Extreme weather linked to excess human mortality in projections of future climate

Extreme weather events pose various significant impacts on society, including human health. The objectives of our analysis are: (1) to identify weather patterns that are associated with excess mortality, and (2) to assess how the frequency of these patterns may change in future climate scenarios using regional climate model simulations. We build upon our previous study that revealed winter extreme events linked to excess mortality and their intensified impacts from their compound occurrences (Plavcová and Urban, 2020). High-quality long-term mortality time series data from 1982 to 2020 is utilized to identify meteorological phenomena linked to significant excess mortality in the Czech Republic. Our analysis focuses on sudden changes in various meteorological parameters (such as temperature and pressure) and their compound occurrences during both winter and summer seasons.

Subsequently, we analyze projected changes in the frequencies of these extreme weather events using an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for the end of the 21st century. We acknowledge a significant role of future adaptation of human society to changing weather conditions resulting from global climate change remains uncertain, although it plays a significant role. Nonetheless, concern for human health is one of the most compelling motivation to study the effects of climate change. Our findings provide insights into how the occurrence of weather events linked to mortality risk may evolve under future climate scenarios, and may help to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies to manage health risks linked to extreme weather. 

• Plavcová E, Urban A (2020) Intensified impacts on mortality due to compound winter extremes in the Czech Republic, Sci. Total Environ., 746, Article 141033, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141033