NH4.3 | Advances in Seismic Risk Assessment: From Source Characterization to Risk Mitigation
EDI
Advances in Seismic Risk Assessment: From Source Characterization to Risk Mitigation
Convener: Adriana Fatima Ornelas AgrelaECSECS | Co-conveners: Mario Arroyo SolórzanoECSECS, Federica Ghione, Vitor Silva

Seismic risk assessment is fundamental to understanding the potential damage earthquakes may cause to structures and infrastructure in specific regions. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models serve as essential tools, support the design of resilient buildings, updating national building codes, and evaluating various risk metrics. Despite the development of numerous methodologies, significant challenges remain unresolved, highlighting the need for continued research and innovation.
The session addresses advances in various components of seismic risk
assessment: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, at diverse spatial and temporal scales. The session encourages studies related to:
- The state-of-the-art in seismic hazard and risk assessment.
- Insights in characterization of seismic sources: faults and seismogenic zones.
- Advances in ground motion prediction equations: empirical and simulated attenuation models including stochastic and physic-based simulations that generate ground motions for regions with limited observational records. - The incorporation of site effects into seismic risk models.
- Recent developments in uncertainty quantification and reliability analysis. Also, strategies for managing uncertainty in decision-making processes related to seismic risk.
- Post-earthquake damage data from significant recent events to test and refine risk models.
Given the growing availability of data and technological advances, this session will
discuss present challenges and future expectations for seismic hazard and risk models.
We also encourage contributions that share lessons learned from real-world
applications of risk models in decision-making, including areas such as urban planning, resource allocation, and emergency response.