PAGER : Space Weather Prediction and Ensemble Forecasting for the 2024 Mother's Day Solar Storm

Accurate space weather forecasting is essential for mitigating the risks posed by geomagnetic storms to technological systems, particularly satellites. The PAGER project provides an advanced probabilistic framework for space weather prediction, employing state-of-the-art ensemble simulations to forecast solar wind parameters, ring current dynamics, and the radiation belt environment. By leveraging cutting-edge models, data assimilation techniques, and uncertainty quantification, PAGER produces forecasts of Kp and Hpo indeces, cold plasma density, and relativistic electron fluxes, addressing both surface charging and deep dielectric charging risks to satellite infrastructure.

In this study, we utilize the PAGER framework to simulate the 2024 Mother's Day Solar Storm. The simulation is initialized with GONG magnetogram data, which provides the boundary conditions for ensemble solar wind predictions at L1. These predictions include solar wind velocity, proton density, and magnetic field components. By comparing simulation outputs to in-situ observations from the OMNIWeb database, we assess the predictive accuracy of PAGER's ensemble forecasting capabilities. Additionally, we demonstrate the integration of these solar wind predictions with radiation belt and satellite charging models, illustrating PAGER's capacity to link solar wind dynamics with downstream effects in the Earth's magnetosphere and their impact on satellite operations.

PAGER's ensemble approach incorporates sophisticated models of magnetospheric dynamics and ring current evolution, offering critical insight into the radiation environment surrounding Earth during extreme space weather events. This study will highlight the ensemble predictions for the Mother's Day Solar Storm and demonstrate PAGER's broader capability to address uncertainty in space weather forecasting, thus enhancing our ability to protect satellite infrastructure from adverse space weather effects.