Volcanic eruptions can destroy infrastructure, affect businesses and economies, and claim lives, thus having disastrous consequences for people, communities and countries. Some 19% of all active volcanoes host glaciers, and the eruptions of ice-clad volcanoes are amongst the most disruptive (e.g., Eyjafjallajökull) and deadliest (e.g., Nevado del Ruiz) of the past century. It is now becoming increasingly clear that effective volcano monitoring and eruption forecasting, including for ice-clad volcanoes, requires a multi-disciplinary approach. This raises the following question: can glaciers, whose dynamic behavior might reflect volcanic activity, become an additional, much needed, parameter to consider and monitor?
To answer this question, we present global scale analyses of glacier velocity and glacier elevation that demonstrate how these two parameters are affected by proximity to active volcanoes. Specifically, glaciers closer to volcanoes possess higher velocities and are restricted to higher elevations. This is likely due to increased basal melting in response to higher geothermal heat flux experienced on and near volcanoes. In particular, we propose that the enhanced melting negatively affects the glacier mass balance, confining them to higher elevations. It also lubricates the glacier bed thus making them move faster, relative to glaciers that are further from volcanoes. As volcanoes often “heat up” prior to an eruption, sometimes for years in advance, we anticipate that glacier elevation (in the longer term – e.g., years) and velocity (in the shorter term – e.g., months) might also change, thus providing two valuable new parameters to consider in volcano monitoring and eruption forecasting efforts.
How to cite: Spagnolo, M., Mallalieu, J., Unnsteinsson, T., Barr, I., Girona, T., Gomez-Patron, A., Martin, M., Pritchard, M., and Rea, B.: Can glaciers contribute to volcano monitoring and eruption forecasting?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1097, 2025.
Ice cores provide a valuable archive of volcanism in the pre-satellite era, which can be used to understand timing, hazards and climate impact of past explosive eruptions. Sulfur isotope analysis of volcanic aerosols deposited and preserved in ice cores are used to constrain plume heights, source latitudes and inform stratospheric sulfur loading, while identification and geochemical analysis of microscopic ash particles can link ice-core volcanic deposits to specific eruptive sources. These techniques have enabled researchers to identify eruptive sources and characteristics of numerous eruptions recorded in ice cores, often targeting large, explosive events associated with climate forcing or widespread ash dispersal. However, the vast majority of the ice core eruption archive is yet to be explored, and there is much to be done to utilise the record to benefit volcanology research.
An important period of large, climate-impacting volcanic eruptions occurs in the 7th Century of the Common Era. Historical eruption records are poor during this time period, but by targeting prominent sulfate and tephra deposits in Greenland ice core TUNU2013, we better constrain source parameters of three major eruptions in this century. As well as providing new insights into climate-forcing eruptions occurring in 626 and 682 CE, we identify the Newberry Pumice tephra from the Big Obsidian eruptive period of Newberry Volcano (Oregon, USA). This finding provides a new and precise ice-core chronology date for the Newberry Pumice and extends the known plume transport distance to Greenland.
These results demonstrate the wealth of data about individual volcanic eruptions that can be obtained from linking an ice-core tephra to its source, including eruption timing, plume height, tephra transportation distances, grain size and abundance. Knowledge of these characteristics is key for informing plume models which reconstruct past events where historic data is not available, and strengthen future hazard predictions. These findings demonstrate the opportunity the ice core volcanic records present to the wider volcanology community.
How to cite: Innes, H., Hutchison, W., Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., Chellman, N. J., Jensen, B. J. L., and Burke, A.: Using ice cores to constrain parameters of eruptions during the 7th Century of the Common Era: challenges and opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16918, 2025.
The Fagradalsfjall volcano erupted on March 19, 2021, marking its first eruption in nearly 781 years. During the six-month eruption period (March–September 2021), a total of 90 Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images were collected between January and December 2021. These images consisted of 60 frames from the Sentinel-1A satellite and 30 frames from the Sentinel-1B satellite, providing a short temporal baseline of approximately 6 days between interferogram pairs. The dataset was processed using an advanced time-series InSAR technique based on the Improved Combined Scatterers Interferometry with Optimized Point Scatterers (ICOPS) algorithm, which analyzed surface deformation through a combination of Persistent Scatterer (PS) and Distributed Scatterer (DS) points, collectively referred to as Combined Scatterer (CS) points. To refine the analysis, a convolutional neural network (CNN) was applied to evaluate the temporal patterns of the CS points, and the Optimized Hot Spot Analysis (OHSA) method was employed to spatially optimize these points by identifying statistically significant patterns between hot and cold points. In detail, PS points were identified using an amplitude dispersion index threshold of 0.4, in line with standard StaMPS processing procedures. For DS points, a combination of amplitude and phase information was used: the amplitude data helped detect statistically homogeneous pixels (SHPs) through a Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLR) test, while phase information enabled analysis of spatial and temporal coherence between each interferogram pair. By combining SHP detection with spatial and temporal coherence, the DS points were selected for further analysis as part of the CS point combination. To enhance displacement pattern reliability, a CNN was employed to assess consistency based on correlation coefficients. OHSA, using Getis-Ord Gi* statistics, was then applied to identify statistically significant hot spots by clustering data according to z-scores and p-values, determining the spatial significance of the deformation patterns. Finally, validation of ICOPS results against GNSS measurements around the deformation area demonstrated consistency in observed deformation patterns. The analysis revealed that deformation around the Fagradalsfjall volcano was primarily driven by magma reservoir activity associated with dike intrusion beneath the surface, which was accompanied by increased earthquake events. Seismic activity in the region was visualized through cross-sections of earthquake distributions during the deformation period, providing deeper insights into the volcanic activity.
Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (No. NRF–2023R1A2C1007742).
How to cite: Hakim, W. L., Kim, B., and Lee, C.-W.: Advanced Time-Series InSAR Analysis using ICOPS for Monitoring Surface Deformation of Fagradalsfjall Volcano during the 2021 Eruption, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2151, 2025.
Timely detection of early warning signals prior to volcanic eruptions heavily relies on remote sensing, particularly for volcanoes which are not easy to access, such as the Sunda Arc volcanoes. Girona et al. (2021) have introduced a novel method using MODIS infrared radiation data to identify a long-term, large-scale, and subtle increase in the surface temperature preceding eruptions by several months to years. This finding suggests the presence of enhanced hydrothermal activities before volcanic eruptions, complementing other monitoring data like surface deformation, gas flux, and thermal infrared hotspot. Nevertheless, when employing this methodology in volcanoes situated in regions with a variety of landuse and pronounced cloud cover, the detected surface thermal anomalies may not be controlled by volcanic activities. Our strategy involves detailed pixel labeling to improve the precise selection of pixels for background temperature, boosting volcanic thermal signal recognition.
