Evaluating climate change impacts on biodiversity using hyper resolution hydrologic modelling

There are a multitude of studies that look at the impact of changes in streamflow and water quality on aquatic biodiversity both regionally and globally. However, few studies have considered the direct effects of hydrological alterations on biodiversity at high spatial resolution. This is due to the fact that only a limited number of hydrological models can produce relevant information for assessing ecological impacts at the relevant spatial resolution. One approach for such ecological assessments builds upon species distribution models (SDMs).  Studies that usually couple the hydrologic and (SDMs) typically employ hydrologic models on a 10km spatial resolution or coarser. Using the Rhine basin as a case study, we link two hyper resolution models (models at a 1km spatial resolution) for hydrology (PCRGLOBWB2) and species distribution (Random Forest) to i) develop a framework for evaluating climate impacts on biodiversity, and ii) assess the suitability of current and future freshwater habitats for fish species. Preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of this framework for identifying the historic biodiversity values for the Rhine and for developing indicators to monitor changes in aquatic biodiversity.