Mediterranean warming amplified the convective environment during the December 2024 severe thunderstorm at Rome-Fiumicino Airport

Extreme convective events are increasingly challenging aviation operations, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the central Mediterranean. This study investigates the atmospheric conditions associated with the severe late-autumn thunderstorm that disrupted operations at Rome–Fiumicino Airport on 13 December 2024. Using a conditional analogue-based framework applied to ERA5 reanalysis data, we identify past events characterized by similar synoptic and mesoscale circulation patterns over the satellite era (1979–present), and compare their associated environmental conditions between a historical baseline (1979–2000) and a recent period (2002–2023).

Our results suggest that the large-scale dynamical structure of circulation patterns has broadly remained unchanged over time. However, the thermodynamic background has undergone significant changes, marked by increased near-surface air and warmer sea surface temperatures across the Mediterranean basin. These shifts favor low-level moisture availability and atmospheric instability, leading to more favorable conditions for intense convection. Correspondingly, similar events in the recent period are associated with increased precipitation, stronger wind shear, and higher convective potential. Furthermore, observations at Rome–Fiumicino Airport reveal statistically significant increases in mean wind speed and maximum wind gusts, along with higher dew-point temperatures and reduced visibility in recent decades. These factors are critical for aviation safety, as they can affect aircraft handling and increase the likelihood of operational disruptions. Finally, the absence of significant changes in large-scale climate variability modes suggests that these trends are primarily driven by gradual thermodynamic warming rather than internal variability.
Overall, the findings support the hypothesis that climate change is amplifying the impacts of convective events by intensifying the environmental conditions in which they develop, even when the underlying circulation patterns remain similar. This has important implications for aviation risk assessment and for understanding the evolving nature of late-season convection in the Mediterranean region.

Acknowledgements

This research has been carried out with funding from Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca under the call Fondo Italiano per la Scienza 2022-2023 (FIS-2) for the project "Mediterranean Extreme Events and Tipping elements in a changing climate on multiple spatiotemporal scales", grant number FIS-2023-00159, CUP: D53C24005450001.