We used MODIS cloud mask data to filter out cloudy pixels. Then, we exclude the regions that may be sensitive to climate, like water bodies and urban areas. After cleaning the data, the correlation between the surface temperature evolution and the volcanic activities becomes stronger, especially for those volcanoes with more frequent eruptions. In addition, the correlation between the thermal signal and the eruptions with significant precursors, such as surface deformation and seismic activity, is stronger than those eruptions without early warning signals. One possible explanation is that in those sealed volcanic systems, the gas is accumulated and pressurized to trigger surface displacements or seismicity. At the same time, the gas can only slowly percolate through the volcanic edifice to generate long-term, large-scale thermal anomalies.
To explain the origination of these large-scale thermal anomalies, we further built numerical models to explore a wide range of processes that can generate surface warming, including magma intrusion, intensified degassing, and redistribution of pore fluids due to rock permeability changes. The model and data support the hypothesis that within relatively “sealed/closed” volcanic systems, volcanic gases exsolved from magma reservoirs ascend to the surface via volcanic flanks, triggering extensive surface warming and uplift. The integration between the thermal data and the numerical model allows us to assess the practical viability of these adjustments, thereby deepening our comprehension of subsurface mechanisms and improving the predictive precision for forthcoming volcanic events.
How to cite: Chenyan, W. and Zhan, Y.: Detecting and Modeling Long-Term Volcanic Thermal Unrest Captured by MODIS Data Years Before Eruption, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-751, 2025.
Using numerical modelling, we study the influence of lava rheology (described by Newtonian, Bingham or Herschel-Bulkley fluids) on lava flow advancement and flow morphology. Numerical simulations were conducted using a three-dimensional fluid dynamics model as well as a depth-averaged model based on the shallow water approximation. In the case of isothermal flow models, we have shown that the increased yield strength significantly influences lava flow morphology by restricting flow advance and promoting upward growth of lava flows. In the case of temperature-dependent rheological models, the Newtonian and Bingham fluids demonstrate similar lava flow morphologies and thickness distributions. The viscosity values in both cases vary from about 102.7 – 106 Pa s across the central part of the lava flow to about 1012 Pa s near the lava flow margins. The Herschel-Bulkley model exhibits the viscosity values of 109 Pa swithin the flow and reaches the highest viscosity values, up to 1016 Pa s along the lava flow margins resulting in the shortest lava flow. We simulate the emplacement of a natural lava flow using observational data from the December 2015 eruption at Mount Etna. All thermal rheological models approximate the real lava flow width accurately, with the Newtonian model providing the best match for flow extent and developing the same morphological features as the real lava emplacement. While the Herschel-Bulkley model shows a slight deviation in the lava flow length, the Bingham model fits well the main flow branch, with minor divergence in the upper branches.
How to cite: Ismail-Zadeh, A., Zeinalova, N., and Tsepelev, I.: Influence of rheology on lava flow dynamics inferred from numerical modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5227, 2025.
In recent years, Etna's primary eruptive activity has been marked by extended sequences of lava fountain episodes. Lava fountains are explosive events involving intense jets of gas and solid particles, which significantly impact air traffic and urban areas due to ash dispersal and fallout. The development of a lava fountain at Etna typically follows a gradual progression: it begins with weak Strombolian activity, transitions to a characteristic lava jet, and culminates in the formation of a sustained eruptive column. These events generally last from several minutes to a few hours. During such eruptions, the interaction between magma and surrounding rock induces very small deformations that can be detected by a Sacks-Evertson strainmeter. This instrument measures the volumetric deformation of the surrounding rock with high resolution and across a broad frequency range. Analyzing strain data helps determine the timing of events, assess the fountain's magnitude, and estimate the volume of material erupted.
In this study, we propose a time-dependent model of shallow reservoir withdrawal, incorporating fluid dynamics within the conduit and associated pressure variations. The resulting variations of the strain field in the surrounding rocks is compared with data collected at Etna during lava fountaining episodes.
How to cite: Macedonio, G., Bonaccorso, A., Carleo, L., Costa, A., Currenti, G., and Giudicepietro, F.: Modeling the dynamics of lava fountains at Etna, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17539, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17539, 2025.
The 10 February 2022 pyroclastic avalanche at Mt. Etna represents a significant example of high-mobility granular flow occurring at basaltic volcanoes. While such phenomena are typically associated with more explosive volcanic systems, their occurrence at Etna underlines their relevance for hazard assessment in volcanic environments dominated by effusive and mildly explosive eruptions.
This study focuses on a pyroclastic avalanche triggered by the gravitational collapse of the Southeast Crater’s (SEC) during an intense lava fountaining episode. The event produced a reddish-brown deposit that extended up to 1.4 km southward, covering part of the 2002–2003 scoria cone. Stratigraphic analysis revealed four distinct units, ranging from fine ash to blocks, with variations in granulometry and thickness.
A multidisciplinary approach was applied to unravel the trigger of the avalanche, combining field surveys, granulometric and textural analyses on products collected from the deposit and remote sensing data, supported by the numerical modeling to better constrain the flow propagation dynamics. Our results highlight how these pre-collapse factors, including the elevated residual temperature and the fast accumulation of ultra-proximal pyroclastic fall deposit during the previous lava fountaining episodes, played a crucial role in enhancing the partial collapse.
The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of pyroclastic avalanche behavior in basaltic volcanic systems, offering valuable insights into the mechanisms controlling these hazardous flows in volcanic regions like Mt. Etna, where eruptions frequently interact with human activity and infrastructure.
How to cite: Zuccarello, F., Andronico, D., Behncke, B., Cappello, A., Ciancitto, F., Del Carlo, P., de’ Michieli Vitturi, M., Di Roberto, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., and Gaetana, G.: A multidisciplinary investigation of the 10 February 2022 pyroclastic avalanches at Mt. Etna, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16736, 2025.
During volcanic eruptions, a variety of metals and metalloids are emitted along with gases and particulate matter. These elements are released in trace amounts, often bound to volcanic ash, gases, and aerosols, and can be transported over long distances by wind currents. Some of the key metals and metalloids commonly found in volcanic emissions include Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Lead (Pb), Selenium (Se), Thallium (Tl), Tungsten (W), Antimony (Sb), Beryllium (Be) and Copper (Cu). These elements are of concern because several of them, such as As, Cd, Pb, and Cr, are toxic and pose significant risks to both human health and the environment. Their presence in volcanic emissions contributes to air and water pollution, with potential long-term effects on ecosystems and populations living in affected areas.
