The CLIMAAX agricultural drought workflow: design, application and results from the Valcerrina municipalities.

Agricultural systems are increasingly threatened by climate change, which is aggravating the challenge of meeting international food production goals while respecting planetary resource boundaries. Europe is already experiencing more frequent and intense drought events, with damages to the agricultural sector projected to escalate in the near future. Semi-arid regions will be more prone to water shortages and will be forced to reduce allocations to irrigation to satisfy other public needs. At the same time, seasonal water scarcity is becoming more frequent in historically wet regions, hindering the potential of rainfed systems to satisfy the growing agricultural production demand. In this context, a transition towards more drought-resilient agricultural systems and land planning  is urgently needed to limit losses across the European food production system.

To help guide these urgent adaptation efforts, we present an interactive workflow developed within the CLIMAAX project quantifying the potential lost-opportunity cost of not investing in adequate irrigation systems under climate change. Our tool is applicable from the municipality to the national level and allows stakeholders to assess the potential economic losses caused by climate change on crop yields in rainfed agricultural systems. The workflow applies the CLIMAAX risk framework methodology and defines risk as the combination of projected variations in crop yields due to climate change (hazard), current agricultural production (exposure) and existing irrigation availability (vulnerability).

We showcase the application of the workflow in the “Unione dei Comuni della Valcerrina”, a union of municipalities located in southeastern Piedmont, northern Italy. The local economy relies heavily on agriculture and the agri-food sector, with high-value crops such as vineyards and hazelnuts cultivated in the hilly areas, and arable crops grown in the alluvial plains of the River Po. Drought represents an emerging climate risk in the region, for which the local community remains largely unprepared, as evidenced by the limited availability of irrigation infrastructure.

For the case-study, the workflow is expanded to incorporate local data on soil types, crop types and parameters, leading to an improved characterization of the hazard component. In addition, parcel-level information on cropping patterns, average crop yields, and crop market values, are integrated in the risk assessment to provide a more accurate estimation of potential economic losses. Results indicate that losses could reach up to EUR 750,000 over the 2036–2060 time horizon under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. These findings offer valuable economic insights for agricultural stakeholders to evaluate the costs and benefits of investing in irrigation infrastructure and support public authorities in the development of effective drought risk management strategies.