Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI ) is a thermal comfort index that describes how the human body experiences ambient conditions. It has units of temperature, and it takes into account the effect of air temperature, humidity, wind, radiation, and clothes. It is increasingly used in many countries as a measure of thermal comfort for outdoor conditions, and its value is calculated together with the operational meteorological forecast. At the same time, forecasts of outdoor UTCI tend to have a relatively large error caused by the error of meteorological forecasts. In Slovenia, there is a relatively dense network of meteorological stations. Crucially, on these stations, global solar radiation measurements are performed, making estimating the true value of UTCI more reliable. We used seven years of measurements in hourly resolution from 42 stations to first verify the operational UTCI forecast for the first forecast day and, secondly, to try to improve the forecast via post-processing. The verification showed that the operational ALADIN model tends to overestimate the UTCI values. The overestimation is most pronounced in the morning when the mean error is about 8 °C. Also, a small percentage of cases have a very large error (up to 40 °C). We used two machine-learning methods to try to improve the forecasts of UTCI: linear regression and neural networks. Both methods have successfully reduced the error in the operational UTCI forecasts. Both reduced the daily mean error from about 2.6 °C to almost zero, while the daily mean absolute error decreased from 5 °C to 3 °C for the neural network and 3.5 °C for linear regression.

How to cite: Kuzmanović, D., Skok, G., and Banko, J.: Improving the operational forecasts of outdoor UTCI with post-processing, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-4, 2023.

The comprehensive assessment of the human bioclimate requires considering the four principal meteorological variables that affect the thermal environment (i.e. temperature, humidity, wind speed and global solar radiation). It also requires using data at spatial scales that are relevant to the population exposure. Meeting these requirements with the use of ground-based weather stations is usually unattainable at nation-wide level. This is partially due to the incomplete spatiotemporal availability of the relevant observational data (especially of global solar radiation), as well as to the fact that the monitoring stations are often present in locations (e.g. airports) that are not representative of the human-biometeorological conditions. Gridded climate data can be used to overcome the above issues. In view of this fact, here, we exploit regional reanalysis data to perform a long-term (1991-2020) analysis of the human thermal bioclimate and its trends in Greece. To this end, the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA) dataset, at 5.5 km spatial resolution, is used. The CERRA dataset is combined with population data to better reflect the thermal environment experienced by the people through a population-weighted approach at regional units or combinations thereof that are based on the NUTS-3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics-3) classification. The population data are further used to assess the thermal-related risk in terms of annual number of exposure person-days, focusing on bioclimatic extremes. The latter are expressed by an advanced human-biometeorological index, namely the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), which is computed with the use of the RayMan Pro model. Short-term acclimatization effects are considered for mPET by adjusting the extremes’ thresholds through the application of a 30-day Gaussian filter. The present work is performed in the frame of the HEAT-ALARM project and provides preliminary results of the above described analysis, highlighting that regional reanalysis data can be valuable for climate assessments in the context of human-biometeorology, especially when combined with the consideration of population exposure aspects.

How to cite: Agathangelidis, I., Giannaros, C., Galanaki, E., Cartalis, C., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., and Matzarakis, A.: Exploiting regional reanalysis data for assessing long-term trends of the human thermal bioclimate in Greece, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-154, 2023.

Climate change has led to national, regional and local adaptation measures. However, these measures are not usually implemented in a targeted way, i.e. in urban areas with the most significant problem, or they are not designed in the optimal way to have the maximum efficiency at local scale. Towards this perspective the evaluation of human thermal stress in different urban environments, using appropriate models at very high resolution is considered fully appropriate.

The assessment and quantification of the thermal comfort for selected urban districts within the wider Athens area, are performed by the application of PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) and UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) indexes, which are based on the energy balance of the human body. The above indexes are calculated with the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model ENVI-met, at city scale (resolution 1 × 1m). Measurements from the nearest meteorological stations as well as sub-scaling of the ERA5 data of the European COPERNICUS service at a local scale of 1 × 1 km with the atmospheric model WRF, are used as input data to the CFD model. The simulations are evaluated using high spatial and temporal resolution measurements obtained by a bicycle equipped with meteorological sensors and by an unmanned aerial vehicle equipped with a thermal camera. Further, the input data for future runs are obtained from downscaling of the emission mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) and the extreme climate scenario (RCP8.5) with the WRF model.