During the Tajogaite eruption (2021) at Cumbre Vieja volcano (La Palma, Canary Islands), a substantial amount of CO2 and SO2 was released into the atmosphere. Throughout this eruption observations of SO2 emissions were made using ground-based instruments, in transverse mode, as well as by numerous satellite instruments. Data from the Sentinel-5P instrument TROPOMI was combined with the PlumeTraj back-trajectory analysis toolkit to produce sub-daily SO2 fluxes that can be directly compared to the ground-based miniDOAS observations (Hayer et al., 2022). Daily OP-FTIR volcanic gas composition measurements throughout the 2021 Tajogaite eruption revealed consistently high CO2/SO2 ratios in the plume (Asensio-Ramos et al., 2025). Combined with the estimated SO2, ~1,6 Mt (Albertos et al. 2022; Esse B. et al. 2025), the total amount of CO2 emitted during the 2021 eruption was estimated to be ~28 Mt CO2 (Burton et al., 2023).
Daily aerosol samples, or particulate matter smaller than 10 microns (PM10), were collected on 150 mm quartz microfiber filters at a flow rate of 30 m3/h in the western part of La Palma Island during the Tajogaite eruption. The elemental composition of the aerosols was determined through acid digestion (HF:HClO4:HNO3) followed by analysis using ICP-MS and ICP-OES. Additionally, daily PM10 samples were collected on 47 mm quartz filters according to the UNE EN 12341:2015 standard, which outlines the standard gravimetric method for measuring the PM10 or PM2.5 mass concentration. The various metals in the samples were then analyzed in the laboratory following the UNE-EN 14902:2005 standard.
In this study, we present the estimated trace element emission rates from the Tajogaite eruption plume by combining the observed Xi/SO2 ratios in aerosols and PM10 particles (where Xi represents a trace metal) with the measured SO2 emission rate. Preliminary results of trace element emissions range from 0.04 to 14.02 t·d-1 for As, 0.05 to 7.85 t·d-1 for Cd, and 0.30 to 78.88 t·d-1 for Pb, spanning from September 29 to November 11, 2021
References
Albertos, V. T., Recio, G., Alonso, M., et al. (2022). https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5603
Asensio-Ramos, M., Pardo Cofrades, A., Burton, M. et al. (2025), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2024.122605
Burton, M., Aiuppa, A., Allard, P. et al. (2023), https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01103-x
Esse, B., Burton, M., Hayer, C. et al (2025) submitted to Bull. Volcano.
Hayer, C., Barrancos, J., Burton, M. et al. (2022), https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12201
How to cite: Pérez, N. M., Burton, M., Rodríguez, S., Vilches Sarasate, J., Hernández, P. A., Esse, B., López Darias, J., Melián, G. V., Hayer, C., de la Rosa, J., Padrón, E., and Asensio-Ramos, M.: Trace Element Emissions from the Tajogaite Eruption Plume, La Palma, Canary Islands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13986, 2025.
Since September 2021, Vulcano Island was affected by a volcanic unrest crisis with an increase in fumarolic activity at La Fossa crater, seismic activity and ground deformations. A contemporary strong increase in the soil CO2 flux was observed both at the base of La Fossa cone and in some zones of Vulcano Porto settlement. The gas hazard also increased because the massive gas plume (mainly CO2 and SO2) descended the crater rim, particularly during night, investing the resident areas. The first civil protection measures adopted to face the health risk at Vulcano Porto included the evacuation of the houses most exposed to the gas and the night time ban of all houses. The long-term gas risk reduction was then achieved with the establishment of a continuous monitoring network for air gas concentration, equipped with an alert system. Also the INGV volcanic gas monitoring network of Vulcano Porto was strengthened. An ad-hoc appointed scientific commission, chaired by DPC and composed by all national and local authorities expert of health, environmental and volcanic hazard, suggested the continuous monitoring of volcanic gases both outdoor and indoor. Two dedicated networks were then built, installed and managed by Arpa Sicilia. The outdoor Arpa network, operational since March 2022 with two mobile labs, since February 2023 includes 6 stations with continuous monitoring of air CO2, H2S and SO2 concentration of which 1 for monitoring also CO, NO2, PM, C6H6, O3 concentration. The regulatory references of the limit values and alarm thresholds are those provided for by Legislative Decree 13 August 2010, n. 155 - Implementation of Directive 2008/50/EC, as well as the values identified by the WHO global air quality guidelines and in the ISTISAN Report 16/15. The recorded monitoring data show the occasional exceeding of the outdoor thresholds for CO2, H2S and SO2. The pilot indoor network, started in December 2023, is fully operational since June 2024 and currently monitors 33 buildings selected on a voluntary basis. The alert thresholds for indoor monitoring have been identified in agreement with the Regional Department of Civil Protection and the ISS - Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Some indoor stations, located in the most critical sectors of Vulcano Porto (Faraglione and Camping Sicilia) show the recurrence of anomalous CO2 values (and sporadically of H2S), especially during night time. The anomalous degassing affecting Vulcano Porto slowly decreased returning in January 2025 to background values. In conclusion, we stress the importance of finally having a risk mitigation tool for volcanic gases at Vulcano Porto, which will allow addressing the gas hazard both in condition of ordinary degassing and in possible future unrest crises. The Vulcano Porto air gas concentration monitoring networks represent one of the few examples present on active volcanoes in Europe together with those of Sao Miguel (Azores, Portugal) and La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain).
How to cite: Carapezza, M. L., Abita, A., Antero, R., Basiricò, L., Di Gangi, F., Pampalone, V., Ranaldi, M., Tarchini, L., and Tirone, N.: The continuous monitoring network of air gas concentration at Vulcano Porto (Aeolian Island, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12609, 2025.
Surface heat transfer is a continuous process reflecting the dynamic equilibrium between the magmatic system and the surrounding rock. In volcanic systems, part of the energy transferred from magma drives fluid convection, increasing ground temperatures. Total heat transfer occurs through three primary mechanisms: conduction, convection, and radiation. Each of these mechanisms plays a distinct role in volcanic systems and requires specific detection methods. Convective heat flow is observed in fumaroles and steaming ground; moderate thermal anomalies indicate conductive heat transfer; radiative heat flow is detected via multispectral instruments measuring surface thermal anomalies.
On Vulcano Island (Italy), a continuous monitoring network has detected transient variations in heat flow released by the active cone, which are correlated with increased seismic activity and ground deformation. Contact sensors monitor temporal variations in high-temperature fumaroles, while other sensors measure heat flux variations in areas of diffuse degassing. Long-term time series data have captured several episodes of volcanic unrest (e.g., Diliberto 2021; Federico et al., 2023).
