Towards impact-based warning systems for wind gust hazards in Ukraine

Wind gusts are among the most frequent and damaging hazardous weather phenomena in Ukraine, with impacts spanning infrastructure, energy systems, agriculture, and public safety. Their widespread occurrence and association with both large-scale and localized atmospheric processes make them an essential subject for meteorological risk assessment. This study aims to assess the societal impacts of severe wind gusts in Ukraine, review current warning practices, and propose enhanced preparedness and communication strategies.

Two categories of events were examined: convective wind gusts associated with thunderstorms and large-scale windstorms driven by synoptic systems. Meteorological data, including wind gust observations and supporting weather parameters, were used to characterize each event. Wind gust observations and supplementary weather data were combined with impact reports from the State Emergency Service and media sources to construct a detailed picture of each event. The analysis focused on the relationship between wind speed and observed damage, to identify critical thresholds of impact.

An impact table was developed linking observed wind speeds to documented damage, serving as a foundation for impact-oriented warning systems. The impact table enables better classification of wind gust severity in Ukraine and supports the development of customized guidance products for decision-makers, authorities and emergency management service. Particular attention is given to enhancing public risk communication by developing call-to-action statements relevant for different intensity wind gust events, and safety guidelines for the general public applicable before, during, and after severe wind gust events.

This approach also enables the validation of existing warning criteria used by the forecasters within the national warning system and lays the groundwork for future development of more impact-driven warning thresholds. The proposed framework may serve as a model for future risk assessments of other hazardous meteorological phenomena in Ukraine and beyond.