HS4.4 | Operational forecasting and warning systems for flood, water scarcity and multi-hazards: challenges and innovations
PICO
Operational forecasting and warning systems for flood, water scarcity and multi-hazards: challenges and innovations
Co-organized by NH14
Convener: Michael Cranston | Co-conveners: Lydia CumiskeyECSECS, Céline Cattoën-Gilbert, Ilias Pechlivanidis

This interactive session aims to bridge the gap between research and practice in operational forecasting, with a focus on impact-based approaches for flood, water scarcity and multiple hazards.
Operational (early) warning systems are the result of progress and innovations in the science of forecasting. New opportunities have risen in physically based modelling, AI/machine learning, coupling meteorological and hydrological forecasts, ensemble forecasting, impact-based forecasting, and real-time control. Often, the sharing of knowledge and experience about developments are limited to the particular field (e.g. flood forecasting or landslide warnings) for which the operational system is used. Increasingly, humanitarian, disaster risk management and climate adaptation practitioners are using forecasts and warning information to enable anticipatory early action that saves lives and livelihoods. It is important to understand their needs, their decision-making process and facilitate their involvement in forecasting and warning design and implementation (co-generation).

The focus of this session will be on bringing the expertise from different fields together as well as exploring differences, similarities, problems and solutions between forecasting systems for varying hazards including climate emergency. Real-world case studies of system implementations - configured at local, regional, national, continental and global scales - will be presented. An operational warning system can include, for example, monitoring of data, analysing data, making and visualizing forecasts, impact-based solutions, giving warning signals and suggesting early action and response measures.

Contributions are welcome from both scientists and practitioners who are involved in developing and using operational forecasting and/or management systems for climate and water-related hazards, such as flood, drought, tsunami, landslide, hurricane, hydropower etc. We also welcome contributions from early career practitioners and scientists, and those working in multi-disciplinary projects (e.g. EU Horizon Disaster Resilience Societies).