This study presents results from the integration of artificial intelligence techniques with monitoring procedures, including:
a) Ground temperature measurements via contact sensors at selected sites;
b) Fumarole extent analysis;
c) Thermal and environmental indices derived from satellite imagery.
Specifically, a Semi-Supervised Generative Adversarial Network (SGAN) model was employed to automatically classify different volcanic states (baseline activity, transient degassing, and increased degassing). The model leverages direct temperature measurements from contact sensors (installed on the ground-based network on the La Fossa cone), land surface temperature anomalies (from MODIS), the Normalized Thermal Index (from VIIRS), and environmental indices such as NDVI, NDWI, and NDMI (from Landsat 8).
Preliminary results indicate that the SGAN model achieves an accuracy exceeding 0.89 for nearly all analyzed periods.
How to cite: Spina, F., Diliberto, I. S., Bilotta, G., Dozzo, M., Nastasi, D., and Ganci, G.: Integration of Ground-Based and Satellite Data Using a Semi-Supervised GAN Model on Vulcano Island, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12193, 2025.
The island of Vulcano, part of the Aeolian Archipelago, is a significant volcanic edifice in Italy. Its active geothermal system and frequent volcanic unrest, particularly the ongoing phase, since September 2021, marked by high fumarole temperatures, changes in gas composition, ground deformation, and micro-seismicity, underscore the importance of understanding the subsurface processes driving volcanic and geothermal phenomena.
The present study, using TOUGH2 code (Pruess et al., 1999), aims to enhance our understanding of the active geothermal system of Vulcano. A highly constrained petrophysical model of the island, derived from a 3D resistivity structure obtained from a magnetotelluric (MT) survey (Di Giuseppe et al., 2023), was used to simulate heat flow and fluid flow (H2O and CO2) for the time required to reach the natural thermodynamic state of the system. The numerical modelling results were analyzed by examining the fluid distributions in terms of pressure, temperature and CO2 partial pressure. Pressure increases linearly with depth, as expected in a hydrostatic system, while temperature and CO2 partial pressure show more complex distributions. These observations are consistent with a developed heterogeneous model that incorporates structural and petrophysical data from the MT model, providing a more realistic thermodynamic representation of the Vulcano geothermal system. In particular, the simulated temperature and CO2 partial pressure distributions show a clear differentiation between the central-northern and southern parts of the island, in agreement with literature and empirical data.
These results offer new insights into the system’s behavior, significantly enhancing our understanding of its current dynamics and providing a robust foundation for predicting its future evolution. This could potentially lead to more accurate predictive models and hazard scenarios.
How to cite: Califano, C., Salone, R., Troiano, A., Di Giuseppe, M. G., Isaia, R., and Di Maio, R.: Advancing knowledge of thermo-fluid dynamic processes in Vulcano's geothermal system through numerical simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17887, 2025.
Most climate projections represent volcanic eruptions as a constant forcing based on historical averages. This constant forcing approach ignores the sporadic nature of eruptions, preventing a full quantification of uncertainties in climate projections. Here we show that the contribution of volcanic forcing uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature projections reaches up to 49%, and is comparable or greater than that from internal variability throughout the 21st century. Furthermore, compared to a constant volcanic forcing, employing a stochastic volcanic forcing (i) reduces the probability of exceeding 1.5 ºC warming above pre-industrial level by at least 5% for high climate mitigation scenario (SSP1-1.9) in this century; (ii) enhances the probability of negative decadal temperature trends by up to 8%; and (iii) increases the likelihood of short-term surface cooling and warming events. Intermediate to higher climate mitigation scenarios are particularly sensitive to the choice of volcanic forcing implementation in climate projections. Using a stochastic volcanic forcing approach also enables assessment of the associated climate risks and socio-economic impacts. We recommend improved volcanic forcing approaches for future climate model experiments.
How to cite: Chim, M. M. M., Aubry, T., Smith, C., and Schmidt, A.: Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4244, 2025.
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from volcanic activity have significant impacts on human health, society, aviation, and atmospheric composition in general. While nadir-viewing satellites have delivered decades of valuable information on the SO2 Vertical Column Density (VCD), accurate retrieval of its Layer Height (LH) remains a major challenge, yet critical to further understand volcanic events and refine estimates of SO2 emissions, which play a key role on climate. Indeed, current UV retrieval techniques often face limitations in sensitivity and computational efficiency, particularly in aerosol-rich conditions.
Here, we present an enhanced SO2 height and column density retrieval algorithm developed from the high-resolution TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). Our approach focuses on the second UV spectral band (BD2), which benefits from a strong SO2 absorption, rather than the third band (BD3) commonly used for sulfur dioxide retrievals.
Sensitivity analyses were first carried out on a set of synthetic spectra representative of TROPOMI observations with the Look-Up Table Covariance-Based Retrieval Algorithm (LUT-COBRA) [1, 2]. The impact of atmospheric, spectroscopic and observation conditions on the retrieval quality has been thoroughly studied, highlighting the considerable effect of ozone. Furthermore, results indicate that BD2 retrievals provide more accurate SO2 LHs and VCDs, with much lower retrieval errors, especially in the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTLS).
The algorithm was then applied to real TROPOMI observations of different volcanic eruptions (e.g., Ruang, Etna). In comparison to BD3 retrievals, our method leads to a better sensitivity, with less noise and a detection limit as low as 2.0 DU, outperforming the current operational TROPOMI SO2 product. Moreover, our plume height estimates align well with independent measurements from IASI, CALIOP, and OMPS-LP, confirming the reliability of our results.
[1] N. Theys et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(22):16727–16744, 2021.
[2] N. Theys et al., Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 15(16):4801–4817, 2022.
How to cite: Fabris, L., Theys, N., Clarisse, L., Franco, B., Brenot, H., Vlietinck, J., Danckaert, T., Yu, H., van Gent, J., and Van Roozendael, M.: Enhanced TROPOMI SO2 height and density retrievals applied to eruptions in 2023-2024, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8314, 2025.
Volcanic eruptions inject large amounts of particles and gases into the atmosphere. The detection of volcanic constituents is crucial to support aviation safety and to quantify their impact on human health, environment and climate. Detection of volcanic clouds represents a key input for retrieval algorithms such as VPR (Volcanic Plume Retrieval) and LUT (Look-Up Tables), which are applied to get information on particles and SO2 total mass.
