The CLIMB-FOREST Horizon Europe project (101059888) addresses a need to strengthen the role of European forests in mitigating climate change while maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services and old-growth forests. By integrating empirical data, advanced modelling and a multi-actor approach, CLIMB-FOREST generates science-based socio-economic pathways for future climate-smart forest management across Europe.

WP1: Mapping Current Forests and Management Patterns
The first work package provides a pan-European mapping of forest status and managament, and specific fieldwork within primary forests. We produced pan-European forest age, structure, carbon storage and management regimes from national forest inventory data. Through paired site comparisons of primary and managed forests, the project quantifies how forestry practices influence carbon sequestration. These maps form the empirical backbone for later modelling and scenario analyses.

WP2: Process Understanding at Field Sites
CLIMB-FOREST quantifies biogeochemical and biophysical processes at long-term monitoring sites across climatic gradients in Europe. Using field measurements and satellite observations, WP2 assesses carbon uptake, disturbance responses, and other climate-relevant processes in forest ecosystems including short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). A database of over 80 contributing sites, with linked carbon stocks and ecosystem function data improves the understanding of forest climate effects.

WP3: Bioeconomy and Wood Product Preferences
WP3 explores the socio-economic dimensions of forest-based mitigation. This work package quantifies the role of forest products, especially long-lived ones in climate mitigation and for the bioeconomy. Interviews and surveys with forest owners, industry actors and end-users capture preferences, perceived barriers, and incentives for adopting alternative wood products and management practices.

WP4: Pan-European Integrated Modelling
WP4 brings together data from WP1 – WP3 and management recommendations from WP5 into advanced, integrated modelling frameworks. These models simulate different management and socio-economic pathway scenarios for the future, and simulate how climate, associated disturbances and management alternatives in each pathway influence biodiversity and forest states and function over the whole of Europe, as well as trade-offs between targeted policies and desired environmental benefits.

WP5: Stakeholder Engagement and Adaptation
This work package actively engages with forest owners, wood industries and civil society through field visits and workshops in representative forest regions. Stakeholders identify and refine optimal management strategies that enhance resilience to climate change while delivering biodiversity and ecosystem services. These participatory activities ensure that project outputs are grounded in real-world needs and concrete adaptation.

We are 3 years into the project, and well on the way to provide suggestions for forest management pathways in Europe that are scientifically sound, sustainable and climate-mitigating. The modelling outcomes already point to a clear trade-off between high volume of timber produced in highly productive and greenhouse gas intensive socio-economic scenarios and more environmentally sustainable scenarios.

How to cite: Kristensson, A., Ahlström, A., Ruiz-Benito, P., Lange, H., Rounsevell, M., Solberg, S., and Miller, P.: Introduction to the CLIMB-FOREST project: Climate Mitigation and Bioeconomy Pathways for Sustainable Forestry, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12332, 2026.

Forests are increasingly exposed to extreme events and disturbances like droughts, storms, fires, pathogens, and others. At the same time, forests are expected to act as important carbon sinks with the corresponding climate change mitigation capacity. What are the links between forest structure and ecosystem functional properties and the resilience against disturbances and extreme events? What are the options for forest management in this context?

Using data from flux towers and field experiments from 90 sites in 16 countries, mostly in Europe, and remote sensing observations, we investigate the role of forest structure as buffer of climate extremes; link light-use efficiency to stand characteristics and management; elucidate the role of climate effects of short-lived climate forcers and their feedback due to a warming climate, stress and disturbances, and evaluate the impact of extreme drought, fire disturbances and forest management on soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen dynamics.

Combining GAMs with bootstrap-based variable importance analysis, we could show that there are associations between the means of selected Ecosystem Functional Properties of boreal and temperate forests, like photosynthetic capacity (NEPsat) or underlying water-use efficiency (uWUE), and structural complexity metrics, like Leaf Area Index or Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation. With increasing drought stress, higher canopies, LAI and species number stabilizes the forest response both for NEPsat and uWUE.

Work on entangling the climate effects of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) is progressing with measurements of terpene concentrations and emissions and aerosol particle dynamics process modelling. Model evaluation of the climate effect from afforestation in the Nordic countries with coniferous trees on previous grassland shows that the climate cooling effect of increased terpene emissions and aerosol formation outweighs the warming effect due to the filtering of aerosol particles by trees.