The findings of the analysis will provide comprehensive actions in order to optimize the resilience of the urban environment to various climate change scenarios.

Acknowledgements: This research is co-financed by European Regional Development Fund  and Greek Operational Program “Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship & Innovation (NSRF 2014-2020), entitled “Bioclimatic urban design services for the sustainability and resilience of the urban environment in the context of climate change (BIOASTY)”

How to cite: Nastos, P. T., Solomos, S., Polychroni, I. D., Nastou, M.-P. P., and Zerefos, S.: Evaluation of human thermal stress within urban environments in Athens, Greece, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-605, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-605, 2023.

The work has been submitted on behalf of the members of PROCILIAS TG 3.11 and the MCC Collaborative Research Network.

Early heat warning systems and heat-health action plans have been considered as one of the crucial heat prevention measures (HPMs) to prevent heat related mortality. However, previous studies showed that beneficial effects of HWSs are not consistent across cities and more research is needed to assess the efficiency of HPMs.

The aim of this study is to better understand the ability of HPMs to prevent heat-related mortality across Europe. Via MCC network, we obtained daily mortality time series from 267 locations across 16 European countries in the period 1990-2018. Via partners in COST Action PROCLIAS, we collected information about HPMs from selected European countries. Based on the WHO criteria, we developed a classification of HPMs in individual cities and countries, regarding their complexity.

We employed a two-stage longitudinal study design, to assess the temporal changes in heat-mortality in individual countries and to quantify beneficial effects of HPM implementation. In the first stage, we used quasi-Poisson regression models coupled with distributed lag non-linear models to calculate an exposure-response function in each location in each three-year window of the study period. In the second stage, we employed a random effect mixed meta-regression model, to quantify the effects of implementation, methodological updates, and overall complexity of HPMs . Modifying effects of the spatial-temporal variability in heatwave intensity were also considered.

Results suggest that South and Western European countries with the most complex HPMs, that include detailed heat and health action plans, experienced the largest reduction of the heat-related mortality risk after HPM's implementation. However, the results were sensitive to timing of the main heat wave periods in each region. Findings of this study highlight the need for further development and improvement of heat prevention measures in Europe.

How to cite: Urban, A., Huber, V., Henry, S., Plaza, N. P., and Dasgupta, S.: Do heat prevention measures reduce the risk of heat-related mortality in Europe?, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-133, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-133, 2023.

Heat Health Warning System (HHWS) provide information for general public and public health. In Germany, weather Forecast is used to predict heat episodes, which are associated with negative health impacts. Therefore, a heat balance model of the human body and an extracted equivalent temperature (Perceived Temperature) is applied. Thresholds for strong and extreme heat stress based on thermal perception classification are used and build the first approach of the HHWS. Furthermore, the threshold of strong heat stress includes a short term adaptation component and considers the previous thermal stress conditions of the last 30 days. The second step includes nocturnal conditions, based on forecasted minimum air temperature or a simulated maximum indoor temperature for typical houses. The indoor temperature is calculated also based on a urban heat model for cities with a population over 100.000 inhabitants. Both criteria are important for the decision about warnings for the present and next days. Warnings are generated by daily weather forecast automatically and are additionally confirmed or adjusted by a biometeorological forecaster. The warning is valid on county level considering several elevation classes. The heat warning is available as a map on the internet and registered users can receive information by a daily newsletter. A specific smartphone app is also available for general use. The main target groups are the public, nursing homes and ministries of the federal states and other authorities. The HHWS with his regional differentiation of heat stress warnings is also part of the heat health action plans in Germany. HHWS is main part of the Heat action Plans in Germany.

How to cite: Matzarakis, A. and Muthers, S.: The Heat Health Warning System in Germany  – As part of Heat Actions Plans, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-23, 2023.

Global climate change and its thermal implications on cities makes it necessary to react with long- and short-term climate-adapted urban planning and action. This should be organised and implemented by municipalities as part of heat action plans, to minimise future risks of overheated city districts on the city dwellers and especially on vulnerable groups. The evaluation of the thermal impact, based on thermal indices (depicting human thermoregulation) is most important in order to allow for a safe and risk-minimised but also human-adapted urban planning. Out of more than 200 thermal indices, the three most important ones have emerged in the literature (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature, Universal Thermal Climate Index and Perceived Temperature). These indices contain the complete energy balance equation of a human body under prevailing meteorological conditions.