The detection of volcanic clouds using satellite data is challenging, particularly in the presence of high quantities of water vapor. This latter, in combination with ash particles, can turn into water droplets and ice. This physical phenomenon supposes a limitation for the detection of volcanic clouds.
Mount Etna (Italy), between 2020 and 2022, has produced 66 lava fountain events. These events have generated volcanic clouds mixed with ash, ice and SO2, with a top height ranging between 4 and 13 km. In this work a Machine Learning-Based approach to detect the volcanic clouds generated during these Etna’s lava fountain events is carried out. The models have been trained and validated by exploiting a dataset that covers the 66 lava fountains observed by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instrument, on board of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite, aiming to get insights for the discrimination of ash, ice, and SO2 in the volcanic clouds. The results are promising for the automatic detection of volcanic clouds in near-real time.
How to cite: Naranjo, C., Guerrieri, L., Corradini, S., Merucci, L., Stelitano, D., and Picchiani, M.: Leveraging Machine Learning techniques and SEVIRI data to detect volcanic clouds composed of ash, ice, and SO2 during the 2020-2022 Etna eruption activity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10309, 2025.
How to cite: Payet--Clerc, M., Carazzo, G., Moreland, W. M., Höskuldsson, Á., Thordarson, T., and Valdimarsdottir, I. K.: Volcanic hazards associated with explosive basaltic eruptions in Iceland: A case study of the Veiðivötn 1477 CE Eruption in Central Iceland., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12005, 2025.
Posters on site: Thu, 1 May, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X2
Lava flow hazard is a significant geological threat associated with volcanic activity. Understanding and quantifying this hazard is critical to protect communities, infrastructure and the environment, especially in active volcanic areas such as Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy). In this work, we propose a new probabilistic methodology for lava flow hazard assessment on Mount Etna based on a 4,000-year eruption dataset and accurate statistical analyses. The methodology combines the probability of future vent opening, the probabilities of occurrence of individual eruption classes and the weighted combination of lava flow inundation maps. These maps are obtained using representative scenarios for each eruption class, based on statistical analyses of duration and lava volume. The results are two maps, one for flank and one for summit eruptions, that provide the probabilities that a specific area will be affected by lava flow inundation during specific time intervals. Furthermore, we present the first attempt to assess the hazard of both types of eruptions occurring on Mount Etna. These hazard maps could be fundamental tools, especially in the long term, for emergency preparedness and territorial planning, allowing to easily identify the areas where future eruptions could have a greater impact. Furthermore, they could help local authorities to manage ongoing eruptions, making targeted decisions and mitigating the associated risk.
How to cite: Cappello, A., Bilotta, G., Ganci, G., Proietti, C., and Zuccarello, F.: Updating the assessment of lava flow hazards at Etna volcano, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16737, 2025.
El Hierro, covering an area of 278 km2 is one of the eight islands that make up the Canary Islands archipelago. This oceanic island emerged approximately 1.2 million years ago and is among the most volcanically active in the region. Its most recent volcanic activity was a submarine eruption 2 km off its southern coast, lasting from October 12, 2011, to March 5, 2012. This event was significant as it marked the first eruption in the Canary Islands to be closely monitored. Since 1998, diffuse CO2 emissions across the island have been systematically measured using the accumulation chamber technique. These measurements are taken at 601 sites regularly distributed to cover the island’s surface. During periods of volcanic unrest, such as the 2011-2012 eruption, the frequency of these surveys increases. The island’s CO2 emission rates have varied over time, with the most notable increases occurring during pre-eruptive and eruptive phases (Melián et al., 2014). In the last survey, performed in the summer period of 2024, soil CO2 efflux ranged from levels below detection (<0.5 g·m-1·d-1) to a maximum of 44.0 g·m-1·d-1, with an average value of 3.0 g·m-1·d-1. The diffuse CO2 degassing rate was estimated in 699 ± 32 t·d-1. This value is slightly higher than the average background emission (412 t·d-1) but remains within the background range of 181-930 t·d-1as determined during the quiescent period from 1998 to 2010. The diffuse degassing studies carried out at El Hierro, have demonstrated that, at those volcanoes without visible volcano degassing, geochemical programs for volcano surveillance should be focused on diffuse degassing monitoring even if only low soil CO2 efflux measurements are recorded (Pérez et al., 2012). The regular monitoring of diffuse CO2 emissions has proven to be a valuable tool for detecting early signs of volcanic unrest, especially on islands like El Hierro, where visible gas emissions are not present.
Melián et al., (2014), doi:10.1002/2014JB011013.
Pérez et al., (2012), doi:10.1029/2012GL052410.
How to cite: Di Nardo, D., Fernández, A., Hernández, P., Padrón, E., V. Melián, G., D. Padilla, G., M. Pérez, N., Asensio-Ramos, M., and Hernández, P. A.: More than Two Decades of Geochemical Surveillance on El Hierro, an Oceanic Volcanic Island in the Canary Islands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10458, 2025.
During the last twenty years the most active crater on Etna has been the South-East crater (SEC), which since 2011 has erupted over 100 lava fountains. These events are characterized by violent explosive activity lasting an average of few hours. In addition to this type of explosive events, the SEC has also produced several effusive events, i.e. activity with emission of lava flows beyond the crater rim with a short duration but longer than that of the lava fountains, usually lasting from days (effusive pulses) to tens of days (more prolonged effusive phases). Considering the high frequency of occurrence of these eruptive events, it becomes strategic to be able to quantify the erupted volumes in real time.
All these types of events from the open conduit SEC usually produce small deformations (≤1 microstrain) that can be detected by the high-precision borehole dilatometers as the ones installed at Etna. Recently, for the lava fountain episodes, by comparing volumetric strain changes with volumes derived from the analysis of digital surface models generated from optical satellite imagery, it was found a linear law able to determine the volume estimates from the recorded strain changes. This aspect is crucial to provide in real-time a robust characterization of the eruptions. With the aim of producing useful tools to be used in real-time, in this study we investigated the erupted volumes measured by the SEVIRI multi-spectral satellite sensor at 15 minutes of sampling time and their relationship with the strain recorded also for the effusive-type activity of the SEC for both effusive pulses and more prolonged effusive phases.
How to cite: Bonaccorso, A., Aloisi, M., Bilotta, G., Cappello, A., Carleo, L., Currenti, G., and Ganci, G.: Investigation on summit effusive activity from Etna SEC crater by relating erupted volumes estimated by multi-spectral satellite data and volcano strain response., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12653, 2025.
