A roadmap to Multi-Risk Impact-Based Early Warning System for Weather and Geo Hazards in Europe

Traditional Early Warning Systems (EWS) emphasize the physical aspects of hazards. Yet, recent advancements stress the importance of impact-based forecasts that instead focus on societal effects, including infrastructure damage and service disruption. The UN’s Sendai Framework and the WMO’s Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL) initiatives underscore the need for accessible multi-hazard warning systems to reduce disaster risks worldwide, especially for vulnerable regions prone to complex hazards. Probabilistic forecasting is increasingly used to enhance reliability and skill, combining event likelihood with potential impacts to inform decision-making.

The Horizon Europe project GOBEYOND’s vision is to revolutionize disaster risk management by developing and implementing a Multi-Risk Impact-based Early Warning System (MR-IEWS) for geo and weather hazards. By integrating impact-based forecasting, the project will provide timely and accurate warnings to empower decision-makers, emergency responders, and communities. The risks include multiple natural hazards, both weather-driven (floods, flash floods, droughts, storm surges, windstorms, extreme heat and wildfires) and geophysical (earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides and volcanoes).

A major challenge is that the hazard systems vary in lead times and spatial coverage, ranging from seconds for earthquakes to months for droughts and from localized areas to broad geographic extents. Additionally, different standards and protocols are being used for data acquisition, distribution, analysis and disseminating forecast outputs. Tools such as satellite imagery, seismometers, and weather radars enable real-time monitoring and hazard prediction, utilizing thresholds based on scientific data to issue warnings. For some hazards (especially weather-related hazards), recent machine learning developments enhance risk forecasts, allowing for more refined impact scenarios and better decision-support tools. Effective communication is critical, with warnings disseminated through media, mobile devices, and community networks tailored to local needs to foster responsiveness and preparedness. Community involvement is vital to ensure relevance and encourage proactive measures.

The study presents a roadmap of weather and geohazard warning systems on local, regional and European scale, emphasizing the need for continuous adaptation and innovation. Feedback mechanisms and resilience-building strategies are essential to keeping MR-IEWS effective in an evolving risk landscape and supporting communities’ readiness in the face of increasing environmental and societal challenges.