The shadow of the wind: photovoltaic power generation under Europe's dusty skies

The impact of the Sahara dust storm events on photovoltaic power generation in Europe will be presented. In recent years, driven by global sustainability, climate and energy security objectives, photovoltaic power generation has been expanding worldwide, with a particular focus on the European continent. We are also witnessing a change in the frequency and intensity of Saharan dust storm events. Atmospheric particulate matter significantly reduces irradiance through its direct and indirect effects, with energy flux changes sometimes having serious economic and security of supply implications. 

In a diverse energy mix, which varies significantly from state to state, weather-dependent renewable generation must be forecasted to meet the delicate balancing needs of electricity supply, which poses a major challenge to the system operator. Analysis of the accuracy of the forecasts has shown that this is subject to significant errors and that the magnitude of these errors is larger during dust storm events than during non-dust storm situations. In the photovoltaic power generation data series of the southern (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Greece) and central European (Hungary) countries  presented here, we characterise episodes where atmospheric dust caused irradiance and electricity production to deviate significantly from the predicted levels.

Key Takeaways:

(1) The influence of atmospheric particulate matter is substantial for both photovoltaic (PV) production and generation forecasting. This effect is likely more pronounced with meridional (south-north) dust transport due to a steeper thermal gradient, which intensifies cloud formation processes through warm air advection and increased fine-grained particulate mass.

(2) Accurate PV production forecasts cannot be achieved using coarse-resolution aerosol climatology data without aerosol-cloud coupling. Instead, calculations should integrate up-to-date dust load data and relevant cloud physics relationships.

(3) The quantities of atmospheric dust, the dynamics of its transport, and the mineralogical and physical properties (such as grain size and shape) of the dust are not well understood. These factors have diverse impacts on cloud formation processes, necessitating further research for better comprehension.

(4) Due to climate change and the inherent variability of the climate system, forecasts are made under fluctuating hydrometeorological and atmospheric conditions, which inherently carry uncertainties. These errors are expected to become more significant with increasing PV capacity, thus managing them will require expanding electricity storage capacities alongside more precise forecasts.

The research was supported by the NRDI projects FK138692 and by the Sustainable Development and Technologies National Programme of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (FFT NP FTA). This work has been implemented by the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014) project within the framework of Hungary's National Recovery and Resilience Plan supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility of the European Union.