Field experiments on Spanish sites indicate that drought (induced through precipitation exclusion) significantly reduces the litter decomposition rate, and that thinning increases SOC content; however, differences in SOC between management regimes are often masked by high spatial variability.

The work presented has emerged within the Work Package “Data assessment of processes and their impacts on biodiversity and climate effects on forests” of the CLIMB-FOREST H2020 EU project.

How to cite: Lange, H., Bäck, J., Hildebrandt, A., Holst, T., Jocher, G., Kelly, J., Kljun, N., Klosterhalfen, A., Knohl, A., Kowalska, N., Kristensson, A., Morcillo, L., Sauras-Yera, T., Schacherl, T. P., and Vilagrosa, A.: How Forest Structure and Management Impact on Forest Behavior, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-7060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-7060, 2026.

Disturbances such as extreme drought stress are becoming more frequent globally and pose a critical threat to boreal and temperate forests. Forest resistance to disturbances is influenced by multiple factors, including soil, climate, and structural complexity. Since a substantial portion of ecosystem functioning variability is related to maximum ecosystem productivity and water-use strategies, as part of WP2 of the CLIMB-FOREST EU project we calculated ecosystem functional properties (EFPs) that reflect these processes. Specifically, we used eddy covariance flux data to quantify photosynthetic capacity (NEP_sat), underlying water-use efficiency (uWUE), and evaporative fraction (E_Frac) for 71 forest sites across boreal and temperate regions of Europe and North America. To describe functional stability, we analyzed both mean EFPs and their inter-annual variability for each site. To examine which scales of structural complexity are associated with EFP stability, we used satellite-based indices describing vegetation structure and heterogeneity, including Rao’s Q of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI_Rao), normalized near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRvN), near-infrared entropy (NIR_ent), and maximum leaf area index (LAI). We applied generalized additive models (GAMs) combined with bootstrap-based variable importance analysis to evaluate associations between EFPs and structural complexity.

We found that associations between EFPs and structural complexity metrics varied among ecosystem properties, with predictors more frequently meeting bootstrap-based importance criteria for mean EFPs than for their inter-annual variability. Maximum LAI and NIRvN were consistently retained as important predictors for mean NEP_sat and mean E_Frac, whereas no structural complexity metrics met the importance criteria for uWUE or for most variability metrics. Smooth-term estimates indicated directional partial associations, with higher LAI and NIRvN corresponding to higher modelled values of NEP_sat and E_Frac, while EVI_Rao and NIR_ent showed weaker or inconsistent partial trends. Overall, the results suggest that quantity of leaves and their spatial arrangement might be more important for EFPs than horizontal heterogeneity. Forests with denser and more organized canopies tended to function at higher levels of productivity and evaporation, without showing stronger inter-annual variability. 

How to cite: Schacherl, T., Kelly, J., Kljun, N., Knohl, A., Lange, H., and Klosterhalfen, A.: Influence of different scales of forest structural complexity on ecosystem stability, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12135, 2026.

With the intensification of climate change and anthropogenic activities, water scarcity and drought have become critical challenges around the world, threatening various ecosystems, particularly forests. Forests are social-ecological systems that provide numerous services to humans, who, in return, alter them. While it is impossible to prevent droughts, understanding the attributes of forests, particularly their resilience, may facilitate the mitigation of drought-related adverse consequences. Resilience is a multifaceted concept that has been interpreted through various lenses in the literature, with engineering resilience emphasizing system recovery, ecological resilience investigating the adaptive capacity of forests, and social-ecological resilience highlighting the interconnectedness of human and natural systems in resilience assessment.

Building on these conceptual foundations, seven principles of resilience, maintaining diversity and redundancy (P1), managing connectivity (P2), managing slow variables and feedback (P3), fostering complex adaptive system thinking (P4), encouraging learning and experimentation (P5), broadening participation (P6), and promoting polycentric governance (P7) offer a comprehensive approach to building, evaluating, and enhancing resilience. This review aims to investigate the extent to which resilience principles have been integrated into the discourse of forest resilience to drought in the literature.