This contribution demonstrates the thermal vulnerabilities, strengths and similarities of the indices. Min-Max-Normalisation was applied to relate and spatially compare the indices, independently of the physical unit and range. Subsequent regression analysis revealed the relationship between each index in turn. In this context, the indices were calculated for the urban district Rieselfeld in Freiburg, Germany, using the numerical, urban microscale model SkyHelios. The model is suitable to predict the meteorological outdoor conditions of future building- and local climate- scenarios.

Our investigation showed that the different thermal indices are not so different and differ mainly in the areas where the modification of radiation and wind is most prominent. These are also precisely the zones in which automated clothing becomes a key driving factor and differs among the indices.

We want to emphasise, that in future it will be necessary to compare not only the thermal indices with each other, but also the underlying implementations of the indices and the higher-level urban microscale models. This will increase confidence of these models, providing additional information for future action in heat action plans.

How to cite: Gangwisch, M. and Matzarakis, A.: Normalisation of Thermal Indices in the Context of Urban Environments, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-30, 2023.

The relationship between weather and some meteorological parameters with human behavior, and even, crime has been well-established by several studies (e.g. Anderson et al., 1995; Cohn, 1990; Mazon, 2013; Potgieter et al., 2022). The thermal disconfort due to high values of both temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere in summer and early autumn in the Mediterranean areas, mainly in the coast, leads to a persistent feeling of muggy weather conditions day and night, which might affect human behavior. Based on this hypothesis, an investigation has been performed to explore the relationship between the heat index and four different typologies of crime from the Catalan Regional Police daily database 2010 to 2019.  

In the first stage of the research, violent crimes in Catalonia during the period 2010-2019 has been analysed, with the aim of finding whether periods with a high rate of crimes are mainlyin summer, and with a lower rate in winter. Various types of crimes of aggressive nature were examined, and those that positively responded to the hypothesis proceeded to the second stage. An analysis of the summer periods of those typologies of crimes that passed the first stage were analysed in the second part, in which arelationship between days with higher crime and days with a higher heat index (muggy weather) was explored.

The results suggest that a relationship does exist between violent crimes and muggy weather conditions as three of the four typologies of violent crimes vary with weather seasons: crimes increase when summer arrives and there is a drop in winter in criminal offenses such as bodily harm, tortures, and against sexual freedom.

Nevertheless, in the second stage of the research, results are not that clear. Crimes of torture give confusing results which leads to the conclusion that these do not hold a relationship with the heat index. However, the other two typologies show that there is a higher probability of a correspondence between peak days of crimes and days with a higher muggy weather level. Therefore, there seems to be a relationship between violent crimes and muggy weather conditions, specifically in the typologies of crimes that involve bodily harm and crimes against sexual freedom and indemnity.

References:

Anderson CA, Deuser WE, DeNeve KM, 1995. Hot temperatures, hostile affect, hostile cognition, and arousal: tests of a general model of affective aggression. Personal Soc Psychol Bull 21(5):434–448.

Cohn EG, 1990. Weather and crime. Brit J Crim 30(1):51–64. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.bjc.a047980

Potgieter A, Fabris-Rotelli IN, Breetzke G. et al., 2022. The association between weather and crime in a township setting in South Africa. Int J Biometeorol 66, 865–874. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02242-0

Mazon J., 2013. The influence of thermal discomfort on the attention index of teenagers: An experimental evaluation. Int J Biometeorol 58(5). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0652-0

How to cite: Mazon, J., Valdés, I., and Castellà, J.: Exploring the influence of thermal discomfort due to muggy weather conditions on violent crimes and aggressive behavior in Catalonia (Spain) in the period 2010-2019., EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-167, 2023.

