Climate Response to Tambora-Scale Volcanic Eruptions Under Present and Future Climate Conditions

We quantify climate effects of Tambora-scale eruptions under current and future warming using the SOCOL-MPIOM coupled atmosphere-chemistry-ocean model for 2020, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 (2080) scenarios.

Global cooling amplifies counterintuitively with background warming: SSP3-7.0 shows 44% stronger cooling than present-day due to polar vortex intensification increasing from 5.5% to 44.5%. Regional responses reveal complex patterns: winter exhibits Arctic warming (+0.4-0.6°C) simultaneous with tropical cooling (up to -8°C) and continental extremes (up to +15°C). Summer brings widespread continental cooling (-2 to -4°C). Monsoon systems weaken by 20-35% while mid-latitude winter precipitation intensifies by 20-40%.

Results demonstrate that volcanic impacts under anthropogenic warming generate spatially heterogeneous extremes rather than uniform cooling, critical for agricultural and water resource risk assessment.