Searching the Web of Science database for studies on forest resilience from 1998 to 2024 resulted in 47 papers. Among the reviewed studies, 51% investigated resilience through the lens of ecological resilience, 30% utilized the social-ecological concept, and 19% employed engineering resilience. P4 is frequently examined using tree ring data and drought severity indices (e.g., SPEI). Species richness and composition have often been considered to evaluate P1. A close examination of the methodologies of the reviewed studies revealed that 34% are evidence-based or conceptual studies aimed at understanding the mechanisms contributing to resilience, and 21% are experimental and field studies, which often involve the use of collected field data, such as tree ring width, vegetation growth rate, to explore the response of forest systems to natural or experimentally induced drought events.

The limited use of modeling, specifically landscape or ecosystem services models, in studying forest resilience to drought is evident, with only three studies conducted on this topic. Furthermore, the case studies are nearly evenly distributed across Africa, Europe, North America, and Asia, with 7, 10, 10, and 8 studies, respectively. Four studies investigated the resilience of forests in South America, and another four focused on a global scale. A closer exploration of the reviewed studies revealed that no studies have attempted to consider all seven resilience principles jointly, highlighting a significant research gap in this area and emphasizing the need for more studies to tackle the intricate relationships between ecosystems and human communities and societies.

How to cite: Anamaghi, S., Behboudian, M., and Kalantari, Z.: Understanding Forest Resilience to Drought through Resilience Principles, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18800, 2026.

Forests are currently estimated to store 861 GtC globally, and have absorbed nearly 200 GtC over the past 150 years, half of all fossil fuel emissions. Their essential role in the terrestrial carbon cycle makes forests central to climate mitigation. For example, through maintaining natural carbon stores, replacing fossil carbon-based building materials with timber-based materials, and bio-energy production without or with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). Debates around forest-based bio-energy are highly contentious and often lack a systems perspective, omitting crucial processes required for holistic analysis of climate-relevant impacts. A systems perspective enables to quantify when and where, and the bounding conditions for carbon neutrality, moving towards transient and uncertainty-aware rather than static calculations of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. By using a systems perspective, a better understanding will better define and constrain the fate of carbon. Three fundamental debates surround forest-based bio-energy:

•  Is wood harvesting carbon-neutral A simple question, but the answer depends on the definition of carbon-neutrality used. We reviewed the literature to seven definitions, herein we focus on: i) IPCC: Harvesting counts as carbon loss, and there is an assumption that burning wood is carbon-neutral; further carbon credits and debts should be linked to the carbon cycle, ii) Carbon payback: Emissions must be reabsorbed by new growth, and assume to take 40 years.
• What are the uncertainties associated with predictions of forest climate mitigation potential? Earth observations and models have shown that the is slowing down, and sinks have reversed to sources. Causes are multiple, including heat waves, droughts, fires and disease. Old growth forests’ role has become clarified, with increasing evidence that they continue to take up carbon, especially under carbon and nitrogen fertilization. Yet, effectivity of bio-energy options should consider both the role of old growth forests and the slow carbon cycle, failing to re-introduce carbon back over decadal to centennial timeframes.
• What are the land area requirements of forest-based energy demands?. Globally, only 3% of our current forests are plantations, an area far from that needed to meet energy needs. Plantation forests have limited potential for climate mitigation due to their assimilation rates, harvesting regimes, and heightened fire risk, among others. Multiple future scenarios use abondoned land for expanding energy crops, yet without an examination of the efficiency of photosynthesis versus that of photovoltaic solar panels (0.1% versus 20%).

With our systems perspective, we compare the carbon balance between forests that are managed for bioenergy and that of forests that remain intact. In this presentation we only focus on carbon with a focus on residual flows. Our results question if the promotion of bioenergy from forests through the Renewable Energy Directive can level off all trade-offs. While forests are crucial for climate adaptation and restoration such as climate-smart forestry, biodiversity-friendly afforestation, nature-based climate solutions, a one-size fits all approach may be detrimental especially in the long run. 

How to cite: Dekker, S., de Boer, H., Santos, M., Hanssen, S., and de Kroon, H.: Forest-based climate mitigation: a systems perspective focused on bio-energy and carbon, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6829, 2026.

