Interconnections between the components of the Antarctic climate system: a causal inference approach

Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have an important role in Earth's climate, influencing global heat balance and carbon uptake. Recent anomalies, such as drastic sea ice decline, anomalous snowfall, and unprecedented heat waves challenge our understanding of the region's climate response. Both internal (local processes) and external (influence from lower latitudes) factors have been suggested as drivers of this variability, but the relative contributions of these remain unknown due to the lack of observations as well as shortcomings in climate models. We aim to enhance the understanding of this system by making use of recent advances in causal effect estimation. Going beyond correlation, causal network reconstruction aims to detect cause-effect links and their strength from observational datasets, including satellite records and reanalysis data. For selected sectors of Antarctica, the interconnections between ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), sea ice, ocean temperature, and meridional transport of heat and water from lower latitudes are examined and causal relationships identified and quantified.