Exploring ecosystem-based adaptation under climate change in different European forests

Sustainable forest management and ecosystem-based adaptation are essential for maintaining ecosystem service (ES) functionality under climate change. We apply the spatially explicit, process-based dynamic model LandClim, which incorporates the effects of major natural disturbances (e.g., wind, fire and bark beetle outbreaks), to assess how different climate change scenarios (e.g., RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and forest management strategies influence the future provision of ecosystem services in multiple and climatically as well as ecologically different European forests. Simulations are initialized using detailed forest inventory data. The study is conducted across six European Living Labs, where simulation scenarios and management strategies are co-developed in close collaboration with local stakeholders. We investigate how alternative management strategies can balance ecosystem service provision as forest dynamics evolve under changing climatic conditions. Natural disturbances and their shifting regimes are explicitly accounted for in the analysis. This study supports the development of more resilient forest management strategies, enhancing the sustainability of ES provision and facilitating adaptation to climate change.