Long-term solar energy production simulations and climate indices for two demonstration cases in Morocco and Greece - results from the ReEnergy-MED project

Climate data is essential for simulating, planning, and operating energy systems, particularly with the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources and the need for climate resilience. The countries around the Mediterranean Sea -  a global climate change hotspot - face a critical challenge. The energy demand is expected to increase, creating tensions on energy security and environmental impacts.

In the frame of the ReEnergy-MED project supported by the Copernicus Joint Services, high-quality current data (both reanalysis and in-situ) along with downscaled future climate projections have been used for solar energy production simulations for two demonstration cases: Ouarzazate in South-Central Morocco and Evros in Northern Greece. The ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets served as a basis for the present climate analysis. For long-term projections - near (2031-2060) and distant future (2071-2100) - three CMIP6 GCM models were employed under three SSP-RCP emission scenarios. The long-term climate projections were statistically downscaled using the ERA5-Land as a reference dataset, in order to provide finer-resolution climate information. The generated energy production simulations, conducted with the Global Solar Energy Estimator (GSEE), were validated against in-situ observations provided by the energy producers collaborating on this project. Additionally, to enhance the collaborative development approach, two climate indices relevant to solar panel efficiency, as recommended by the energy producers, were computed for the long-term periods. Utilising appropriate climate data ensures that the energy simulations accurately reflect changing climate conditions and, in turn, the integration of the projected long-term changes in the solar energy potential will contribute to national and regional planning and a sustainable future.

Funding: This work has received funding from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts under framework agreement ECMWF/COPERNICUS/2024/CJS_155b_NOA-A for the provision of demonstration cases to support renewable energy transition across the Mediterranean