The shift from traditional weather forecasts to impact-based forecasting (IBF), and similarly, the issuing of warnings based on physical weather forecast thresholds vs. on predicted societal impacts, is often advocated to enhance societal preparedness and resilience. However, changing forecasting and warning paradigms may simply not be possible in the current state of data availability and knowledge, or could interfere with many well-established response routines on which authorities and other key stakeholders rely, if not closely co-produced and monitored. Such consequences demand a careful testing and establishment of this concept, requiring diverse and – often considerably more - resources than may have initially been expected in roll-out plans of IBF services.

At MeteoSwiss, drawing on experiences over the last two years from internal workshops, stakeholder consultations, research projects, and international experiences, we have engaged in a critical reflection on whether and how to integrate impact forecasts into our service portfolio, and what the strategic and operational questions are which need to be clarified to better come to a sensible judgement. This contribution outlines the motivations behind the reflections on how and for whom to provide impact forecasting services, and in what other way(s) we see a national meteorological service contribute to IBF.

We will cover the strategic principles guiding our current decisions, provide some concrete insights on use case explorations, technical advances, and exploratory research results, which have contributed to our current vision and open questions. Rather than offering a binary endorsement or rejection of IBF, we present a set of strategic considerations that can guide NMHSs facing similar dilemmas. By doing so, we contribute to a more nuanced discourse on the promises and pitfalls of impact-based approaches and argue for a context-sensitive, transparent, and participatory path forward.

How to cite: Mühlhofer, E., Kaderli, S., and Willemse, S.: Should we really do impact forecasts? Strategic learnings at MeteoSwiss, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-543, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-543, 2025.

The Met Office National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS) has provided Impact-based Warnings to the public and local responders since 2011. These warnings aim to convey the likelihood of societal impacts resulting from adverse weather. The approach uses a warning impact matrix that categorises impact severity (very low, low, medium and high) and likelihood to assign a warning colour classification (yellow, amber and red). To assess impact severity effectively, consideration of the spatial and temporal variability of exposure and vulnerability is necessary. Different approaches are currently used to integrate this information in risk and impact-based warnings (e.g. Impact tables developed through engagement with the responder communities; expert judgement and engagement with local advisors; quantitative vulnerability and exposure indicators included within automated risk forecasting tools).

Using Storm Eunice as a case study, we explore how different methods of quantifying and integrating exposure and vulnerability could influence warning classification. Storm Eunice impacted the UK in February 2022 and led to the issuance of two rare, red wind warnings. Focusing on building damage, which is referred to as structural damage in the Met Office impact tables, and population affected, we review different approaches to warning generation using a: (1) hazard-only approach; (2) exposure-based approach; and (3) a risk-based approach (inclusive of vulnerability) and compare the possible warnings these different methods could produce. Using these results, we then reflect on the influence these differences have on warning recipients and the effect this might have on warning communication and actions taken.  We will leverage results from a recent Warning Value Chain Assessment of Storm Eunice to reflect on the uptake and responses to different warnings.

How to cite: Robbins, J., Potter, S., Harrison, S., Nielson, F., and Turner, R.: How different approaches to exposure and vulnerability inclusion affect Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings: Storm Eunice (2022) UK case study, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-229, 2025.

Traditional Early Warning Systems (EWS) emphasize the physical aspects of hazards. Yet, recent advancements stress the importance of impact-based forecasts that instead focus on societal effects, including infrastructure damage and service disruption. The UN’s Sendai Framework and the WMO’s Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL) initiatives underscore the need for accessible multi-hazard warning systems to reduce disaster risks worldwide, especially for vulnerable regions prone to complex hazards. Probabilistic forecasting is increasingly used to enhance reliability and skill, combining event likelihood with potential impacts to inform decision-making.

The Horizon Europe project GOBEYOND’s vision is to revolutionize disaster risk management by developing and implementing a Multi-Risk Impact-based Early Warning System (MR-IEWS) for geo and weather hazards. By integrating impact-based forecasting, the project will provide timely and accurate warnings to empower decision-makers, emergency responders, and communities. The risks include multiple natural hazards, both weather-driven (floods, flash floods, droughts, storm surges, windstorms, extreme heat and wildfires) and geophysical (earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides and volcanoes).

A major challenge is that the hazard systems vary in lead times and spatial coverage, ranging from seconds for earthquakes to months for droughts and from localized areas to broad geographic extents. Additionally, different standards and protocols are being used for data acquisition, distribution, analysis and disseminating forecast outputs. Tools such as satellite imagery, seismometers, and weather radars enable real-time monitoring and hazard prediction, utilizing thresholds based on scientific data to issue warnings. For some hazards (especially weather-related hazards), recent machine learning developments enhance risk forecasts, allowing for more refined impact scenarios and better decision-support tools. Effective communication is critical, with warnings disseminated through media, mobile devices, and community networks tailored to local needs to foster responsiveness and preparedness. Community involvement is vital to ensure relevance and encourage proactive measures.