Once the Tajogaite eruption was over in December 13, 2021, INVOLCAN continued monitoring visible volcanic emanations. To do so, active in situ/remote monitoring techniques were undertaken based on different methodologies: direct sampling, alkaline traps, Multi-GAS and miniDOAS. These methods are suitable tools to provide as much information as possible on the emitted volcanic gases. Direct volcanic gas sampling was performed at two volcanic degassing sites, F1 and F2, by collecting samples burying a glass funnel at the sampling point and using TEDLAR bags for later chemical (CO2, H2, H2, H2S and CH4) and isotopic (δ13C-CO2) analysis. The temperature of F1 and F2 was always measured at each sampling. Three alkaline traps were installed to monitor the chemical composition of acid gases in the crater's atmosphere Traps are made of polythene containers and protected by a metal mesh and a PVC container to prevent contamination by rainwater and installed at a one meter height. The alkaline solution (KOH, 2N) was used to absorb acid gases. Multi-GAS was used to analyze in real-time visible emanations during the year 2024. This instrument comprises an infra-red spectrometer for CO2 and 2 electrochemical sensors for SO2 and H2S. Regarding miniDOAS, we carried out UAV-mounted and ground-based miniDOAS measurements.
F1 site showed the highest temperature, with a maximum of 613ºC and an average of 455ºC, while F2 showed a maximum of 409ºC and an average of 266ºC. CO2, He, H2, CH4 and H2S concentrations for both degassing vents varied between 0.04-31 mol.%, 4.9-40.8 ppm, 0.3-5,400 ppm, 0-6.2 ppm and 0-4,792 ppm, respectively, with H2S being detected only during December 2021 and January 2022. The temporal evolution of the He/CO2 molar ratio shows a continuous decrease throughout the study period (Dec 2021-Sep 2024) indicating an impoverishment of the magmatic component. δ13C-CO2 showed a clear trend in both fumaroles towards lighter values, what was interpreted to be caused by stronger biogenic and air contribution. It should be noted that time series of C/S molar ratio measured with the alkaline traps during the first year showed a significant increase, also suggesting a decrease in the magmatic fraction of volcanic gases. Regardless of the degree of atmospheric contamination, MULTIGAS measurements revealed an increasing trend on CO2/SO2 molar ratios ranging 8.7-772, with SO2 as the major S species. Finally, around 80 SO2 miniDOAS measurements were made between December 15, 2021, and December 17, 2022 (Rodríguez et al., 2023). SO2 emission rates ranged between 17 and 670 t/d, with a clear decreasing trend observed during this period. These relatively low SO2 emissions observed during the post-eruptive phase of the Tajogaite eruption appear to be clearly related to the cooling processes of the surface magma within the Tajogaite volcanic edifice. These results show that measuring the changes of visible volcanic degassing improves monitoring of Tajogaite volcano.
Rodríguez et al. 2023. EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, EGU23-3620
How to cite: Hernández, P. A., Asensio-Ramos, M., Álvarez, A., Melian, G. V., Gironés, A., Cartaya, S., Arencibia, M., Taño, D., Trujillo, L., Ramos, C., Padilla, G., Di Nardo, D., Padrón, E., and Pérez, N. M.: Post-eruptive monitoring of visible volcanic degassing from Tajogaite volcano, La Palma, Canary Islands , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13248, 2025.
The role of ground based infrared remote sensing in volcano monitoring increases during the years thanks to cost-cutting of this type of instrument and improvement of sensors.
A single board computer and three cameras make up the central part of VIRSO2, a low cost remote sensing instrument in use at INGV. One camera acquires in the visible bands, the other two in the thermal infrared bands (8-14 μm).
Using a filter in front of it, one of two broadband TIR cameras is narrow at 8.7 μm, allowing to detect SO2 gas and volcanic ash plume. The simultaneous use of the three cameras permits to study the geometry of the plume and retrieve the physical parameters.
During these years, using the VIRSO2 camera, the eruptive (Etna, 1 April 2021), strombolian (Stromboli, May 2023) and degassing (Etna, August 2024; Popocatépetl, February 2023; Sabancaya, November 2022) volcanic different activities were investigated on the field by the INGV remote sensing group.
Turbulent fields, as the volcanic plumes, are the perfect application of the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). The POD technique generates a field decomposition into eigenfunctions and their temporal coefficients.
Reduced orthonormal basis generated using POD approximate thermal image fields acquired from cameras. Using this technique we aim to identify and characterize the different dynamical regimes and patterns acting on the emitted volcanic plume.
Here the spatial and temporal volcanic plume dynamics are preliminarily investigated applying the proper orthogonal decomposition to the ground based measurement acquired using the VIRSO2 camera.
How to cite: Stelitano, D., Carbone, V., Corradini, S., Lepreti, F., Guerrieri, L., Capparelli, V., Primavera, L., Merucci, L., and Naranjo, C.: Thermal infrared and visible ground camera images decomposed using the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13834, 2025.
Popocatepetl volcano is one of the most important threats to the safety of the population of Mexico City and some other important cities in Central Mexico. Monitoring volcanic hazards from this volcano aims to provide civil protection authorities with tools to prevent and mitigate the associated risks to its activity. The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) conducts surveillance to reduce the risks associated with eruptive activity, particularly, one of the tools used to monitoring ash emissions in real-time is a Doppler radar. This radar is located 11 km North to the volcano at ~4000 masl inside the Iztaccihuatl-Popocatepetl National Park. For the last few years we have collected data of the ash emissions and we already have 8 Tb of raw data that soon will be publicly available. This tool has allowed us to detect activity that otherwise is difficult or even impossible to detect due to meteorological conditions with a delay of less than 5 minutes. For instance, during the eruptive activity of May, 2023, the use of the radar was crucial to alert the National Center for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED) about the ash emissions direction during a small crisis of the volcano and eventually the authorities decided to close Mexico City’s main airport. Almost all those days were clear enough to see the volcano through webcams, but one weekend was very cloudy, and the wind direction changed during the night and headed to Mexico’s most important airport. Thanks to the use of the radar, we were able to alert the authorities and finally the airport was closed for a few hours. In this presentation we provided further information about the data, the methods used to process the data and the general operation of the radar.
How to cite: Tellez-Ugalde, E. B., Delgado-Granados, H., Sánchez-Tafoya, E., and Fernández-Pineda, A.: Doppler radar to monitoring ash of Popocatepetl volcano, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14288, 2025.
