Climate Stress, Conflict Dynamics, and Forced Migration from the MENA Region: Implications for Security and Sustainable Development

This study analyses how climate stress, violent conflict, and socioeconomic instability interact to shape patterns of forced migration from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to the European Union (EU). Using high-resolution climate, conflict, and socioeconomic data covering the period 2000–2023, we develop an integrated empirical framework to identify the primary determinants of cross-border asylum flows. A machine-learning approach based on a Random Forest Model (RFM) is employed and benchmarked against the traditional Gravity Model (GM). By capturing nonlinear effects and complex interactions among drivers, the RFM substantially outperforms the GM, explaining more than 53% of the observed variation in migration flows.

 

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has become a focal point of intersecting climate stress, violent conflict, and large-scale human displacement, with significant implications for regional stability and migration governance beyond its borders. This study examines how climate variability interacts with conflict and socioeconomic fragility to influence forced migration from MENA countries to the European Union (EU). Using high-resolution climate, conflict, and socioeconomic data spanning the period 2000–2023, the analysis develops an integrated empirical framework to identify the key drivers shaping cross-border asylum flows. 

To capture the complexity of migration dynamics, the study applies a machine-learning approach using a Random Forest Model (RFM) and compares its predictive performance with that of the conventional Gravity Model (GM). The results demonstrate that the RFM substantially outperforms the GM, explaining over 53% of the observed variation in asylum applications. This improvement reflects the model’s ability to account for nonlinear relationships and interactions among environmental, political, and economic variables.

 

The findings reveal that violent conflict and economic instability are the primary determinants of forced migration from the MENA region. Climate-related stressors, particularly prolonged droughts, rising temperatures, and declining agricultural productivity, do not independently trigger large-scale displacement. Instead, they function as threat multipliers that intensify existing vulnerabilities, weaken livelihoods, and exacerbate conflict-related pressures, thereby increasing the likelihood of forced mobility. These results underscore that migration surges emerge from the convergence of environmental stress, political instability, and socioeconomic deprivation rather than from climatic factors in isolation. 

 

By highlighting the compound nature of climate-related displacement, this study contributes to ongoing debates on climate security and migration governance. The findings emphasise the need for integrated policy responses that combine short-term humanitarian assistance with long-term investments in climate adaptation, conflict prevention, and economic resilience. A key limitation of the analysis is its exclusive focus on asylum applications to the EU, which excludes internal and regional displacement dynamics and relies on country-level predictive modelling that cannot establish causal relationships or capture subnational variation in climate–conflict interactions.