The climate is an essential factor for human bio-comfort and health. Since ancient times, people have used the climate's resources for their health, but at the same time, they have sought ways to cope with climate hazards. Nowadays, bioclimatic issues are gaining even greater importance, given the drastic increase in extreme climate events. There is a growing need for a deeper understanding of these events, the ways and mechanisms by which they affect the biostatus of the human organism, as well as the ways to deal with this problem at the individual and societal level. This report examines the main bioclimatic hazards in Bulgaria and their possible direct and indirect effects on human health. Direct are the effects of heat waves and ice episodes, intense precipitation and floods, strong winds, storms, avalanches, UV radiation overdoses, and contrasting weather changes. On the other hand, weather and climate indirectly affect our health through their influence on the air we breathe, the water we drink, the food we consume, and the ecosystems that surround us. The report also comments on some climate-sensitive diseases – respiratory, cardiovascular, and infectious (borne by water, food, air, and vectors). Socio-economic parameters of the society and of the individual have an important bearing on the intensity and number of these climate-related health consequences. Here they are considered as an index of health vulnerability in the country tracked for the period 1995-2020. On the other hand, this report also pays attention to the country's bioclimatic resources, with a view to using them to optimize human health. These are solar, thermal, air, wind, and cryogenic resources.The utilization of bioclimatic resources and dealing with bioclimatic hazards in Bulgaria are issues embedded in a number of state policies at the national and local level. This report sheds light on the main goals, priorities, and measures set out in the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change. (Funding information: The study is supported by the National Science Fund of Bulgaria, Contract КП-06-ДК1/1).

How to cite: Batchvarova, E. and Mateeva, Z.: Climate and Human Health, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-617, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-617, 2023.

Weather sensitivity describes reactions of the human body related to the current weather and especially to changes in weather. A clear scientific  definition of weather sensitivity does not exist. Positive impacts, as well as effects on mood, are rarely mentioned. Weather sensitivity occurs mainly in temperate latitudes or climates, as this is also where most rapid changes in weather conditions occur or are present. Scientifically based data on the prevalence of weather-associated complaints and symptoms as well as impairment of well-being have been obtained from population surveys on weather sensitivity in Germany since the 1950s. This analysis focuses on the findings from the representative population survey of 2021 and relates the results to the surveys of 2013 and 2001. The “Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach”, on behalf of the German Meteorological Service, interviewed a representative sample of 1080 German citizens. Based on respondents’ self-assessment, the proportion of individuals who said the weather had an impact on their health was 46% in 2021, compared to 50% in 2013 and 54% in 2001. Elderly and chronically ill individuals are more likely to suffer from weather sensitivity than the average population. Women are more affected than men. The most common complaints of weather sensitivity are headaches/migraines, exhaustion/general fatigue, limited activities, and abnormal fatigue. The decrease in the proportion of weather-sensitive humans may be related to greater health awareness and improved health care. Preventive measures, such as going outdoors and dosed exposure of the body to different weather, as well as avoiding other stresses, can train the body’s ability to regulate itself and help  to make it less susceptible to weather sensitivity.

How to cite: Matzarakis, A. and Graw, K.: Weather Sensitivity Surveys in Germany, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-24, 2023.

Fog is one of the special weather phenomena of the Hungarian lowlands in autumn and winter. It has been studied from many points of view (for example frequency, type, predictability), but not yet from the point of view of human thermal load. The aim of this work is to fill this gap. We observed a total of 132 fog events at Martonvásár (Hungary, Central Transdanubian region) in the period 2017-2023. During our observations, we documented the period of its existence, air pressure, air temperature, air humidity and wind speed. Based on the meteorological and human (body mass, body length, sex, age, person walking at a speed of 1.1 m/s) data, we estimated the thermal load of the foggy environment using a clothing thermal resistance (r_cl)-operative temperature model. The model is very simple, based on the calculation of the energy balance of the human body covered with clothing. The main results are as follows. In the fogs that cause the greatest lack of heat, the r_cl is around 2.5 clo, the operative temperature is around -7 ℃.  In fogs with a much smaller heat deficit, the r_cl is around 0.5 clo, and the operative temperature is around 15-17 ℃. In the vast majority of cases, r_cl varies between 1-2 clo. We were able to make sure that the thermal load of the fog is mostly determined by the temperature and radiation conditions. Further observations are needed. For instance, one should observe the smallest thermal deficit, in which fog can still exist.

How to cite: Ács, F., Kristóf, E., Szalkai, Z., and Zsákai, A.: Human thermal load in the fog in the Hungarian lowland, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-446, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-446, 2023.