This work addresses a fundamental limitation in current forest restoration strategies: degraded landscapes are highly fragmented, yet investment decisions are rarely guided by spatially explicit economic indicators. As a result, restoration efforts often depend on voluntary actions and fail to alter the spatial configurations that allow deforestation to persist and spread. We present a framework that integrates fractal theory¹, landscape topology², and economic reasoning to convert the geometry of deforested areas into measurable restoration costs at the pixel level.

Using ecological skeletons² and critical thresholds of natural capital, we derive a spatial–economic metric that assigns an intervention cost to every degraded patch. This leads to investment and priority maps that explicitly show where action should be taken, the expected financial effort required, and the order in which patches should be restored. By turning sophisticated fractal diagnostics into practical decision-support tools, this work provides a quantitative foundation for allocating public and private funds to restoration actions that maximize impact per unit of investment.

¹ Urgilez-Clavijo, A., Rivas-Tabares, D. A., Martín-Sotoca, J. J., & Tarquis Alfonso, A. M. (2021). Local fractal connections to characterize the spatial processes of deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Entropy, 23(6), 748.

² Urgilez-Clavijo, A., Rivas-Tabares, D. A., Gobin, A., Tarquis Alfonso, A. M., & de la Riva Fernández, J. (2025). Understanding local connectivity and complexity in the skeleton of deforestation. Scientific Reports, 15(1), 18192.

How to cite: Urgilez-Clavijo, A., Rivas-Tabares, D. A., Ansaloni, R., Martínez, E., Castro-Rivera, Ma. E., and Pérez-Blanco, D.: Mapping forest restoration costs using a spatial–economic framework for fractal deforestation patterns, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-10441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-10441, 2026.

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are often promoted as cost-effective and readily available mitigation measures to slow down global warming. The largest emission reduction potentials are estimated for forest-based NCS such as reforestation, avoided deforestation, and improved forest management. Yet, uncertainties are high regarding the magnitude and permanence of negative or avoided emissions, given i.a. uncertainties in implementation and governance of these measures, extrapolating global potentials from limited case study data, and effects of climate change on forest carbon stocks.

We set out to better constrain the biophysical potential of forest-based NCS using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. The model has a long track record of simulating the effects of climate and climate change on the carbon, water and nitrogen cycle of forests and other terrestrial ecosystems. Whereas the management of agricultural systems was already well-represented, the model so far had no explicit representation of any forest management.

We implemented forest harvest, but more importantly replaced the use of a single average individual representing all trees in a grid-cell with an explicit representation of age classes in order to improve simulation of forest (re-)growth after management (harvest or land-use abandonment) and after natural disturbance events (e.g. fire, drought).

We show results for the historical period and future scenarios contrasting simulations with and without forest harvest and demonstrate the importance of including age classes.

How to cite: Ostberg, S. and Müller, C.: Implementing forest-based natural climate solutions (NCS) in a global vegetation model to better constrain global potentials, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12351, 2026.

Forest-based climate mitigation depends on the long-term stability of forest carbon uptake, yet resilience under shifting hydroclimatic conditions remains uncertain. While forest management and reporting largely operate within national borders, forest water supply is regulated by atmospheric moisture transport across large and often transboundary source regions. This creates a scale mismatch between governance structures and the physical processes that sustain carbon sequestration.

We develop a global framework linking (i) governance-relevant sink units (countries) with (ii) physically defined upwind moisture source regions to assess the hydroclimatic vulnerability of major forest carbon stocks. Large forest carbon stocks are mapped from satellite-based aboveground biomass products, and hydroclimatic stress is quantified using drought indices alongside carbon-uptake proxies. Areas are classified as vulnerable where increasing drought stress co-occurs with weakening carbon uptake signals over recent decades.

Using an Eulerian atmospheric moisture tracking model (WAM2layers), we quantify each sink region’s seasonal dependence on terrestrial versus oceanic upwind moisture sources and the spatial concentration of key source areas. Initial results indicate strong geographic and seasonal variation in upwind moisture dependence, showing that atmospheric teleconnections can influence drought exposure of forest carbon sinks beyond national boundaries.

How to cite: Grof, L., Bakels, L., Zanchettin, D., Staal, A., and Wang-Erlandsson, L.: Upwind moisture sources shape drought vulnerability of major forest carbon stocks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17473, 2026.

