Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment for Taiwan

We propose a seismic risk assessment for Taiwan, focusing on establishing a building exposure database, selecting appropriate fragility curves, and analyzing seismic hazards. To build the exposure database, we utilized data from multiple sources, including government statistical records, tax data, and building footprints extracted from satellite imagery. By integrating these datasets, we generated a comprehensive repository containing building locations, structural types, building storey, and construction ages. For each structural type, fragility curves describe vulnerability as a function of ground motion intensity. Since most fragility curves in Taiwan are outdated, we utilized the curves from the Global Earthquake Model taxonomy and validated their applicability through a scenario analysis of the 2024 M_L7.2 Hualien, Taiwan, earthquake. Seismic hazards were evaluated using the seismic model developed by the Taiwan Earthquake Model, which incorporates updated seismogenic sources and site conditions. By integrating the exposure, vulnerability, and hazard components, we assessed seismic risk over a specified period for Taiwan. Our risk map indicates that metropolitan areas in eastern and southwestern Taiwan may face higher seismic risk due to significant seismic hazards combined with the relatively high density of exposed buildings. This study provides valuable insights for disaster mitigation and earthquake reinsurance.