The study presents a roadmap of weather and geohazard warning systems on local, regional and European scale, emphasizing the need for continuous adaptation and innovation. Feedback mechanisms and resilience-building strategies are essential to keeping MR-IEWS effective in an evolving risk landscape and supporting communities’ readiness in the face of increasing environmental and societal challenges.

How to cite: Wetterhall, F., Zollo, A., and Colombelli, S. and the GOBEYOND project: A roadmap to Multi-Risk Impact-Based Early Warning System for Weather and Geo Hazards in Europe , EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-689, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-689, 2025.

We present Germany’s new natural hazards portal for the general public, “Naturgefahrenportal” (NGP). The NGP aims to consolidate various sources of hazard-related data onto a single accessible platform, promoting public understanding and preparedness. To this end, the NGP website presents current warnings for Germany, location-based hazards and risks as well as concrete measures for preparedness and behavior in a case of emergency.

The NGP serves as a central hub of information for the general public, aggregating the most relevant information in a uniform way, while linking to regional or single-hazard portals for deeper insights. It does not provide push notifications but complements existing public alert systems with a situational overview for Germany and background information on natural hazards.

The presentation includes an overview of features and walk-throughs of the NGP for different use cases from a user perspective. In the process, data sources and standardization will be discussed briefly, along with the specific advantages of bringing vital natural hazard information onto one platform with a consistent presentation. A brief “making-of” highlights the technical implementation as an agile team working with cloud services.

The NGP represents a major step forward in the communication of natural hazards in Germany. It serves the mutual benefit of reaching the public and featuring existing services and platforms. The integration of all relevant information onto a single, unified platform offers now a holistic view rather than isolated fragments of information. Available data on natural hazards in Germany will be more accessible to the general public and thus more valuable than ever, amid increasing climate-related threats. The NGP is now a critical instrument for enhancing public safety and resilience.

Acknowledgements

We would like to express our gratitude to various institutions in Germany for their support and their contributions to this DWD project, among them the German Federal Flood Forecasting Centers, the Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH), the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), the Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie (BKG), and the Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (BfG).

How to cite: Riede, H., Brendel, C., Erhardt, B., Hafer, M., Haller, M., Hüser, I., Koziar, C., Lengfeld, K., Leschzyk, D. K., Rauthe-Schöch, A., Reetz, B., and Walawender, E.: Germany's new national hazards portal "Naturgefahrenportal" (NGP), EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-163, 2025.

Losses and damages databases play a crucial role in disaster risk management by supporting informed decision-making. Despite being a data-rich country, Austria has lacked a consistent, curated multi-hazard database.  In response to the requirements of the United Nations, the European Union, and national authorities for efficient disaster monitoring and management, the CESARE project (FFG, 02/2022) was successfully implemented to develop a first demonstrator. It demonstrated that a coherent, event-based national damage database for Austria is not only feasible but also capable of supporting these international and national demands. The CESARE approach integrates data already collected by administrative bodies and federal authorities, harmonized through a unified data model, and hence preserves original data and collection processes, while enabling sustainable and consistent data sharing.

Building on this success, CESARE is currently transitioning from a demonstrator to a fully operational service. This phase includes nationwide coverage of damages and events across Austria, the integration of a broader range of hazards, further professionalization of data collection and storage processes, the upgrade of the web tool into an operational system, and the valorisation of collected data through the generation of insightful dashboards and reports. However, this transition also presents several challenges, which are actively addressed through new developments in data workflows and system architecture.

Currently covering the period from 2005 to today, CESARE provides harmonised damage data enriched with additional information such as weather data, tailored indicators, and detailed maps at the municipal level to enable evidence-based decision-making and enhanced disaster resilience. CESARE will significantly enhance quantitative analyses for the national risk assessment, the UNDRR-Sendai Framework monitoring, and federal-level disaster risk management. We will present key achievements and lessons learned to date, highlighting both progress made and challenges encountered in the transition from a demonstrator to an operational system.

* Collection, Standardization and Attribution of Robust Disaster Event Information

How to cite: Enigl, K., Imgrüth, D., and Kienberger, S.:  CESARE*: National Damage and Event Database for Austria — From demonstrator to operational service , EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-388, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-388, 2025.