Forest productivity often increases with tree species mixing. However, the structural mechanisms through which species mixing reorganizes stand structure across hierarchical levels and thereby regulates forest productivity and carbon storage remain unresolved. Here, we combined high-resolution UAV-LiDAR surveys with Dagum Gini decomposition in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest to partition stand structural heterogeneity into inter- and intra-specific components. We found that species mixing generated contrasting structural responses across hierarchical levels, amplifying size differentiation among species while reducing size variation within species. The resulting increase in inter-specific heterogeneity was the dominant pathway promoting aboveground carbon accumulation, consistent with realized niche complementarity and more efficient space use. By contrast, intra-specific structural convergence exerted a negative effect on carbon storage, likely reflecting growth suppression under intensified neighborhood competition. Overall, species mixing enhanced aboveground biomass because the benefits of species-level structural stratification outweighed the costs of population-level homogenization. Our results highlight hierarchical structural reorganization as a key mechanism linking biodiversity to forest productivity.

How to cite: Zhou, Z.: Species mixing enhances aboveground biomass via structural heterogeneity in a subtropical forest, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-1895, 2026.

Restoration based on reference ecosystems offers essential benchmarks for achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Yet, existing quantitative research often fails to account for the spatial heterogeneity of these references. This study proposes a regionalized framework combining zoning logic with key indicators to assess restoration goals and potential fairly. Using the northern Qinling Mountains as a case area, the research applies a dual-indicator approach: first, using eco-geological metrics to map resource distribution; and second, utilizing landscape integrity, NDVI, and NPP to set site-specific restoration targets. Reference ecosystems were defined via protected area data and human footprint thresholds. By tracking the spatio-temporal evolution of these systems, the study evaluates previous restoration efforts and identifies priority zones for future intervention. This approach provides a scientifically grounded blueprint for regional ecological protection and repair.

How to cite: Hao, Y.: Towards a spatiotemporal framework for ecological restoration management based on geo-ecological zoning and reference states, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4624, 2026.

Heartwood formation represents a major physiological transition in tree development, converting hydraulically active sapwood into structurally and chemically resistant tissue. This process has important implications for tree longevity, hydraulic regulation, and long-term carbon storage, yet the drivers of variation in heartwood formation among conspecific trees remain poorly quantified. In particular, it is unclear how accelerated growth, management interventions, and short-term stress interact to influence heartwood development in temperate hardwood species within forestry systems designed to enhance carbon sequestration and resilience. Here, we assess the combined effects of tree size, age, growth rates, and growth suppression on heartwood formation in Quercus robur across a network of planted stands of contrasting ages and species compositions in central England. These include young (14-year-old) intimate mixture plantations comprising up to 27 tree species, established with the explicit aim of improving carbon storage and forest resilience, alongside older planted stands and managed trees subjected to canopy pollarding. We measured heartwood and sapwood areas in 183 trees spanning ages from 11 to 120 years, using full stem cross-sections and increment cores. Heartwood boundaries were validated using ferrous sulphate staining and tylosis detection. Growth histories were reconstructed using tree-ring analysis, allowing estimation of lifetime mean growth rates, size-independent instantaneous growth rates, and post-disturbance growth resilience following the 2018 drought. Statistical analyses combined nonlinear allometric models, generalized additive models, and mixed-effects approaches to disentangle the roles of size, age, growth, management, and stress. Heartwood area increased strongly with stem diameter, explaining most of the variation among individual trees (R² ≈ 0.98), while age exerted an additional but secondary influence. For trees of similar diameter, older individuals consistently contained more heartwood, indicating that heartwood formation is not solely a function of size. Heartwood onset occurred early, with a 50% probability at a diameter of 8.5 ± 0.8 cm. Following onset, heartwood expansion accounted for an increasing fraction of total basal area increment, rising from approximately 40% in small trees to over 80% in large trees. Despite declining sapwood proportion with size, absolute sapwood area continued to increase, indicating sustained canopy development even in large trees. Both lifetime mean and size-independent instantaneous growth rates were positively associated with heartwood expansion, demonstrating that faster-growing trees consistently allocate more biomass to heartwood formation. In contrast, short-term growth suppression following drought or canopy pollarding did not reduce heartwood development. Trees with lower post-drought growth resilience and pollarded trees that had already initiated heartwood formation exhibited equal or greater heartwood proportions, suggesting a shift in allocation towards durable tissues under stress. Our results support a sapwood homeostasis mechanism linking growth, canopy function, and heartwood formation in Q. robur. Importantly, accelerated growth in mixed-species plantations does not compromise heartwood development and may enhance long-term carbon residence times through earlier and greater heartwood accumulation. These findings provide mechanistic evidence that climate- and biodiversity-smart forestry strategies based on species mixtures and productivity gains can simultaneously support resilience and long-term carbon storage in temperate hardwood systems.

