Avalanche Forecasting in Slovenia: Data, Methods, and Operational Challenges

Avalanches are the most fatal natural hazard in Slovenia, causing on average one death per year. In recent decades, almost all victims have been recreational users in the mountains – alpinists and backcountry skiers. These users are consequently the primary targets of avalanche danger assessments and warnings, issued by the national avalanche warning service, which is organized within the Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO). 

The bulletin is published during the avalanche season three times per week and in cases of necessity also more often, typically covering the Slovenian Alps. Assessments are based on a combination of data sources, including automatic weather stations, field observations, reports from neighboring services, and the numerical snowpack model CROCUS. The forecasts and warnings are prepared in accordance with the guidelines of the European Avalanche Warning Services (EAWS), ensuring harmonized danger levels and terminology. 

Risk communication channels play a crucial role. The avalanche bulletin is therefore made available through multiple platforms, including the web, mobile apps, and increasingly social media, reaching both recreational users and decision-makers such as mountain rescue service and civil protection authorities. 

This contribution presents the operational workflow of the Slovenian avalanche warning service, with an emphasis on the use of meteorological data and modelling. We highlight both the benefits and limitations of current tools, including challenges in data availability, model interpretation, and forecast verification. 

Opportunities for future development are outlined/presented, including the expansion of high-altitude automatic stations network, enhanced snowpack profiling and model improvements. A major upcoming step is integration into ALBINA – an open-source, multilingual avalanche forecasting platform that supports cross-border collaboration and standardized communication. 

Lastly, we reflect on how changing climate conditions impact avalanche hazard forecasting in Slovenia – with rising snow lines, changes in snow structure, and altered timing and frequency of avalanche events – posing new challenges for operational services and risk mitigation strategies.