In November 2023, the daily maximum temperatures (TXs) in the state of Rio de Janeiro reached their highest levels in the 1971-2023 period, and caused a substantial increase in mortality, particularly among the elderly. These temperatures occurred in the context of ongoing global warming and during the El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study evaluates the role of climate change and ENSO in modulating the probability of occurrence and intensity of extreme heat in this Brazilian state using non-stationary extreme value theory, as well as their impact on mortality.

We find that non-stationary models, in which the location parameter varies with global warming and/or ENSO, provide more accurate fits for annual maximum TXs than stationary models. The analysis reveals spatial differences in the influence of these drivers: the northern region is most affected by climate change, while ENSO only exerts its influence in the eastern region. Furthermore, we detect that climate change has made 2023-like events ~2°C warmer than in the pre-industrial climate, when such a high TX would have been extremely unlikely. For stations in the eastern parts of the state, the best fit is obtained with a multivariate non-stationary fit, so both global warming and El Niño contributed to increasing the probability of occurrence of the observed 2023 TX. Nevertheless, in none of the stations the ENSO effect overwhelms that of climate change. As global warming approaches 2°C, Rio de Janeiro must prepare for extreme temperature events of similar magnitude to occur on average every four years.

According to our results, these human-intensified events could have a considerable impact on mortality rates without appropriate adaptation measures. Specifically, climate change has contributed to one in three heat-related deaths during the peak of the 2023 event, increasing the daily heat-related attributable risk by approximately 1.4 times compared to pre-industrial climate conditions. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health strategies and climate-resilient infrastructure to mitigate future mortality risks.

Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the SAFETE project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 847635 (UNA4CAREER).

How to cite: Collazo, S., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., and Beguería, S.: Contribution of Climate Change to Record-Breaking Heat and Mortality in Rio de Janeiro State, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-49, 2025.

National and/or regional climate risk and vulnerability assessments are a key starting point for effective climate change adaptation planning and policy formulation. In Slovenia, the process of adopting and implementing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk and vulnerability assessment methodology from the Fifth Assessment Report started by outlining a proposed framework for national application, highlighting the key methodological considerations and the necessary transition from previous assessment approaches. It was important to address the shift from outdated ways from the Fourth Assessment Report that have already been used in some regions on project basis and to suggest how to update them. Some common mistakes and misunderstandings in existing vulnerability and risk assessments were pointed out to avoid them in future assessments. Furthermore, on the national level, the most important sectors have been chosen that a national assessment needs to focus on – from agriculture and forestry, water resources, public health to infrastructure and some horizontal interactions among them. Specific challenges within each sector and especially those arising in cross-sectoral areas have to be discussed when applying the IPCC framework, considering issues such as data availability, stakeholder engagement and awareness about climate change, and the integration of socio-economic factors. This includes being realistic about the data availability and reliability, the challenges of fitting together data from different sources and time periods and the crucial role of getting everyone from the specific sector involved. Fortunately, we have very good climate trends and projections data on the national level to describe the majority of climate hazards. We have explored how to better combine climate science with social and economic information in the regions to get a complete picture of the risks at the national and regional level. Our goal was to give policymakers, researchers, and people working in a specific sector a clearer understanding of the steps needed to make good decisions, build resilience in key areas, and create a more climate-safe future for the country.

The research was funded by Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency, Ministry of the Environment, Climate and Energy and Ministry of Cohesion and Regional Development in the frame of the research project V1-24022.

How to cite: Pogačar, T., Čenčur Curk, B., and Marot, N.: Implementing IPCC risk and vulnerability assessment: sectoral considerations and methodological transition to national and regional scale, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-447, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-447, 2025.

The increasing frequency and severity of weather and climate extremes have intensified the demand for risk-oriented forecasting frameworks capable of informing decision-making processes across sectors. While seasonal climate predictions offer valuable lead time for preparedness and planning, their operational integration into impact-based risk assessments remains limited. Impact-based forecasting (IBF), which quantifies risk by combining hazard metrics with information on exposure and vulnerability, has emerged as a promising approach to address this need. However, systematic and scalable methods to link seasonal forecasts with IBF frameworks remain underdeveloped.

To address this challenge, we present the Copernicus Forecast Module within CLIMADA, an open-source platform for climate risk analysis. This module provides an operational bridge between seasonal climate predictions and impact assessment by automating the entire workflow, from data acquisition through to impact and risk estimation. By integrating with the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS), it enables the systematic processing of seasonal forecasts into standardized climate hazard objects, focusing particularly on heat-related indices such as heatwave intensity and tropical nights.

The module’s design prioritizes stakeholder needs through a flexible and scalable architecture that accommodates various data sources and supports the customization of risk assessments to specific regional contexts and user requirements. Its automated workflow significantly reduces technical barriers between climate predictions and impact analysis, allowing civil protection agencies, urban planners, and other stakeholders to focus on applying sector-specific impact models and developing targeted adaptation strategies.