How to cite: Barcante Ladvocat Cintra, B., Blowfield, H., Anderson, O., and Bradwell, J.: Growth-driven heartwood formation in oak: evidence across monocultures and mixed-species plantations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-12998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12998, 2026.

Biodiversity preservation is a critical component of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially in the face of accelerating climate change and its impacts on forest ecosystems. Macrofungi, particularly ectomycorrhizal species, play essential ecological roles in nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, and maintaining forest health. This study surveyed macrofungal diversity from May to November 2025 in the proposed Taiwan Red Cypress Ecological Conservation Area. The sampling site was located near the Lulin Formosan Cypress, along the Alishan Road. This area is a natural high-elevation forest dominated by Chamaecyparis formosensis, Quercus tatakaensis, Pasania kawakamii, Prunus campanulata, and Phellodendron amurense var. wilsonii. Fungal identification was based on morphological characteristics and molecular analyses, including sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and large subunit (LSU) regions. For selected taxa, additional gene loci such as rpb2 and tef1-α were sequenced to perform multi-locus phylogenetic analysis. In total, 100 fungal taxa were identified, comprising 22 Ascomycetes and 78 Basidiomycetes. Among these, 94 macrofungal species were newly recorded for the conservation area, and 8 were new records for Taiwan, indicating high fungal diversity and ecological significance. Many of the recorded taxa are ectomycorrhizal fungi associated with dominant tree species in the area. The results provide valuable baseline data for understanding the responses of fungal communities to environmental changes and support long-term monitoring and conservation planning in high-elevation Taiwanese forests.

How to cite: Hsiao, W., Xu, Y.-C., Wen, C.-C., and Chen, C.-Y.: Macrofungal Diversity in the Proposed Taiwan Red Cypress Conservation Area: New Records and a Baseline for Conservation Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-15546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-15546, 2026.

Climate change transforms national park ecosystems, affecting wildlife and visitors alike. Systematic and flexible management strategies are needed to address varying climate impacts. This study established two conservation objectives—biodiversity conservation and forest hazard management—for climate adaptation in Palgongsan National Park, Daegu, South Korea, applying the RAD(Resist-Accept-Direct) framework.

We identified actionable measures: biodiversity conservation through "habitat refugia establishment and management" and "structural diversity enhancement"; forest hazard management via "fuelbreaks establishment," "thinning and pruning," and "trail relocation". Spatial machine learning models identified biodiversity priority zones and fire-vulnerable areas. RAD adaptation levels were assigned to each zone, visualizing intervention outcomes.

Spatial analysis identified priority zones for adaptation measures. Single intervention-single adaptation level suits some areas, while multiple interventions-multiple adaptation levels are optimal elsewhere. This demonstrates that intervention types and combinations vary systematically by conservation objectives and local characteristics.

The RAD framework proves effective for national park climate adaptation strategy development. Proposed spatial priorities and intervention combinations provide a scientific basis to enhance existing management plans. Continuous monitoring and stakeholder collaboration are essential post-implementation.

How to cite: Lee, J., Mo, Y., and Jeong, G.: Developing Climate Change Adaptation Pathways Considering Biodiversity and Forest Hazards: A Case Study of Palgongsan National Park, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-16504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-16504, 2026.

Wildfire projections for Europe depend not only on future climatic conditions, but also on how fuels evolve as forests age, are managed, and expand through afforestation. This study focuses on the dynamic fuel representation in FLAM by linking it with the forest model G4M in a coupled framework for EU27+UK. The coupling provides scenario-consistent, annually updated fuels (from live biomass, deadwood, and litter) from G4M to FLAM, and FLAM returns burned area used to update forest carbon trajectories and fuels in G4M in the following year.