Tenerife (2,034 km²), the largest of the Canary Islands, hosts three active volcanic rift zones (RZ), including the North-South (NSRZ; 325 km²). Characterized predominantly by effusive basaltic activity, the NSRZ comprises 139 monogenetic cones, representing the island’s most active volcanic system over the last 1 million years. To monitor potential changes in volcanic activity, 11 diffuse CO₂ emission surveys have been conducted since 2002 until 2024. Each survey involves 600 sampling sites where soil CO₂ efflux is measured following the accumulation chamber method, whereas soil gas samples are collected at 40 cm depth for chemical and isotopic analysis.
During 2024 survey, soil CO₂ efflux values ranged from undetectable levels (∼0.5 g·m⁻²·d⁻¹) to 23 g·m⁻²·d⁻¹, with an average efflux of 1.3 g·m⁻²·d⁻¹. A Sinclair graphical analysis categorized the data into three geochemical populations: a background population (98% of the data) with a mean efflux of 0.8 g·m⁻²·d⁻¹ and a peak population (0.1% of the data) averaging 19.9 g·m⁻²·d⁻¹. Sequential Gaussian simulation estimated diffuse CO₂ emission rate in 2024 from the studied area in 279 ± 11 t·d⁻¹, value lower than the range 466 - 819 t·d⁻¹ measured from 2002 to 2023, and peaking at 707 t·d⁻¹ in 2015.
Inspection of diffuse CO₂ emissions rate time series suggests a relationship with seismic activity in and around Tenerife, particularly from late 2016 onward. This observation emphasizes the usefulness of soil CO₂ efflux surveys in areas lacking visible degassing phenomena. The integration of geochemical data with geophysical observations enhances volcanic monitoring assessment, improves risk management, and strengthens early-warning systems. This study underlines the importance of discrete geochemical monitoring for understanding the dynamics of the NSRZ, offering critical insights to mitigate the impacts of potential volcanic threats on Tenerife.
How to cite: de los Ríos Díaz, H., James, D., Méndez Pérez, C., Hernández Fuentes, P., Cano Ballesteros, A., Siverio Rodríguez, J., Fernández Calvo, A., García Luis, P., Vidaña Glauser, A. E., Asensio-Ramos, M., Melián, G. V., Hernández, P. A., and Pérez, N. M.: Diffuse CO2 degassing surveys for geochemical monitoring of the Tenerife North–South Rift Zone (NSRZ) volcano (Canary Islands) from 2002 – 2024., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16354, 2025.
We present our findings on the correlation between the CO₂/SO₂ molar ratio of volcanic gas in the plume and the hourly frequency of Strombolian explosions recorded at Stromboli from April to December 2024. Throughout this period, the two time series exhibited alternating weeks-long phases of synchronous variations and periods of decoupling, where one signal would increase while the other remained constant. In general, periods of high CO₂/SO₂ ratios were associated with an increased frequency of explosions. In the period preceding the paroxysm that occurred on 11 July 2024, the CO₂/SO₂ ratios experienced a sharp decline, coinciding with a rise in explosion frequency until June 28, when a lava overflow occurred, after which the frequency decreased rapidly. Following the paroxysm, we observed a gradual increase in the CO₂/SO₂ ratio through the end of December, along with a moderate increase in explosion frequency, albeit with similar fluctuations. It is known that the volcanic gases causing the explosions originate from deeper magmatic sources that exhibit a higher CO₂ content. The observed relationship between the variation in gas composition and the frequency of explosion suggests a potential causal relationship; nevertheless, the exact mechanisms underlying this association have yet to be comprehensively delineated. Long-term time series data and additional research are essential for a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the CO₂/SO₂ ratio and explosion frequency, as well as their links to volcanic processes and eruption forecasting. These findings enhance our understanding of Stromboli's degassing dynamics, the interplay between gas compositions and eruption frequency, and the styles of volcanic activity. They also underscore the importance of real-time monitoring of plume gas emissions to improve our understanding of magmatic dynamics at Stromboli and other basaltic volcanic systems.
How to cite: Battaglia, A., Tamburello, G., Liuzzo, M., Bitetto, M., Grassa, F., Giuffrida, G., Messina, G., Mastrolia, A., Cristaldi, A., and Andronico, D.: Relationship between Gas Ratios and Eruption Styles: Real-Time Monitoring at Stromboli Volcano, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8586, 2025.
Volcanic eruptions are potentially catastrophic phenomena that could have a huge impact on the environment and society. Effusive eruptions can generate large lava flow fields reaching great distances from the main vent, expanding along a volcano flank by developing channels and structures whose shape and extension depend on magma properties (e.g. viscosity, density and composition), topographic features of the ground (slope and roughness), effusion rate and emplacement duration. The formation of lava tubes is one of the main causes which determine the further maximum extension of a lava flow. The development of a stable crust around a moving lava, caused by cooling, significantly decreases the exchange of heat between lava and the atmosphere. This phenomenon is extremely significant in the case of volcanoes producing voluminous lava effusions and characterized by a steady effusion rate (e.g. Hawaii and Etna), but it was described also in explosive volcanoes with a low rate of lava flow production (e.g. Vesuvius). Previous studies focused on qualitatively describing the development of lava tubes in lava flow fields, but only few works examined quantitatively the physical process of lava tube formation. The project TUBES (undersTanding lava tUBe formation and preservation) is focused on a detailed volcanological, petrological, physical (e.g. rheological) analysis, structural analysis (e.g. guided wave analysis, acoustic emission testing) and numerical modeling of the effusive phase of Vesuvius and Etna, focusing on understanding the mechanisms behind the formation of lava tubes, expanding our knowledge about the processes at the basis of lava flow emplacement providing vital information for volcanic hazard and risk assessment on such highly urbanized volcanic areas. Moreover the results of our studies, and especially on the connection between surface lava flow morphology and lava tube size, might help discover more tubes both on Earth and other planets and improve cosmic exploration.
How to cite: Morgavi, D., Calvari, S., Barile, C., Lemaire, T., Petrosino, P., Di Martire, D., Valente, E., Repola, L., Spampinato, L., Miraglia, L., Macedonio, G., Giudicepietro, F., Pappalettera, G., and katamba Mpoyi, D.: TUBES: a multidisciplinary project for understanding lava tube formation and preservation at Vesuvius and Etna. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13496, 2025.
Many volcanoes worldwide remain dormant, exhibiting mild to weak hydrothermal fuming activity. Detecting early signs of reactivation, particularly for those volcanoes near densely populated or touristic areas, presents a significant challenge in volcanology. Periods of unrest often involve complex interactions between magmatic and hydrothermal systems, obscuring clear eruption precursors.
