The introduction of epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models has been a milestone in statistical seismology. Since then, several updated versions have been introduced to include more and more refined spatial and temporal effects, such as non-stationary background rate, injection-rate driven modeling, etc.; however, while they succeed in forecasting the occurrence of small to moderate magnitude events, the abrupt strong shocks are beyond their scope; moreover, mid- and long-term forecasts are poorly informative. Agreement is growing in the scientific community that statistics and seismic-based information are not enough, and physics-based techniques supported by an interdisciplinary approach to seismic hazard are required for achieving skilful forecasts.
AIM & GOAL
This session is devoted to new research in the field of physics-based stochastic modeling of natural and induced earthquakes also with the support of integrated, multidisciplinary methods, with special attention to major events.
TOPICS
Our session is focused on new methods, integrated approaches, and analyses for
making statistical earthquake forecasts more and more skillful. Research works about the following topics are especially welcome:
- Stochastic modeling of seismic sequences (ETAS and other methods).
- Applications of geodesy for the assessment of the seismogenic potential and short- to long-term earthquake forecasting.
- Statistical characterization and physical reconstruction of paleoseismic records and long-term recurrences of large earthquakes.
- Investigation of the relationships between tectonics and large earthquakes occurrences.
- Mapping fluids flow in the brittle crust and their relationship with natural and induced seismicity.
- Modeling swarm-like seismic activity using stochastic and physics-based techniques.
- Crustal stress modeling using different methods (moment tensors, b-value …).
- Applications of moment tensors to seismic hazard and forecasting of tensorial properties of seismicity.
- Established and new techniques for statistical seismology and their impact on forecasting (declustering, relocalization of events, catalogue homogenization, …).
- Numerical simulations for large earthquake scenarios.
- Physics-enhanced AI-driven modeling of earthquake occurrence and monitoring crustal stability conditions.
- Short-term extreme-event and aftershocks forecasting.