), was used to assess the impact of climate change on soil and vineyard dynamics. The research included the following activities: i) identifying functional homogeneous zones (fHZs) in the vineyard using lidar-derived Digital Terrain Models (DTM), electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensor data, and vegetation indices derived from UAV flights; ii) Monitoring soil water content, agro-meteorological variables, leaf water potential, and leaf area index (LAI) over two years; iii) Conducting soil analysis on two distinct but adjacent soil types, evaluating their chemical, mechanical, and hydrological properties.

For both soils, the agro-hydrological model FLOWS was first calibrated and validated. Subsequently, simulations were conducted to assess conditions under the current climate (ACT: 2016–2023), near future (NEAR: 2025–2049), mid-future (MID: 2050–2074), and far future (FAR: 2075–2099) across three climate scenarios. These scenarios were derived from datasets provided by the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), utilizing three General Circulation Models (GCMs)—MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, and GFDL-ESM4—and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP7.0, and RCP8.5). The models were locally validated against ground data (precipitation and mean temperature) for the period 2006–2023 and bias-corrected using a linear technique with 10 years of data (2014–2023) from a weather station located approximately 10 km from the study site in Luogosano (PZ).

The results indicated that under the RCP2.6 scenario, the ripening date remains stable, while under RCP7 and RCP8.5, ripening advances by up to 6 weeks. The increase in groundwater recharge due to climate change is minimal, with an increase of less than 6% in the far future for both soils. Soil 1 is, on average, 50% more effective at preventing runoff and flooding than Soil 2. Runoff increases from the RCP2.6 scenario to the RCP7 scenario and further under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Challenges with GCMs include inconsistencies in predicting climate variables, emphasizing the need for ensemble approaches. Despite these challenges, process-based models have proven reliable for predicting agricultural outcomes, especially in managing vineyard ecosystems under climate change.