In mid-September 2021, Vulcano Island, Italy, experienced significant degassing episodes at the La Fossa cone. Despite the unrest, no phreatic or phreatomagmatic eruptions occurred. This makes Volcano an ideal case study for applying advanced machine learning techniques to enhance the accuracy and timeliness of unrest detection and to understand the factors that prevented an eruption. This study aims to develop and evaluate machine learning models for detecting signs of volcanic unrest using seismic data.
Our approach utilizes continuously recorded seismic data to capture the intricate precursors to volcanic eruptions. We explore various machine learning approaches, including supervised and unsupervised methods, to identify patterns and correlations indicative of volcanic unrest. These models undergo training and validation using historical data on Vulcano Island, ensuring their applicability in real-time monitoring scenarios.
This study aims to improve the detection of volcanic unrest on Vulcano Island and our understanding of the precursors to eruptions, including the conditions that may inhibit eruption despite significant unrest.
How to cite: Cannavo', F., Lo Bue, R., and Carthy, J.: Unrest Detection Using Machine Learning Techniques on Seismic Data: A Case Study of Vulcano Island, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17660, 2025.
Posters virtual: Tue, 29 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 1
EGU25-11968 | Posters virtual | VPS22
Investigations on the shallow submarine CO2 emissions around the Island of Vulcano (Italy)Tue, 29 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP1.10
Natural CO2 emissions play a crucial role in understanding global CO2 budget estimates. Consequently, numerous studies have focused on CO2 emissions across various regions worldwide. However, the majority of these investigations have concentrated on terrestrial CO2 emissions, with relatively fewer studies exploring submarine CO2 emissions. Moreover, almost all the studies have focused on areas with significant hydrothermal activity, particularly those along Mid-Oceanic Ridges, while shallow-water hydrothermal vents have received comparatively little attention. Furthermore, diffuse submarine gas emissions, lacking or with little visible surface evidence, remain largely unexplored. This study investigates the CO2 emissions in the shallow submarine environment around the coast of the Island of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) by measuring dissolved CO2 concentrations. Vulcano, has been characterized by an intense hydrothermal activity since its last eruption from La Fossa cone (1888-1890). Vulcano features several fumarole fields, including one on the northern crater rim of La Fossa cone and another near the sea in the northeastern sector. Additionally, significant soil CO2 degassing occurs across the volcanic edifice. In the Vulcano Porto area, numerous thermal wells discharge fluids with temperatures reaching up to 80 °C. Submarine emission areas are visible, at shallow depths, close to the beaches in the southern and northeastern sectors. Measurements of dissolved CO2 concentrations were conducted along seashores and rocky coastlines and in sites encompassing both visible and non-visible emissions. In the northeastern sector, measurements focused on the area between the Vulcanello peninsula and the northern slopes of the volcanic cone. The northernmost section of this area, extending to the Faraglione cone, is widely recognized in the literature as Baia di Levante (BL), a well-documented site of significant CO₂-dominant hydrothermal fluids discharge, trough submarine vents placed on the seafloor, at shallow depth, near the shoreline. In this area, we performed measurements along the beach at depth of about 50 cm below sea surface. The measured values remain elevated throughout the entire profile, consistently surpassing those of seawater in equilibrium with the atmosphere (ASSW). Concentrations peaked near visible bubbling zones, with concentration values that exceeded the 20%. Moving southward, between the port dock and the crater slopes, measurements were conducted both close to the coastline and approximately 30 meters off the coast. In this area, sporadic bubble emissions from the seafloor were observed and the concentration of dissolved CO2 decreases significantly compared to the BL area. However, the dissolved CO2 concentration remain elevated, above those expected for ASSW. Along the eastern coast, measurements were performed in two selected sites along the rocky coastlines. Anomalous dissolved CO2 concentrations, reaching up to 1400 ppm, were recorded also in these areas. In the southern sector, measurements were taken along Gelso beach. CO2 concentrations were consistently high along the entire beach profile. The results indicate that submarine CO2 emissions are not confined to areas with visible surface evidence, but also occur in areas with minimal or no-visible hydrothermal activity.
How to cite: De Gregorio, S., Camarda, M., Cappuzzo, S., Francofonte, V., and Pisciotta, A.: Investigations on the shallow submarine CO2 emissions around the Island of Vulcano (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11968, 2025.
EGU25-20022 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS22
Etna volcano monitoring by remote sensing systemsTue, 29 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP1.11
The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) is in charge to monitor Mt. Etna (Catania, Italy), one of the most active volcanoes in Europe. Its activity is characterised by mild strombolian to powerful lava fountains. Monitoring active volcanoes is fundamental to reduce the volcanic hazard, in particular in dense populated areas as it is the case for the Mt. Etna [1]. The combination of different remote sensing systems can improve the analysis of Etna volcanic activity and give a more reliable quantification of volcanic source parameters as the Cloud Height, Mass Eruption Rate, Fine ash Mass and Particle Size. Volcanic source parameters are used as input parameters by volcanic ash transport and dispersal model. A more accurate estimate of these parameters reduces the uncertainty of numerical dispersal model simulations. The data used for this study come from different sources: The VIVOTEK IP8172P is a visible camera located in Catania. The second is a Thermal-Infrared camera located in Nicolosi that collects images (320 x 240 pixels) at few meters resolution [2] [3]. The third instrument is a X-band (9.6 GHz) polarimetric weather radar located nearby the International Airport Vincenzo Bellini (Catania). The fourth is the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager onboard the Meteosat Second Generation Geostationary Satellite [4]. Through the use of complementary remote sensing systems, we aim at improving our understating of explosive phenomena at Etna volcano.
[1] Bonadonna, C., Folch, A., Loughlin, S., & Puempel, H. (2012). Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first iavcei-wmo workshop on ash dispersal forecast and civil aviation. Bulletin of volcanology, 74 , 1–10.
[2] S. Scollo, M. Prestifilippo, E. Pecora, S. Corradini, L. Merucci, G. Spata, et al., "Eruption column height estimation of the 2011–2013 Etna lava fountains", Ann. Geophys., pp. 57, 2014.
[3] S. Calvari, G.G. Salerno, L. Spampinato, M. Gouhier, A. La Spina, E. Pecora, et al., "An unloading foam model to constrain Etna’s 11–13 January 2011 lava fountaining episode", J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, vol. 116, pp. B11207, 2011.
[4] S. Scollo, M. Prestifilippo, C. Bonadonna, R. Cioni, S. Corradini, W. Degruyter, et al., "Near-Real-Time Tephra Fallout Assessment at Mt. Etna Italy", Remote Sens., vol. 11, pp. 2987, 2019.
How to cite: Romeo, F., Mereu, L., Prestifilippo, M., and Scollo, S.: Etna volcano monitoring by remote sensing systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20022, 2025.