FLAM runs on a 0.5° grid with daily time steps and simulates ignition, spread, and burned area as a function of climate, fuel loads, vegetation type, and human influence. Daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed are taken from ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 forcings (UKESM1-0-LL and GFDL-ESM4). Fuels from G4M are divided into “old” fuels (pre-2000 managed forests) and “new” fuels (post-2000 afforested forests). The combined fuel load in each grid cell is updated dynamically using the effective burned ratio, so cells with higher burned ratios increasingly draw fuel from unburned stands, while low burned-ratio cells remain dominated by managed forest fuels.

To limit repeated burning within grid cells, an annual burned ratio approach is used to reduce the effective burnable fraction where only the remaining unburned forest area can burn. To avoid unrealistic permanent fuel depletion, a recovery function reduces the effective burned ratio toward zero (parameterized with a = 0.65 over b = 25 years), implying roughly 4% of the remaining burned ratio is removed annually, consistent with multi-decadal stand recovery times and typical rotation lengths in European managed forests. Assumptions include successful regeneration after stand-replacing fires and no change in species composition.

FLAM is calibrated and validated with historical forest burned area observations showing moderate correlation (monthly correlation r ≈ 0.63; annual r ≈ 0.59). Projections for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 show cumulative burned area of roughly ~27–35 Mha and wildfire-driven biomass carbon losses of ~290–360 Mt C. The presentation will show how this dynamic fuel coupling changes projected wildfire outcomes and what it implies for forest carbon and biomass supply.

How to cite: San Pedro, J., Jo, H.-W., Park, E., Krasovskiy, A., and Kraxner, F.: Estimating wildfire-driven forest carbon losses using dynamic fuels under managed and afforested forests in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-20201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20201, 2026.

Sustainable forest management and ecosystem-based adaptation are essential for maintaining ecosystem service (ES) functionality under climate change. We apply the spatially explicit, process-based dynamic model LandClim, which incorporates the effects of major natural disturbances (e.g., wind, fire and bark beetle outbreaks), to assess how different climate change scenarios (e.g., RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and forest management strategies influence the future provision of ecosystem services in multiple and climatically as well as ecologically different European forests. Simulations are initialized using detailed forest inventory data. The study is conducted across six European Living Labs, where simulation scenarios and management strategies are co-developed in close collaboration with local stakeholders. We investigate how alternative management strategies can balance ecosystem service provision as forest dynamics evolve under changing climatic conditions. Natural disturbances and their shifting regimes are explicitly accounted for in the analysis. This study supports the development of more resilient forest management strategies, enhancing the sustainability of ES provision and facilitating adaptation to climate change.

How to cite: Costa, M., Djahangard, M., Vollmer, M., Coșofreț, C., Krsnik, G., Kukobat, L., Chen, L., and Bugmann, H.: Exploring ecosystem-based adaptation under climate change in different European forests, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21839, 2026.

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to reduce embedded deforestation in certain commodities imported into the European Union by requiring companies to prove that products are deforestation-free. Here, the level of due diligence obligations required is based on the overall risk score assigned to a specific country of origin. The first version of these risk scores, published last year, aims to reflect past deforestation rates and governance risks. However, the scores have been widely criticized by political and environmental advocacy groups for being politically motivated rather than representative of real deforestation risks, and for being too coarse in their national scale and commodity-invariant design. Hence, we here provide an additional, high-resolution, spatially explicit perspective on deforestation risk for the upcoming year. Using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and spatiotemporal data on past forest losses, landscape characteristics, and human development, we compute global risk maps for different drivers of forest loss, including deforestation for different commodities. With this analysis, we aim to complement the existing EUDR risk scores by highlighting sub-national variation and driver-specific risk patterns. We aim to contribute a transparent, data-driven perspective to ongoing discussions on deforestation risk in international policy processes.

How to cite: Knecht, N., Fetzer, I., and Rocha, J.: Predicting forest loss risk for deforestation regulation using Convolutional Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-21852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21852, 2026.