As part of our presentation, we will showcase the module and demonstrate live impact estimations for attendees, providing a practical illustration of how to move from seasonal forecast data to impact assessment. This hands-on example aims to highlight the module's potential to enhance early warning systems, inform climate adaptation planning, and support anticipatory action.

How to cite: Araya, D., Gebhart, V., Bresch, D. N., and Geiger, T.: From Seasonal Forecasts to Impact-Based Insights: The Copernicus Forecast Module for Operational Climate Risk Analysis, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-482, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-482, 2025.

Droughts, heatwaves and wildfires represent an increasing risk for both human society and the environment. Despite Southern Europe being assumed as one of the most endangered regions, ongoing recent climate change negatively influences the intensity, duration and impacts of these extreme events in Central European countries as well. Therefore, here we present a newly compiled database of droughts, heatwaves and wildfires in the Central European region spanning the 2000–2023 period. The database, based primarily on newspaper and online media reports, provides information about the occurrence and length of more than 800 extreme events, affected area, their impacts and societal responses. On the basis of newly available data, two severity indices were calculated, and the severity of individual events was evaluated according to several characteristics. Despite the differences among the individual countries (climate conditions, landscape, population, GDP), similar impacts and societal responses to extreme events could be observed. Several events (e.g. drought in 2019 or heatwaves and wildfires in 2022) had serious cross-border effects, too. Analysis of these extreme weather events allowed to reveal several joint patterns (increased mortality rate, household water supply issues, rising food prices) as well as weaknesses on the international level (e.g. lack of available firefighting equipment during large wildfires) during the occurrence of individual extreme events across Central Europe. Obtained results support an urgent necessity to develop a forecasting tool for the occurrence of drought, heatwave and wildfire events in the Central European region and implement it in the national forecasting services to reduce the negative impacts of these extreme events.

This research is supported by the OP JAK funding under Grant No. CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004635 “Advanced methods of greenhouse gases emission reduction and sequestration in agriculture and forest landscape for climate change mitigation (AdAgriF)”.

How to cite: Dolák, L., Plačková, B., Řezníčková, L., and Řehoř, J.: Severity and impacts of Central European droughts, heatwaves and wildfires in the 21st century, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-448, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-448, 2025.

Current climate change is evident in many environmental aspects, among them there is the progressive increase of the average sea level.

The height of the sea water along the coasts is characterized by variations which are consequence of causes having different time scales, including periodic tidal oscillations, episodic atmospheric forcing events and long term trends, mainly due to climate change. The latter contributes in the means sea level, but affects the rare extreme phenomena too, both on their frequency and intensity.

Thus, a quantitative assessment of risks deriving from the sea level variations needs a robust quantification of all the elements bringing the sea level to become a hazard. In addition, it is required to define best practices on how to use mean sea level rise trends together with shorter time scales effects, in engaging risk assessment processes, according to the specific impacts.

Usually, scientific knowledge enters in the everyday use when its degree of uncertainty has already been reduced below a threshold, that keeps the contribution of that uncertainties marginal with respect to those of all the other sources of information, which enter in the realization of the practical result.

This is not the case of the adaptation and resilience solutions facing the impacts of sea level rise, due to climate change. In fact, future sea level scenario cannot be considered a robust parameter of the risk assessment process. On the other hand, stakeholders need to decide which kind of actions to adopt to minimize the impacts of a sea level.

To go beyond that weakness, we developed and tested a methodology to bring the scientific information, together with its uncertainty, into the risk assessment procedures.

Scientific information is not considered as a robust parameter anymore, but it is brought into the risk assessment as an ensemble of information, directly from numerical climate simulations. The sensitivity of the simulated impacts, from the hazard input data, transfers the scientific information into risk uncertainty.

Here we present the assessment cascade, that propagates the uncertainty on climate sea level rise and that on short term sea level variations along the risk assessment procedures down to the impact projection. Furthermore, the presentation of best practices is supported by examples of applications, that are aimed to help the stakeholder to flow the scientific information throughout the risk assessment logic.

The applications are summarized as ensembles of simulated impact and related risk curves as a function of the widely and commonly defined Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 3.0 °C, 4.0 °C).

This work has been conducted with the contribution from the EU co-financing in the frame of the Interreg Euro-MED Programme, thanks to the MedSeaRise Project.

How to cite: Giaiotti, D., Minigher, A., Pittaro, F., Gianesini, E., and Pittis, M.: A methodology to transfer the uncertainty on future sea level scenarios into the risk assessment of related impacts, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-681, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-681, 2025.